ATL: LEE - Models

[PavelGaborik10]

Very unimpressive winds from both the CMC, and especially the GFS by the time the remnants of Lee make their way onshore in 6 or so days.

I'll continue keep tabs on this one, but not particularly concerned about Lee at this point and time as an Atlantic Canadian.

Very thankful this won't be another Fiona situation, though if it curves W earlier as some models are showing it could give some solid gusts to New England.

[Kazmit]

Very unimpressive winds from both the CMC, and especially the GFS by the time the remnants of Lee make their way onshore in 6 or so days.

I'll continue keep tabs on this one, but not particularly concerned about Lee at this point and time as an Atlantic Canadian.

Ehh, GFS still has borderline hurricane-force winds with Lee's landfall in Nova Scotia.

[ColdMiser123]

New England isn't in the clear yet.

I think the most likely outcome is that this makes landfall in Nova Scotia, but we have trended toward a closer pass to New England with the 12z models so far compared to yesterday. There are now many GEFS members that show a very close approach to the US coast, or outright landfall, due to a stronger ridge building in which pushes Lee just a bit to the NNW on approach.

[Xyls]

Very unimpressive winds from both the CMC, and especially the GFS by the time the remnants of Lee make their way onshore in 6 or so days.

I'll continue keep tabs on this one, but not particularly concerned about Lee at this point and time as an Atlantic Canadian.

Very thankful this won't be another Fiona situation, though if it curves W earlier as some models are showing it could give some solid gusts to New England.

I wouldn't write off Lee just yet even Arthur (2014) was very damaging for the area as a tropical storm, power was out for significant periods of time especially in the Yarmouth area and Western New Brunswick.

I don't think the main concern with Lee is going to be the wind anyways, it is likely going to be the storm surge which is the biggest problem. I would actually argue the worst case scenario for Lee at this point would be a model putting it slightly to the West of NS and leading it to landfall in Washington County, ME or the Fundy Isles in New Brunswick. This scenario could push a major storm surge into the Bay of Fundy which could breach the dykes that local officials have been panicking about at the Isthmus of Chignecto.

[ronjon]

New England isn't in the clear yet.

I think the most likely outcome is that this makes landfall in Nova Scotia, but we have trended toward a closer pass to New England with the 12z models so far compared to yesterday. There are now many GEFS members that show a very close approach to the US coast, or outright landfall, due to a stronger ridge building in which pushes Lee just a bit to the NNW on approach.

https://i.imgur.com/kCqRCb7.png

Center of 12z GFS ensemble mean now is a close brush with Cape Cod and landfall in eastern Maine. 12z ICON has even closer approach off Boston Harbor into near Portsmith Maine landfall. Lots of uncertainty still here.

[hohnywx]

New England isn't in the clear yet.

I think the most likely outcome is that this makes landfall in Nova Scotia, but we have trended toward a closer pass to New England with the 12z models so far compared to yesterday. There are now many GEFS members that show a very close approach to the US coast, or outright landfall, due to a stronger ridge building in which pushes Lee just a bit to the NNW on approach.

https://i.imgur.com/kCqRCb7.png

Center of 12z GFS ensemble mean now is a close brush with Cape Cod and landfall in eastern Maine. 12z ICON has even closer approach off Boston Harbor into near Portsmith Maine landfall. Lots of uncertainty still here.

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneAddict/status/1700917541659357422

[PavelGaborik10]

Very unimpressive winds from both the CMC, and especially the GFS by the time the remnants of Lee make their way onshore in 6 or so days.

I'll continue keep tabs on this one, but not particularly concerned about Lee at this point and time as an Atlantic Canadian.

Very thankful this won't be another Fiona situation, though if it curves W earlier as some models are showing it could give some solid gusts to New England.

I wouldn't write off Lee just yet even Arthur (2014) was very damaging for the area as a tropical storm, power was out for significant periods of time especially in the Yarmouth area and Western New Brunswick.

I don't think the main concern with Lee is going to be the wind anyways, it is likely going to be the storm surge which is the biggest problem. I would actually argue the worst case scenario for Lee at this point would be a model putting it slightly to the West of NS and leading it to landfall in Washington County, ME or the Fundy Isles in New Brunswick. This scenario could push a major storm surge into the Bay of Fundy which could breach the dykes that local officials have been panicking about at the Isthmus of Chignecto.

While I can't speak for the entire Province Arthur was of little impact here. Noel has respectable impacts, but the only storms that truly did major damage to my area was Juan, and of course even more so Fiona.

