ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[brad512]

To be honest it doesn't even look like a 150 mph storm right now, althought think they were finding those winds a few hours ago but I think then it at least had some sort of pinhole structure, but that completely left the building in the last hour or so.

[aspen]

There goes the eye on visible. I think the 12z HAFS-B will be spot-on in the short term.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like recon is about to take off. Any initial guesses? I'll go with 115kts/951mb

[cycloneye]

My lowest pressure from recon will be 948 mbs and the highest winds will be 120kts.

[galaxy401]

110 kts and 953 mb is my guess.

[brad512]

Based on the trend of how it looks I'm gonna guess 110/947 by the time they get there, and that they will start catching the early stages of re-intensification (or it staying steady at least) by the time they've done a few passes.

[Coolcruiseman]

The moderate shear and dry mid-level air that has affected Lee
today is not expected to abate during the next 12-24 hours. After
that time, the upper-level wind pattern could become a little more
conducive for re-strengthening. However, the timing of eyewall
replacement cycles makes it difficult to predict when Lee might
re-intensify.

Seems like the NHC isn't confident on what the shear will do either. They seem to imply the shear might not go away anytime soon.

This shear really came out of nowhere. The hurricane models were forecasting a phenomenal environment until around Tuesday, a little before it starts its turn.

A great example of how a no-turn could come out of nowhere. Which is why it’s important to not just write off a Bahamas/Florida impact.

[GeneralChow]

956Mb with 110-115 Knot Winds

[RevanTheJedi96]

961Mb with 100-110 Knot Winds

[RevanTheJedi96]

Based on the trend of how it looks I'm gonna guess 110/947 by the time they get there, and that they will start catching the early stages of re-intensification (or it staying steady at least) by the time they've done a few passes.

Lee isn't supposed to reintensify till after Saturday

[lafaa]

The moderate shear and dry mid-level air that has affected Lee
today is not expected to abate during the next 12-24 hours. After
that time, the upper-level wind pattern could become a little more
conducive for re-strengthening. However, the timing of eyewall
replacement cycles makes it difficult to predict when Lee might
re-intensify.

Seems like the NHC isn't confident on what the shear will do either. They seem to imply the shear might not go away anytime soon.

This shear really came out of nowhere. The hurricane models were forecasting a phenomenal environment until around Tuesday, a little before it starts its turn.

A great example of how a no-turn could come out of nowhere. Which is why it’s important to not just write off a Bahamas/Florida impact.

Shear is way more difficult to predict than large steering patterns, there's no indication this storm will affect the Bahamas let alone FL.

[Hurricane2022]

112 kt FL, 966 mb extrap

[wxman57]

Lee is a relatively small hurricane. As such, it is more susceptible to environmental changes (shear). The SW shear that hit it today has really taken its toll. As soon as the shear lets up, it should regain strength. Whether it reaches Cat 5 again, who knows? It's very hard to reach and maintain such intensity, particularly once it turns north. Looks like it is Nova Scotia bound. I was measuring predicted TS wind radii yesterday and came up with about 475-500 nm across by the time it's east of Cape Cod. About 290 of that was east of the center. That is WAY larger than normal, which is closer to 130-140nm radii.

[GeneralChow]

961Mb with 100-110 Knot Winds

Damn. I was thinking about going with 962 and 105 or 110 Knots, but I thought it was a little too bold.

[mantis83]

Lee: the rise and fall of a legend.....

[MarioProtVI]

Something I noticed: Sam underwent this exact same type of scenario, having a very fast RI period, peaking at Cat 4/5, then collapses. Sam ended up recovering from that and ended up rebounding and achieved a second peak days later. Probably the same will happen with Lee, except maybe this time it can reach C5 again.

[Hurricaneman]

Seems to be putting itself back together

[Hurricane2022]

The eyewall is almost gone

[ScottNAtlanta]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/wvZd5fBQ_nU[/youtube]

Accuweather

[wxman57]

I was measuring model predictions of Lee's 39 mph wind field size as it passes east of Cape Cod. I get 270/270/215/230 (NE/SE/SW/NW). That would put Cape Cod in 40-45 mph winds and coastal Maine at 30-40 mph winds as it heads toward Halifax. Wind field will be more than twice what it is now, but the winds will not be nearly as strong near the center. Even if it had the same pressure as now, the winds would be lower due to the expanded pressure gradient.