ATL: LEE - Models

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS phases with the trough and landfalls at the Maine/Nova Scotia border

[RevanTheJedi96]

WTF the 0z GFS now has Lee stalling right near the Gulf of Maine and doing a left hook like Sandy. Another west shift compared to 18z.

[PavelGaborik10]

The GFS just kind of stalls Lee off the coast of SW Nova Scotia/Maine again and.....just kind of kills it before finally bringing onshore Southern Nova Scotia as a weakened mess.

Again, very reminiscent of Teddy with the early phase. This would be a much better solution than what it was showing at 12z.

[RevanTheJedi96]

The GFS just kind of stalls Lee off the coast of SW Nova Scotia/Maine again and.....just kind of kills it before finally bringing onshore Southern Nova Scotia as a weakened mess.

The storm surge alone would mess Maine up bad. I live in Southern Maine and if 0z verifies my town is in a world of trouble.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The GFS just kind of stalls Lee off the coast of SW Nova Scotia/Maine again and.....just kind of kills it before finally bringing onshore Southern Nova Scotia as a weakened mess.

Again, very reminiscent of Teddy with the early phase. This would be a much better solution than what it was showing at 12z.

Of all the storms that have made landfall in Nova Scotia during the past few years (Dorain, Teddy, and Fiona) Teddy did the least amount of damage. Away from the eastern half of NS, he was mostly just a rainy day. Even in eastern NS, the damage paled in comparison to Dorian and Fiona.

[PavelGaborik10]

The GFS just kind of stalls Lee off the coast of SW Nova Scotia/Maine again and.....just kind of kills it before finally bringing onshore Southern Nova Scotia as a weakened mess.

The storm surge alone would mess Maine up bad. I live in Southern Maine and if 0z verifies my town is in a world of trouble.

I'm not sure exactly what kind of surge that type of run would produce, it's winds are pathetic by the time it actually makes landfall.

Models seem to be coming to consensus of a significantly weakened Lee down the line.

We will see if this trend is temporary, or if this will become a reality.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The GFS just kind of stalls Lee off the coast of SW Nova Scotia/Maine again and.....just kind of kills it before finally bringing onshore Southern Nova Scotia as a weakened mess.

The storm surge alone would mess Maine up bad. I live in Southern Maine and if 0z verifies my town is in a world of trouble.

I'm not sure exactly what kind of surge that type of run would produce, it's winds are pathetic by the time it actually makes landfall.

Models seem to be coming to consensus of a significantly weakened Lee down the line.

We will see if this trend is temporary, or if this will become a reality.

I like no I love the sound of that.

[PavelGaborik10]

The GFS just kind of stalls Lee off the coast of SW Nova Scotia/Maine again and.....just kind of kills it before finally bringing onshore Southern Nova Scotia as a weakened mess.

Again, very reminiscent of Teddy with the early phase. This would be a much better solution than what it was showing at 12z.

Of all the storms that have made landfall in Nova Scotia during the past few years (Dorain, Teddy, and Fiona) Teddy did the least amount of damage. Away from the easter half of NS, he was mostly just a rainy day.

I was in Eastern Nova Scotia for all of them, Teddy was hardly more than a breeze with some rain in Eastern CB as well.

It's interesting seeing the GFS showing something extremely similar here with Lee, albeit in the extreme long range.

This could be a very good thing if it does indeed phase early well offshore.

Some positive signs for Nova Scotia tonight, but quite some time to go.

[Category5Kaiju]

The GFS just kind of stalls Lee off the coast of SW Nova Scotia/Maine again and.....just kind of kills it before finally bringing onshore Southern Nova Scotia as a weakened mess.

Again, very reminiscent of Teddy with the early phase. This would be a much better solution than what it was showing at 12z.

Of all the storms that have made landfall in Nova Scotia during the past few years (Dorain, Teddy, and Fiona) Teddy did the least amount of damage. Away from the eastern half of NS, he was mostly just a rainy day. Even in eastern NS, the damage paled in comparison to Dorian and Fiona.

The storms that inflicted noticeable damage in Canada (Dorian, Fiona, and Igor namely) were all extratropical storms or hurricanes with at least Cat 1 windspeeds. Teddy was an extratropical storm with tropical storm windspeeds when it hit Canada.

[PavelGaborik10]

The GFS just kind of stalls Lee off the coast of SW Nova Scotia/Maine again and.....just kind of kills it before finally bringing onshore Southern Nova Scotia as a weakened mess.

Again, very reminiscent of Teddy with the early phase. This would be a much better solution than what it was showing at 12z.

