ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion
Lee's symmetry is certainly better than a few hours ago, but as long as it remains so lopsided it won't intensify much
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HurricaneEnzo
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion
Visible looks better, IR tells a different story it looks more or less like it has the last several hours. CDO is still getting squished on West side from shear.
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dukeblue219
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion
ElectricStorm wrote:Recon hasn't updated in nearly 30min
Maybe not on Tidbits but it's updated as of 16:37Z on tropicalatlantic.com which seems to often be more reliable
Last edited by dukeblue219 on Fri Sep 08, 2023 11:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion
dukeblue219 wrote:ElectricStorm wrote:Recon hasn't updated in nearly 30min
Maybe not on Tidbits but it's updated as of 16:37Z on tropicalatlantic.com which seems to often be more reliable
Back up on Tidbits now too
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Deshaunrob17
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion
I Dont get how this shear surprised people… Yesterday the 20kt shear zone was present NW of the system.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion
Deshaunrob17 wrote:I Dont get how this shear surprised people… Yesterday the 20kt shear zone was present NW of the system.
They were hoping that the upper-level Anticyclone would follow Lee
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion
939mb extrap so pressure is likely around the same but we'll see what the drop has.
Once again SFMR is much higher than FL but with a really high rain rate. I'm wondering if those super high rain rates are causing unreliable SFMR readings
Once again SFMR is much higher than FL but with a really high rain rate. I'm wondering if those super high rain rates are causing unreliable SFMR readings
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion
I am somewhat confused on why Lee is moving NW and the steering patterns favor west motion
700-850 mb
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4247.gif
200-700 mb
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S424I.gif
700-850 mb
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4247.gif
200-700 mb
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S424I.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion
In NW eyewall
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 140 kts (161.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 140 kts (161.1 mph)
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion
Airboy wrote:In NW eyewall
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 140 kts (161.1 mph)
Likely flagged because of the rain rate of ~75 mm/hr
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:I am somewhat confused on why Lee is moving NW and the steering patterns favor west motion
700-850 mb
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4247.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4247.gif
200-700 mb
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S424I.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S424I.gif
could be that invisible east coast force field that the models don't account for ...just kidding
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 17:18Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306
Storm Name: Lee
Storm Number & Year: 13 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 26
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 16:52:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18.47N 54.85W
B. Center Fix Location: 736 statute miles (1,184 km) to the E (90°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,623m (8,606ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 942mb (27.82 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 96kts (110.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the SE (138°) of center fix at 16:50:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 227° at 117kts (From the SW at 134.6mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the SE (138°) of center fix at 16:50:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 140kts (161.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 5 nautical miles to the NW (315°) of center fix at 16:53:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 49° at 117kts (From the NE at 134.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the NW (315°) of center fix at 16:54:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,004m (9,856ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 128kts (~ 147.3mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the ENE (57°) from the flight level center at 15:27:00Z
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 17:18Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306
Storm Name: Lee
Storm Number & Year: 13 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 26
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 16:52:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18.47N 54.85W
B. Center Fix Location: 736 statute miles (1,184 km) to the E (90°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,623m (8,606ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 942mb (27.82 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 96kts (110.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the SE (138°) of center fix at 16:50:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 227° at 117kts (From the SW at 134.6mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the SE (138°) of center fix at 16:50:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 140kts (161.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 5 nautical miles to the NW (315°) of center fix at 16:53:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 49° at 117kts (From the NE at 134.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the NW (315°) of center fix at 16:54:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,004m (9,856ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 128kts (~ 147.3mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the ENE (57°) from the flight level center at 15:27:00Z
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion
With how small the eye has become, I wonder if we'll see a period of very rapid intensification once shear abates before the (likely inevitable) EWRC.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:I am somewhat confused on why Lee is moving NW and the steering patterns favor west motion
700-850 mb
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4247.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4247.gif
200-700 mb
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S424I.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S424I.gif
He’s moving WNW/295° which that steering current map appears to show for his current location. Then he bends more west over the weekend before slowing and hopefully turning around the periphery of the ridge.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion
Teban54 wrote:With how small the eye has become, I wonder if we'll see a period of very rapid intensification once shear abates before the (likely inevitable) EWRC.
Well, the odds of an EWRC have gone down based on the microwave passes
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S428b.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion
After AF306, when is the next recon mission?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion
This could be epic if a big hot tower fires close to sun down.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion
Did we lose the mesoscale close up loop?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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