ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

Despite Lee 'underperforming' so far, it was such a fierce way about it, the way the convection wraps around, the IR really highlights this. It seems like storms with this trait cause havoc if they make landfall. Hopefully it misses the NE US and Canada but that is seeming less likely right now. Despite it likely not being a major hurricane when it impacts the Northeast, if it keeps this fierceness watch out!

[GCANE]

Pesky anti-cyclone that was causing the shear has dissipated.
Lee moving into the ARWB that will anchor for the next few days.
Aerial feeds are kicking in.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1700589862624035319

[Tekken_Guy]

Despite Lee 'underperforming' so far, it was such a fierce way about it, the way the convection wraps around, the IR really highlights this. It seems like storms with this trait cause havoc if they make landfall. Hopefully it misses the NE US and Canada but that is seeming less likely right now. Despite it likely not being a major hurricane when it impacts the Northeast, if it keeps this fierceness watch out!

What’s the forecast for the NYC metro area?

[CronkPSU]

Despite Lee 'underperforming' so far, it was such a fierce way about it, the way the convection wraps around, the IR really highlights this. It seems like storms with this trait cause havoc if they make landfall. Hopefully it misses the NE US and Canada but that is seeming less likely right now. Despite it likely not being a major hurricane when it impacts the Northeast, if it keeps this fierceness watch out!

What’s the forecast for the NYC metro area?

still way too early to tell...GFS not bad at all...Euro would be very bad

[eastcoastFL]

Does Lee appear on any of the island radars yet?

[wxman57]

Does Lee appear on any of the island radars yet?

Lee will pass 275-300 miles north of the islands. At that distance, the radar will be looking at 30,000 ft or higher above the surface.

[USVI-Kimmie-2]

Does Lee appear on any of the island radars yet?

A little of the tail on Barbados, not at all on the PR radar

https://www.barbadosweather.org/

[eastcoastFL]

Does Lee appear on any of the island radars yet?

A little of the tail on Barbados, not at all on the PR radar

https://www.barbadosweather.org/

Hey thanks. Not bad, he’s got some decent feeder bands now.

[brad512]

Looks like the track even at its closest is just outside the reach of the PR radar, so we might get to see some of the outer bands go by but probably not the eye/eyewall.

[Iceresistance]

VDM has 80 NM Outer Eyewall and 20 NM Inner Eyewall.
EWRC is extremely likely

[Tekken_Guy]

Despite Lee 'underperforming' so far, it was such a fierce way about it, the way the convection wraps around, the IR really highlights this. It seems like storms with this trait cause havoc if they make landfall. Hopefully it misses the NE US and Canada but that is seeming less likely right now. Despite it likely not being a major hurricane when it impacts the Northeast, if it keeps this fierceness watch out!

What’s the forecast for the NYC metro area?

still way too early to tell...GFS not bad at all...Euro would be very bad

How bad would Euro be exactly? It’s a hit on RI, not NY.

[GCANE]

Once the EWRC completes, Lee should be able to pick up alot more energy out of the water.
Much bigger area to pick up heat and more downdrafts from the convection to cool the air above the water allows for higher heat transfer.

[Hurricane2022]

[aspen]

https://imageshack.com/i/pnGpI9Ouj https://imageshack.com/i/pm6ivFnFj

Getting a little better. Once the inner eyewall decays and assuming no more shear disruptions, this should intensify again starting sometime tomorrow.

[CronkPSU]

What’s the forecast for the NYC metro area?

still way too early to tell...GFS not bad at all...Euro would be very bad

How bad would Euro be exactly? It’s a hit on RI, not NY.

i guess it depends on your definition of bad but I wouldn't want to be anywhere near Long Island or NYC if this verified

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Lee is (probably) about to intensify, perhaps rapidly if the Euro is to believed. This time around, it'll be a much larger system less likely to be impacted by moderate shear. All major models are showing a significant pressure drop between now and Sunday afternoon. It is possible Lee even re-achieves Category 5 status. CDO is on the upswing again.

[Landy]

Worst mixing on a sonde I have ever seen.

[Tekken_Guy]

still way too early to tell...GFS not bad at all...Euro would be very bad

How bad would Euro be exactly? It’s a hit on RI, not NY.

i guess it depends on your definition of bad but I wouldn't want to be anywhere near Long Island or NYC if this verified

https://i.imgur.com/lLAI98M.png

It could be Isaias-leve, Irene-level, Sandy-level, or NYC’s Katrina.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/135knots/status/1700659615438889052

[hohnywx]

How bad would Euro be exactly? It’s a hit on RI, not NY.

i guess it depends on your definition of bad but I wouldn't want to be anywhere near Long Island or NYC if this verified

https://i.imgur.com/lLAI98M.png

It could be Isaias-leve, Irene-level, Sandy-level, or NYC’s Katrina.

No one can tell you that right now. NYC metro is on the west side of the storm, so it would not be anything like Sandy, surge-wise.