ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Over the course of this IR loop, you can see the CDO becoming more symmetrical and expanding to the SW, where it had been restricted since the shear hit Lee yesterday. Not sure if it's shear letting up or simply changing direction, but either way, I won't be surprised if it drops sooner than NHC noted in the advisory (24 hours).
https://i.postimg.cc/PqXhhF7Q/goes16-ir-13-L-202309082155.gif

Last frame looked like an eye trying to pop out.

[Tekken_Guy]

Over the course of this IR loop, you can see the CDO becoming more symmetrical and expanding to the SW, where it had been restricted since the shear hit Lee yesterday. Not sure if it's shear letting up or simply changing direction, but either way, I won't be surprised if it drops sooner than NHC noted in the advisory (24 hours).
https://i.postimg.cc/PqXhhF7Q/goes16-ir-13-L-202309082155.gif

The sooner the shear goes away the more likely Lee will get a second chance at Category 5.

[Teban54]

150 kt and 144 kt SFMR with 115 kt FL winds

Edit: On a more serious note, the plane turned back and sampled the N eyewall(?) again, this time finding 120 kt and 119 kt FL winds where it was 115 kt just now. SFMR seems much more believable this time at 96 kt. I'm tempted to say Lee is finally intensifying again, but better wait for a more definitive trend.

Edit 2: My bad, got the data mixed up. 120 kt and 119 kt were on the outbound flight away from the eye, the inbound FL measurements were 114, 115 and 115.

[zzzh]

Shear is decreasing.

[IsabelaWeather]

Over the course of this IR loop, you can see the CDO becoming more symmetrical and expanding to the SW, where it had been restricted since the shear hit Lee yesterday. Not sure if it's shear letting up or simply changing direction, but either way, I won't be surprised if it drops sooner than NHC noted in the advisory (24 hours).
https://i.postimg.cc/PqXhhF7Q/goes16-ir-13-L-202309082155.gif

Last frame looked like an eye trying to pop out.

I have no idea what you are looking at, there was never even a hint of an eye as far as I could tell. Again, people see what they want to see.

[zhukm29]

Very intense lightning in the core.

[REDHurricane]

The worst of the shear appears to be lifting slightly to the north of Lee's center in the past few hours, as can be seen in the wind shear product and improved structure of the west/northwest section of the storm. We will see to what degree Lee will again be free on its mean deep sea spree, no guarantees as he will need the atmosphere to fully agree.

[Hurricaneman]

Very intense lightning in the core.

https://i.ibb.co/dmzryY6/89139890.gif

Yep, this may be intensifying again and I wouldn’t be surprised if the eye clears out by first light in the morning

[Hurricaneman]

I may be getting tired but it seems to have taken a slight south wobble

[GeneralChow]

I may be getting tired but it seems to have taken a slight south wobble

Yeah. It's essentially moved west on the last few frames. According to steering maps, there's a bit more of a WSW flow at various levels of the atmosphere. I just peaked at the latest image, and there's definitely a noticeable Southern wobble.

[ElectricStorm]

Definitely looks better than earlier but I think it will take some time to rebuild the core. Shear does seem to be decreasing though so if that trend continues we should start to see another intensification trend in the next 12-18 hours, but it wouldn't take much for that shear to come back south and start hurting it again

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1700368619174048064

[Craters]

I may be getting tired but it seems to have taken a slight south wobble

Yeah. It's essentially moved west on the last few frames. According to steering maps, there's a bit more of a WSW flow at various levels of the atmosphere. I just peaked at the latest image, and there's definitely a noticeable Southern wobble.

"Southern Wobble" would be a great name for a bourbon. GCANE, take note.

[IsabelaWeather]

Very intense lightning in the core.

https://i.ibb.co/dmzryY6/89139890.gif

This looks like it has rebuilt its eyewall. Could be interesting if true and the W or slightly S of W movement continues for a decent period of time. I am hoping it moves a little closer to PR than expected. We really need some rain.

[kevin]

I think Lee can peak again. But either way we should be really happy with the perfectly timed recon. Had it only been a few hours later we wouldn't have been able to catch Lee's (first) cat 5 peak and we would've had another Eta or Sam situation. So hats off to the NHC and the brave people in those planes.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks a bit south of forecast points. Not a great time for that as it approaches the islands.

[GCANE]

Very dramatic and rapid increase in outflow.
Plainly seen even on IR

[Teban54]

Lee is intensifying again. The eye is back, and it's wasting no time pumping out -90C convective bursts. Looks like there could still be some N or NE shear (don't quote me on that) as that side of the CDO is a bit thin, but it's well ahead of schedule as the NHC didn't expect shear to abate or for Lee to reintensify for another 24 hours.

[GCANE]

Lee has moved farther away from the offset anticyclone, thus reducing shear

[GCANE]

Two factors that are contributing to the reintesification are:
1) Lee is moving thru a positive CAPE gradient
2) Moving into the Anti-Cyclonic Wave Break created by the trough currently over the east coast of FL

Looks like Lee will be under the ARWB and in a favorable CAPE environment for the next 4 days.
OHC will be favorable as well.
Now Lee has a better aerial energy feed than before.
Likely will get back to strong Cat 4.