ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Once it gets north of the VIs it will be out of the shear and will strengthen again

[cheezyWXguy]

I figured they would have found the center north of 19N, half in and half out of the northern edge of the deep convection, just extrapolating off of the precious wnw heading. Seems Lee has turned more west?

[drewschmaltz]

I haven't the ability, but how are the steering currents different for a more shallow storm? Does the current setup favor a weakness and subsequent north motion more for a more shallow or more deep Lee?

[WalterWhite]

They seem to be unable to find adjusted FL winds greater than 100 kt.

[Tekken_Guy]

It does look like Lee is shaping up a bit again on the Tropical Tidbits IR radar, but the wind shear really did a number. It doesn't look like Lee's been moving north much, if at all, the past hour or so either which is worrisome given the possible track implications down the line... but it's hard to tell with the eye gone.

Can you explain?

[wxman57]

Lee really took a hit today. I doubt it will ever reach close to its intensity yesterday. Probably 95-100 kts now. Don't worry about minor wobbles. They won't matter. It's going to butt up against the jet stream around 67W and hook right. Last time we saw such good model consensus was with Idalia.

[ThunderForce]

It does look like Lee is shaping up a bit again on the Tropical Tidbits IR radar, but the wind shear really did a number. It doesn't look like Lee's been moving north much, if at all, the past hour or so either which is worrisome given the possible track implications down the line... but it's hard to tell with the eye gone.

Can you explain?

The "gray" clouds on the IR have it appear that Lee's looking a bit more symmetrical (albeit still missing the top half) compared to about 30 minutes ago or so to me.

[Tekken_Guy]

It does look like Lee is shaping up a bit again on the Tropical Tidbits IR radar, but the wind shear really did a number. It doesn't look like Lee's been moving north much, if at all, the past hour or so either which is worrisome given the possible track implications down the line... but it's hard to tell with the eye gone.

Can you explain?

The "gray" clouds on the IR have it appear that Lee's looking a bit more symmetrical (albeit still missing the top half) compared to about 30 minutes ago or so to me.

I mean about the track.

[dukeblue219]

It does look like Lee is shaping up a bit again on the Tropical Tidbits IR radar

IR is imagery from satellites, in this case GOES 16, not a radar product.

[ThunderForce]

Can you explain?

The "gray" clouds on the IR have it appear that Lee's looking a bit more symmetrical (albeit still missing the top half) compared to about 30 minutes ago or so to me.

I mean about the track.

On the IR on Tropical Tidbits, Lee almost looks to be heading more at a westward or possibly west of due north heading compared to a few hours ago. It's hard to really tell though considering Lee's eye is gone, which made tracking the movement a lot easier.

Speaking of Tropical Tidbits, the data for Lee just updated there. Apparently it's now at 19.0°N 56.0°W, with max winds of 105 knots (about 120 mph) and 958 mb pressure.

[WalterWhite]

Can you explain?

The "gray" clouds on the IR have it appear that Lee's looking a bit more symmetrical (albeit still missing the top half) compared to about 30 minutes ago or so to me.

I mean about the track.

Every degree of latitude Lee fails to gain is an increased landfall risk for people in the Islands, Central America, or the Gulf. If Lee continues to go more north, steering currents would probably steer it out to sea.

[Tekken_Guy]

The "gray" clouds on the IR have it appear that Lee's looking a bit more symmetrical (albeit still missing the top half) compared to about 30 minutes ago or so to me.

I mean about the track.

On the IR on Tropical Tidbits, Lee almost looks to be heading more at a westward or possibly west of due north heading compared to a few hours ago. It's hard to really tell though considering Lee's eye is gone, which made tracking the movement a lot easier.

Speaking of Tropical Tidbits, the data for Lee just updated there. Apparently it's now at 19.0°N 56.0°W, with max winds of 105 knots (about 120 mph) and 958 mb pressure.

What’s the worrisome part about it?

[ElectricStorm]

13L LEE 230909 0000 19.0N 56.0W ATL 105 958

Also the 18z BT point was revised to 125kts instead of 130

[Craters]

Don't forget all the fuel Franklin used up. SST's are lower in the area that Lee is forecast to transverse.

I dunno. They don't look all that low to me.

[ThunderForce]

I mean about the track.

On the IR on Tropical Tidbits, Lee almost looks to be heading more at a westward or possibly west of due north heading compared to a few hours ago. It's hard to really tell though considering Lee's eye is gone, which made tracking the movement a lot easier.

Speaking of Tropical Tidbits, the data for Lee just updated there. Apparently it's now at 19.0°N 56.0°W, with max winds of 105 knots (about 120 mph) and 958 mb pressure.

What’s the worrisome part about it?

WalterWhite pretty much summed it up on his post above.

[PavelGaborik10]

From some of the most impressive deepening to some of the most impressive unexpected weakening I can remember.

This thing has its work cut out for it if it wants to remain even a minimal cat 3, I'm having doubts.

By having doubts do you mean that it could keep weakening until Tropical Storm or will it even restrengthen? Feel like that phrase is vague.

I'm having doubts that we see Lee reintensify into a strong category 4/category 5 again as some of the hurricane models are showing.

I think it's likely a category 2 at the moment based on the recon data I've seen as well.

[PavelGaborik10]

Don't forget all the fuel Franklin used up. SST's are lower in the area that Lee is forecast to transverse.

I dunno. They don't look all that low to me.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Ks8XcnZ/SSTs.jpg [/url]

There's only a small cold pool, and honestly Lee isn't even projected to go over much of it as things stand right now.

Doubt that'll have much, if any impact.

[ElectricStorm]

From some of the most impressive deepening to some of the most impressive unexpected weakening I can remember.

This thing has its work cut out for it if it wants to remain even a minimal cat 3, I'm having doubts.

By having doubts do you mean that it could keep weakening until Tropical Storm or will it even restrengthen? Feel like that phrase is vague.

I'm having doubts that we see Lee reintensify into a strong category 4/category 5 again as some of the hurricane models are showing.

I think it's likely a category 2 at the moment based on the recon data I've seen as well.

I mean both HAFS models weaken it to a lower end Cat 1 and they both get back to Cat 5 in a few days. I wouldn't necessarily bet on another Cat 5 peak but assuming shear lessens in around 24 hours or so it will still have a few days to re-intensify

[Tekken_Guy]

By having doubts do you mean that it could keep weakening until Tropical Storm or will it even restrengthen? Feel like that phrase is vague.

I'm having doubts that we see Lee reintensify into a strong category 4/category 5 again as some of the hurricane models are showing.

I think it's likely a category 2 at the moment based on the recon data I've seen as well.

I mean both HAFS models weaken it to a lower end Cat 1 and they both get back to Cat 5 in a few days. I wouldn't necessarily bet on another Cat 5 peak but assuming shear lessens in around 24 hours or so it will still have a few days to re-intensify

Does Lee face more obstacles to getting back to C5 than it initially had?

[ElectricStorm]

I'm having doubts that we see Lee reintensify into a strong category 4/category 5 again as some of the hurricane models are showing.

I think it's likely a category 2 at the moment based on the recon data I've seen as well.

I mean both HAFS models weaken it to a lower end Cat 1 and they both get back to Cat 5 in a few days. I wouldn't necessarily bet on another Cat 5 peak but assuming shear lessens in around 24 hours or so it will still have a few days to re-intensify

Does Lee face more obstacles to getting back to C5 than it initially had?

I think it just depends on how soon shear starts to decrease. The sooner that happens the better chance it will have but it's basically just a wait and see game at his point