ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Best track down to 130kt.

AL, 13, 2023090812, , BEST, 0, 179N, 541W, 130, 940, HU

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think people forget that generally it is extremely hard for a hurricane to maintain a Cat 5 intensity. They usually go up and down in intensity. It is very rare for a storm to maintain cat 5 for more than 4 or 5 hours

[ElectricStorm]

Wow, wasn't expecting it to take that big of a hit overnight. Based on this recon pass I'd go 120kts. I wouldn't be surprised if it makes another run for Cat 5 though

[Teban54]

Looks like the eye is clearing out some and pressure is holding steady at around 940 mb between the last three recon passes. Shear has likely lowered allowing Lee to maintain its current intensity.

There's still a lot of lightning in the eyewall. I expect Lee to reintensify once shear abates. Both the 0z HAFS models show another peak with pressure into the 910s tomorrow night.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Lee’s peak may have yet to come. A lot of storms that battled shear at this point rebounded quickly afterwards. Ivan, for instance.

[GCANE]

Looks like around Sunday when its at roughly 23.5N 63.5W it'll be under the Anti-Cyclonic Wave Break created by the big trough over the east CONUS.
Trough has a very significant positive tilt.
Still will be over high OHC water and am seeing a CAPE infeed from the Carib.
May see a burst of strengthening then.

[kronotsky]

Eyewall lightning is still pretty constant, and the core still looks quite good on recent microwaves. No reason why this shouldn't re-intensify if shear relaxes.

[BobHarlem]

There's still a lot of lightning in the eyewall.

 https://twitter.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1700135817354584536

[dukeblue219]

There's still a lot of lightning in the eyewall.

https://twitter.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1700135817354584536

This is worth a watch even for die-hard Never Twitterers.

[ElectricStorm]

Welp looks like the weakening didn't last for long lol

[aspen]

This pass supports somewhere between 130-140 kt. It all depends on how much stock you put into the SFMR readings. Extrapolated pressure is up a little bit but it’s a far smaller increase than before.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1700128601054548000

[ElectricStorm]

This pass supports somewhere between 130-140 kt. It all depends on how much stock you put into the SFMR readings. Extrapolated pressure is up a little bit but it’s a far smaller increase than before.

Very high rain rate on that SFMR, not sure I trust it. I'd probably go 130kts for now but it's quickly improving on IR with new convection wrapping around. I'm expecting another Cat 5 run soon

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1700143688490291274

[CronkPSU]

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1700128601054548000

that eye is clearing out quickly again...starting to look more like a pacific storm if those spiral bands continue forming like that

[GCANE]

With the saturated eye, lessening shear, and high rain rate; maybe a borderline pinhole.
Should get a VDM shortly

[aspen]

Looks like the NOAA plane found a tiny pressure drop between passes. If shear relaxes and stays relaxed, perhaps we’re going to see it bomb out again today.

[HurricaneEnzo]

I'm guessing it's still more or less in a steady/stable state. Don't expect much change strength wise from recon. Probably won't see much strengthening until tomorrow evening or Sunday. I actually feel like it will peak during that timeframe.

[Kazmit]

Jose is that you?

[GCANE]

Oval eye
8x12 nm