ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[USTropics]

At a time on Thursday Lee was about the best looking cat2 I’ve ever seen, and now it’s about the ugliest cat3 I’ve ever seen. Just goes to show the value of recon.

I haven’t seen any mw passes in a while, but vis imagery suggests an outer eyewall has wrapped around most of the core, except maybe to the south where the shear is coming from. If so, I wouldn’t expect any strengthening today until the inevitable ERC completes, but I do think the weakening has stopped.

Good pass from about 3 hours ago, shows the pinhole eyewall (reported closed by latest recon pass but open to the west a few hours ago). Also signs of secondary, outer eyewall potentially forming in the northern quadrants. Will have to see if it becomes concentric later today or if the pinhole eye becomes the dominant feature again.

[aspen]

Pressure is up again. Eye drop of 960/27.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not going to lie, I did not expect to see Lee struggle this much.

Still a high chance of second life tomorrow afternoon, but this could drop down to low-end Cat 2 or even Cat 1 today.

[WalterWhite]

FL data supports 80 kt.

[Iceresistance]

Lee doesn't look good at all, with mid-level southerly shear and northerly upper-level shear?


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4bA8.gif

[aspen]

Not going to lie, I did not expect to see Lee struggle this much.

Still a high chance of second life tomorrow afternoon, but this could drop down to low-end Cat 2 or even Cat 1 today.

Lee took one of the biggest Ls I’ve ever seen in the last few years.

[Teban54]

Not going to lie, I did not expect to see Lee struggle this much.

Still a high chance of second life tomorrow afternoon, but this could drop down to low-end Cat 2 or even Cat 1 today.

Lee took one of the biggest Ls I’ve ever seen in the last few years.

I beg to differ, that title belongs to Pamela.

I may have jinxed it by reading up on the Pamela thread again the night before Lee's RI. At least Lee managed to take advantage of the nuclear environment briefly, and got close (depending on your standards) to the forecast intensities, with one of the most impressive RIs in this basin. Pamela never got remotely close before the higher than expected shear took its toll on her.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not going to lie, I did not expect to see Lee struggle this much.

Still a high chance of second life tomorrow afternoon, but this could drop down to low-end Cat 2 or even Cat 1 today.

Lee took one of the biggest Ls I’ve ever seen in the last few years.

Cat 5 to nearly exposed LLC in the span of like 36 hours is quite the feat to be sure. Still very much an El Nino year, despite the insane SSTs.

[aspen]

Not going to lie, I did not expect to see Lee struggle this much.

Still a high chance of second life tomorrow afternoon, but this could drop down to low-end Cat 2 or even Cat 1 today.

Lee took one of the biggest Ls I’ve ever seen in the last few years.

I beg to differ, that title belongs to Pamela.

I may have jinxed it by reading up on the Pamela thread again the night before Lee's RI. At least Lee managed to take advantage of the nuclear environment briefly, and got close (depending on your standards) to the forecast intensities, with one of the most impressive RIs in this basin. Pamela never got remotely close before the higher than expected shear took its toll on her.

Oh right, I forgot about Pamela. Just goes to show how much of a bust that was lol.

Lee was a little more of a shock than Pamela, because it got so strong and had numerous sub-900 and 150-170+ kt model runs before it got nuked by out-of-nowhere shear. Not as big of an L like you said because it actually became a 5, but a shocking short-term forecast bust.

[WalterWhite]

Why are they keeping Lee at 100 knots? FL data clearly supports 80 knots.

[Landy]

Why are they keeping Lee at 100 knots? FL data clearly supports 80 knots.

Applying reduction for the latest NW eyewall sonde's 150m mean supports at least 95kt.

[Kazmit]

NHC has Lee getting back up to 120kt in a couple days.

[zzzh]

Eye popping out on visible.

[dexterlabio]

Lee doesn't look good at all, with mid-level southerly shear and northerly upper-level shear?

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4bA8.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4bA8.gif

Shear could be much stronger in the region in actual. Models were showing Lee to reach 180-190mph at this point...

[cheezyWXguy]

Lee may start to recover if that burst manages to get all the way around

[Hurricaneman]

Looks as though the system has become better organized with the eye popping out and possibly a really small core with a large area of winds

[Sciencerocks]

[Category5Kaiju]

So, does the weaker this thing remains mean it could get further west before making a northward turn? I have seen this game over and over again in the Atlantic and am pretty sure it will restrengthen. But I am indeed a bit curious about steering patterns based on short-term strength.

[PavelGaborik10]

When I went to bed last night it looked like it was getting its act back together.

Now I wake up to a storm that looks like a sheared TS(yes I'm aware it's not an actual TS) about to have its LLC exposed.

This is crazy lol

[ElectricStorm]

I think we'll see a larger eye try to clear out in the next 18-24 hours or so, which seems to be consistent with the hurricane models. Probably won't do much strengthening until then

We'll see if the 12z runs show something similar