ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Tekken_Guy]

i guess it depends on your definition of bad but I wouldn't want to be anywhere near Long Island or NYC if this verified

https://i.imgur.com/lLAI98M.png

It could be Isaias-leve, Irene-level, Sandy-level, or NYC’s Katrina.

No one can tell you that right now. NYC metro is on the west side of the storm, so it would not be anything like Sandy, surge-wise.

I’m from north Jersey so I want to know the impacts from Lee over here if it verifies.

[dukeblue219]

I’m from north Jersey so I want to know the impacts from Lee over here if it verifies.

A lot of rain and a lot of wind. Beyond that it's just really hard to say. So much depends on the exact organization of the storm at landfall, the angle of attack, the timing, and none of that can really be estimated at this point beyond a guess.

The image shared (taken at face value as asked) is not NYC's Katrina, though.

[dukeblue219]

I'd have a hard hard justifying anything over 85kt right now. No evidence at FL, from dropsonded, or SFMR.

[SecondBreakfast]

still way too early to tell...GFS not bad at all...Euro would be very bad

How bad would Euro be exactly? It’s a hit on RI, not NY.

i guess it depends on your definition of bad but I wouldn't want to be anywhere near Long Island or NYC if this verified

https://i.imgur.com/lLAI98M.png

For this solution I would worry mostly about rain in NYC metro since we get an afternoon thunderstorm and have urban flooding problems. We were to the north of Sandy which is why the surge was so bad. The east end of the island worries me even the track to the east gives some relief from surge. The drought last year and pine beetles this year have both taken a toll on the trees and strong sustained winds (even Cat 1 or lower) would be a problem.

[cycloneye]

Down to cat 2.

AL, 13, 2023091000, , BEST, 0, 208N, 595W, 95, 960, HU

[PavelGaborik10]

This thing is just not getting it back together.

I'd be shocked to see this mess get back to a category 4, though I've been wrong before.

[crimi481]

Memories of Andrew. The troughs lifted out -north, ridge nosed in in front of Andrew - and John Hope amazed about it all
Is Lee going to slow down soon?

[aspen]

This looks more like a Cat 1 based on recon. It’s insane how poorly forecast and impactful this bit of shear has been.

[ThunderForce]

To me it almost seems like Lee is barely moving, if at all. I can't even tell if Lee is moving west or north-northwest right now.

Current coordinates according to Tropical Tidbits are 20.8°N 59.5°W. The coordinates given in the NHC's 5 PM AST update is 20.7°N 59.1°W.

[Sciencerocks]

[brad512]

Is there a possibility that this storm just does not recover at all above a C2-C3? (Before it enters the colder waters) As someone in the Maritimes I've been watching this closely, but if this keeps weakening at a certain point even if it does come up here it'll be little more than a regular rainstorm, not making any predictions but just wondering because I thought 115mph was the lowest it would go.

I've heard of other storms before that had what would normally be a "speed bump" just not be able to restrengthen and hobble along for the rest of their run.

[wx98]

11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 9
Location: 21.0°N 59.9°W
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

[chaser1]

Is there a possibility that this storm just does not recover at all above a C2-C3? (Before it enters the colder waters) As someone in the Maritimes I've been watching this closely, but if this keeps weakening at a certain point even if it does come up here it'll be little more than a regular rainstorm, not making any predictions but just wondering because I thought 115mph was the lowest it would go

I've heard of other storms before that had what would normally be a "speed bump" just not be able to restrengthen and hobble along for the rest of their run.

Anything is possible. Well wait, very warm SST's over the west Atlantic suddenly turning cold? No, thats not possible. Also keep in mind that it is moderately strong southerly shear which is presently hampering Lee's vertical integrity. NHC seems confident that Lee will restrengthen. Considering that the storm does track towards New England or the Canadian Maritimes, it will be traveling in the direction where upper level shear is more apt to be negated. Add unusually warm SST's and Lee could be a good deal more threatening then a rainstorm.

[cheezyWXguy]

Given its appearance now compared to before, i think it’s more likely we’ve had a steady cat2 since earlier today than it is that Lee has continued to weaken. That said, it does look like shear may have ticked back up again, no longer seeing the convectively active band to the south we had this afternoon and not really seeing hot towers rotating around the eye anymore.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Lee
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgUlHOzRfF0

[chaser1]

I'm seeing short term 270 motion at a slow crawl

[Ubuntwo]

Given its appearance now compared to before, i think it’s more likely we’ve had a steady cat2 since earlier today than it is that Lee has continued to weaken. That said, it does look like shear may have ticked back up again, no longer seeing the convectively active band to the south we had this afternoon and not really seeing hot towers rotating around the eye anymore.

There was a 25kt difference in peak SFMR (from 106kt to 81kt) with the noon and evening fixes. Does seem that surface winds have declined through today. Possibly a result of the boundary layer lifting as the outer eyewall intensifies, this was shown in one of the dropsondes from that later flight:

Surface winds usually come soaring back up as the ERC completes.

[Airboy]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 6:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

EYEWALL HAS DETERIORATED TO ONLY A FEW CURVED BANDS
"

[SouthernBreeze]

Forward speed is really slowing down now. I marked position about 4-5 hrs ago & looking now, it's moved very little

[Sciencerocks]