Of all the storms that have made landfall in Nova Scotia during the past few years (Dorain, Teddy, and Fiona) Teddy did the least amount of damage. Away from the eastern half of NS, he was mostly just a rainy day. Even in eastern NS, the damage paled in comparison to Dorian and Fiona.

The storms that inflicted noticeable damage in Canada (Dorian, Fiona, and Igor namely) were all extratropical storms or hurricanes with at least Cat 1 windspeeds. Teddy was an extratropical storm with tropical storm windspeeds when it hit Canada.

Thanks to the early phase and stall. Until about 4 days out, Teddy was looking like a major impact for the area, maybe not Fiona level, but certainly Dorian caliber.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Of course, the stall out and possible trough-phasing are interesting as they show nothing is written in stone yet. Lee could always phase with the trough further south or get pulled into Boston or Long Island with a negatively titled trough ala Sandy 2012. The long-range models remain erratic.

[RevanTheJedi96]

The GFS just kind of stalls Lee off the coast of SW Nova Scotia/Maine again and.....just kind of kills it before finally bringing onshore Southern Nova Scotia as a weakened mess.

The storm surge alone would mess Maine up bad. I live in Southern Maine and if 0z verifies my town is in a world of trouble.

I'm not sure exactly what kind of surge that type of run would produce, it's winds are pathetic by the time it actually makes landfall.

Models seem to be coming to consensus of a significantly weakened Lee down the line.

We will see if this trend is temporary, or if this will become a reality.

Okay, but the question is in what state will it be and where exactly it'll be located before that phase shift occurs. As someone who could be in the path of this thing, I don't want to be at the mercy of hoping Lee weakens enough before getting to Maine/Nova Scotia.

[PavelGaborik10]

The storm surge alone would mess Maine up bad. I live in Southern Maine and if 0z verifies my town is in a world of trouble.

I'm not sure exactly what kind of surge that type of run would produce, it's winds are pathetic by the time it actually makes landfall.

Models seem to be coming to consensus of a significantly weakened Lee down the line.

We will see if this trend is temporary, or if this will become a reality.

Okay, but the question is in what state will it be and where exactly it'll be located before that phase shift occurs. As someone who could be in the path of this thing, I don't want to be at the mercy of hoping Lee weakens enough before getting to Maine/Nova Scotia.

I'm also potentially in the path of Lee down the line, as are many others in SE Canada and New England.

Unfortunately we don't get a say in how Lee interacts with the trough, we simply have to wait and see.

[LarryWx]

Just like the prior two GEFS runs and the 12Z EPS, the 0Z GEFS has 10% of its members with US landfalls. The three occur 9/15-17 (1 ME, 1 MA, 1 NY). They're all big hits with them at 951, 952, and 964 mb. So, the NE US is still nowhere near in the clear despite the chance of a hit being low. These similar outliers keep showing up.

[ElectricStorm]

0z HAFS-B has a Cat 5 Sunday afternoon, HAFS-A has a Cat 5 Sunday night into Mon morning
HMON has a Cat 4, and HWRF currently running is still the weakest of the four. It's weird seeing the HWRF as the weakest but it's been doing that a few times this season now

[PavelGaborik10]

0z Euro is once again slower at 72 hours...lol

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro 192 300+ miles SSW of 12Z

[PavelGaborik10]

The Euro is way out to sea after failing to have any kind of interaction with the trough.

It's also 30-50+ hours slower than all of the other Global models, it doesn't cross 40 N until 10 days from now.

[RevanTheJedi96]

The Euro is way out to sea after failing to have any kind of interaction with the trough.

It's also 30-50+ hours slower than all of the other Global models, it doesn't cross 40 N until 10 days from now.

I have a tough time imagining Lee not interacting with the trough. This is quite an outlier so far.

[RevanTheJedi96]

I'm not sure exactly what kind of surge that type of run would produce, it's winds are pathetic by the time it actually makes landfall.

Models seem to be coming to consensus of a significantly weakened Lee down the line.

We will see if this trend is temporary, or if this will become a reality.

Okay, but the question is in what state will it be and where exactly it'll be located before that phase shift occurs. As someone who could be in the path of this thing, I don't want to be at the mercy of hoping Lee weakens enough before getting to Maine/Nova Scotia.

Well, really... you "don't want to be at the mercy of" a tropical storm? If you can stop or divert it, by all means, use your Jedi powers to summon The Force and have at it. Otherwise, join the millions of other people who have to deal with this kind of uncertainty every year and do it with resolve instead of whining.

You know what I meant by not wanting to be at the mercy of a large scale Cape Verde hurricane. Don't care if it'll be weaker by the time it gets to the Northeast, our area can barely handle tropical depressions. Stop trying to be an ass.