ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[crimi481]

Lee is a fighter. Fighting off that un forecasted shear and some SAL. Same as last storm in S.E. Gulf.
Mother Nature always in charge - with "x" factors we can't always predict.

[eastcoastFL]

The moderate shear and dry mid-level air that has affected Lee
today is not expected to abate during the next 12-24 hours. After
that time, the upper-level wind pattern could become a little more
conducive for re-strengthening. However, the timing of eyewall
replacement cycles makes it difficult to predict when Lee might
re-intensify.

Seems like the NHC isn't confident on what the shear will do either. They seem to imply the shear might not go away anytime soon.

This shear really came out of nowhere. The hurricane models were forecasting a phenomenal environment until around Tuesday, a little before it starts its turn.

A great example of how a no-turn could come out of nowhere. Which is why it’s important to not just write off a Bahamas/Florida impact.

How does this effect the ridge and steering?

[ElectricStorm]

Shear map as of 21z (about an hour and a half ago) Still 20-25kts of shear over the center with the anticyclone displaced well to the south

[TheDreamTraveler]

Lee's looking awful right now

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1700270889831637213

[Keldeo1997]

It would just be our luck if this thing weakened to the point it misses the weakness, gets in the gulf and comes back to life.

[ThunderForce]

I can't even tell if Lee is still moving WNW or not.

[SouthernBreeze]

I can't even tell if Lee is still moving WNW or not.

I'm seeing a little WNW from over the past few hours when I marked it's position, but seems to have really slowed down

[dukeblue219]

I can't even tell if Lee is still moving WNW or not.

I'm seeing a little WNW from over the past few hours when I marked it's position, but seems to have really slowed down

I'm not even sure where the eye is going to pop out next. It seems to be recentering to the SW of the old eye.

[brad512]

It won't be much longer now, honestly I'm gonna back off a bit even and go with 105kt/952.

[GeneralChow]

I can't even tell if Lee is still moving WNW or not.

I've been trying to figure that out. It could be going a smidge North of Due West. The vorticity seem elongated at various levels. Mid-Level to the NE and Lower Levels to the SW.

[crimi481]

Kinda looks due west - last hour or so. Is Lee off the forecast track by much?

[GeneralChow]

It won't be much longer now, honestly I'm gonna back off a bit even and go with 105kt/952.

A bit Unsportsmanlike, but I guess there's nothing we can do about it. lol. What was your original call?

[dukeblue219]

Hmm did AF plane just make a U turn? Odd adjustment so close to the storm.

Edit - nope, just making a 360 and the data update was just cutoff in the right place to make it look like a U for 10 minutes

[eastcoastFL]

Kinda looks due west - last hour or so. Is Lee off the forecast track by much?

I saw that too but it appears to be on track

[brad512]

It won't be much longer now, honestly I'm gonna back off a bit even and go with 105kt/952.

A bit Unsportsmanlike, but I guess there's nothing we can do about it. lol. What was your original call?

110/947 haha, looks a bit messy right now the banding seems worse, and I see a bit of dry air on the NE side, although I don't know how close it is to actually be affecting anything.

[WalterWhite]

Shear map as of 21z (about an hour and a half ago) Still 20-25kts of shear over the center with the anticyclone displaced well to the south
https://i.imgur.com/XI8n37L.gif

Once Lee tracks farther WNW, it should enter a zone of low wind shear and start intensifying again.

[aspen]

And here I thought Lee would be peaking today lol. It looks like a dying Cat 3.

[brad512]

And here I thought Lee would be peaking today lol. It looks like a dying Cat 3.

Kind of reminds me of Delta 2020 collapsing all the sudden from a 4 to a 2/1, although I guess we'll have to see if it's as dramatic or not as that was.

[Hurricane2022]

I'll be surprised if recon finds anything above 100 - 105 kts in Lee now

[PavelGaborik10]

Im not even convinced this thing is a major hurricane at this point, looks like a total dumpster fire.

May be 100 KTS, but I doubt it's much more than that.