Texas Fall 2023

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Portastorm
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#181 Postby Portastorm » Fri Sep 08, 2023 9:46 am

Ntxw wrote:
mmmmsnouts wrote:One thing not helping ERCOT, there's been a noticeable lack of wind with these last couple heat waves. Usually there's a hot breeze blowing, but it seems like the ridge is so strong and so sprawling that other weather features can't even get close to it and create enough pressure difference to cause wind. The TCEQ action days this year have been mainly for ozone and stagnant air rather than wind-blown pollutants.


Ercot noted it was transmission/frequency that was the issue. Wind underperforming does happen but the blip in this case was the wind generation from coastal South Texas couldn't make it up to the rest of the state because of the transmission issues.

We got one more very hot day then it is downhill from here. So ready for it!


Yeah if we can get past today/tonight, we should be in the clear until next summer ... whatever that portends. I like the numbers I'm seeing on the ensembles for next week for both North and Central Texas.

In the meantime, here's to all of us getting some rainfall and cooler temperatures in the next week. Lord knows we have suffered enough!
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#182 Postby Edwards Limestone » Fri Sep 08, 2023 9:55 am

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#183 Postby HoustonFrog » Fri Sep 08, 2023 10:19 am



Congrats to everyone except Houston and far south Texas. Sucks
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#184 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Sep 08, 2023 10:41 am

I'm getting a little nervous at the GFS shifting the core of the heaviest rain south. It could remove that last little area over DFW in another run or two.

But, it still shows rain. It's just a matter of 1 vs. 3 inches etc. The Euro is still further north mainly, and so the truth is somewhere in between.

Hopefully it's enough south that Austin/SA can get in on this.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#185 Postby DallasAg » Fri Sep 08, 2023 11:05 am

100F at 11:00a for DFW, but showers starting to pop in Collin and Denton counties, albeit rather unimpressive returns. Maybe some of this can work their way towards the metro and stave off a race toward 110F?

Summer 2023 is definitely trying to go out with a bang.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#186 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Sep 08, 2023 11:45 am

12z Hi-res models have basically ditched rain chances for DFW this evening and then the globals have shifted next week's rainfall focus to the SW of DFW. The more things change... lol
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#187 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Sep 08, 2023 12:12 pm

bubba hotep wrote:12z Hi-res models have basically ditched rain chances for DFW this evening and then the globals have shifted next week's rainfall focus to the SW of DFW. The more things change... lol


Tonight was only 30 percent so no biggie.

But, hopefully models are just adjusting too far next week.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#188 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Sep 08, 2023 12:16 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:12z Hi-res models have basically ditched rain chances for DFW this evening and then the globals have shifted next week's rainfall focus to the SW of DFW. The more things change... lol


Tonight was only 30 percent so no biggie.

But, hopefully models are just adjusting too far next week.

Any rain would be welcome. Clouds and cooler temps are a lock. I'm happy.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#189 Postby aggiecutter » Fri Sep 08, 2023 12:31 pm

Compare and Contrast at Noon:
Image
Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#190 Postby cstrunk » Fri Sep 08, 2023 1:18 pm

aggiecutter wrote:Compare and Contrast at Noon:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/bWK6qc7/Dallas.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/GTbVV16/Texarkana.jpg [/url]


The outflow definitely cooled down most of NE TX... but I'm afraid it may have killed most of our rain chances too for this afternoon/evening. Maybe we'll get lucky later into tonight. Guess we'll see.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#191 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Sep 08, 2023 1:56 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:12z Hi-res models have basically ditched rain chances for DFW this evening and then the globals have shifted next week's rainfall focus to the SW of DFW. The more things change... lol


Tonight was only 30 percent so no biggie.

But, hopefully models are just adjusting too far next week.


17z HRRR brings it back a bit and FWD is still holding 40% pops out my way. But the 12z Euro isn't worried about next week :rain:

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#192 Postby Edwards Limestone » Fri Sep 08, 2023 3:47 pm

Looks like it's 12z Euro (NTX) vs. 12z GFS (Hill Country) for precip maxima. Epic battle!

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#193 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Sep 08, 2023 3:52 pm

111.9 so far today. :grr:
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#194 Postby tajmahal » Fri Sep 08, 2023 3:58 pm

Yesterday, low electricity frequencies did not prevent electricity generated in south Texas from flowing to the remainder of Texas.
Last edited by tajmahal on Fri Sep 08, 2023 4:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#195 Postby mmmmsnouts » Fri Sep 08, 2023 4:02 pm

If DFW ticks up to 108 it would be the hottest temperature ever recorded this late in the season.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#196 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Sep 08, 2023 4:04 pm

Got up to 111 on my backyard station. Geez. Think that ties my max for the summer.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#197 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 08, 2023 4:12 pm

tajmahal wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Ercot noted it was transmission/frequency that was the issue. Wind underperforming does happen but the blip in this case was the wind generation from coastal South Texas couldn't make it up to the rest of the state because of the transmission issues.


Low frequency did not prevent electricity generated in south Texas from flowing to the remainder of Texas.


What's up with you constantly correcting people? A few weeks ago, you got highly offended by the word cockroach, and now this back and forth off topic stuff. It's making this forum really un-enjoyable.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#198 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 08, 2023 4:13 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:111.9 so far today. :grr:


Haha, man I am so over this heat. This Summer can go away now. I can't even get into my annual Fall spirit because it's just too hot to even think it's Fall yet. :lol:
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#199 Postby Gotwood » Fri Sep 08, 2023 4:15 pm

SoupBone wrote:
tajmahal wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Ercot noted it was transmission/frequency that was the issue. Wind underperforming does happen but the blip in this case was the wind generation from coastal South Texas couldn't make it up to the rest of the state because of the transmission issues.


Low frequency did not prevent electricity generated in south Texas from flowing to the remainder of Texas.


What's up with you constantly correcting people? A few weeks ago, you got highly offended by the word cockroach, and now this back and forth off topic stuff. It's making this forum really un-enjoyable.

I second this really odd stuff. Summer definitely went out with a bang today I’m ready for the rain.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#200 Postby TexasBreeze » Fri Sep 08, 2023 4:22 pm

Talking about ercot and the states energy transmission isn't really off topic. The weather directly affects the energy production and it is important to relay any grid issues here due to possible rolling blackouts. The weather is too hot to be worried about power issues, but they can happen.
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