We deal with significantly stronger winter storms than what models are currently forecasting Lee to be in the hypothetical scenario where it does landfall here, of course foliage is an issue this time of year though.

None the less, not particularly concerned with Lee unless something drastically changes.

Edit : Forgot about Dorian somehow, that was also quite potent.

[PavelGaborik10]

Very unimpressive winds from both the CMC, and especially the GFS by the time the remnants of Lee make their way onshore in 6 or so days.

I'll continue keep tabs on this one, but not particularly concerned about Lee at this point and time as an Atlantic Canadian.

Ehh, GFS still has borderline hurricane-force winds with Lee's landfall in Nova Scotia.

850 MB is pretty unimpressive, we routinely get winter storms that are much, much more intense than the mess the GFS pushes East.

Foliage would be my one minor concern, but even then, even Dorian didn't do anything drastic outside of power outages.

[RevanTheJedi96]

Very unimpressive winds from both the CMC, and especially the GFS by the time the remnants of Lee make their way onshore in 6 or so days.

I'll continue keep tabs on this one, but not particularly concerned about Lee at this point and time as an Atlantic Canadian.

Very thankful this won't be another Fiona situation, though if it curves W earlier as some models are showing it could give some solid gusts to New England.

Why are you do fixated on what intensity the GFS and CMC have Lee a week+ away from now? Don't see how that's all that relevant compared to the path. Maybe they get it right, maybe not.

[PavelGaborik10]

Very unimpressive winds from both the CMC, and especially the GFS by the time the remnants of Lee make their way onshore in 6 or so days.

I'll continue keep tabs on this one, but not particularly concerned about Lee at this point and time as an Atlantic Canadian.

Very thankful this won't be another Fiona situation, though if it curves W earlier as some models are showing it could give some solid gusts to New England.

Why are you do fixated on what intensity the GFS and CMC have Lee a week+ away from now? Don't see how that's all that relevant compared to the path. Maybe they get it right, maybe not.

Why do I care about the intensity of a system potentially making landfall in my home province in 6-7 days?

Is this a rhetorical question? The path has direct implications on when the system phases, which completely and totally correlates with its intensity down the line.

Are you serious?

[RevanTheJedi96]

Very unimpressive winds from both the CMC, and especially the GFS by the time the remnants of Lee make their way onshore in 6 or so days.

I'll continue keep tabs on this one, but not particularly concerned about Lee at this point and time as an Atlantic Canadian.

Very thankful this won't be another Fiona situation, though if it curves W earlier as some models are showing it could give some solid gusts to New England.

Why are you do fixated on what intensity the GFS and CMC have Lee a week+ away from now? Don't see how that's all that relevant compared to the path. Maybe they get it right, maybe not.

Why do I care about the intensity of a system potentially making landfall in my home province in 6-7 days?

Is this a rhetorical question? The path has direct implications on when the system phases, which completely and totally correlates with its intensity down the line.

Are you serious?

I asked this question because many times models do not get the intensity correct. Lee could be coming in weaker or stronger on its approach to the Northeast. At this point in time, I'd be way more concerned with how the models are tracking. The fact they keep going back and forth like this isn't ideal.

[BobHarlem]

Closeup of GFS Ensemble landfall points, mean cluster Moves from Nova Scotia west to Maine.

[IsabelaWeather]

Why are you do fixated on what intensity the GFS and CMC have Lee a week+ away from now? Don't see how that's all that relevant compared to the path. Maybe they get it right, maybe not.

Why do I care about the intensity of a system potentially making landfall in my home province in 6-7 days?

Is this a rhetorical question? The path has direct implications on when the system phases, which completely and totally correlates with its intensity down the line.

Are you serious?

I asked this question because many times models do not get the intensity correct. Lee could be coming in weaker or stronger on its approach to the Northeast. At this point in time, I'd be way more concerned with how the models are tracking. The fact they keep going back and forth like this isn't ideal.

Its not a developing TC at that time, intensity is likely more accurate.

Im not sure why you wouldnt look at intensity, so what if it hits you but is weak? NS gets some crazy storms in the winter time, looking at current modeled intensity and track are very important.

[PavelGaborik10]

Why are you do fixated on what intensity the GFS and CMC have Lee a week+ away from now? Don't see how that's all that relevant compared to the path. Maybe they get it right, maybe not.

Why do I care about the intensity of a system potentially making landfall in my home province in 6-7 days?

Is this a rhetorical question? The path has direct implications on when the system phases, which completely and totally correlates with its intensity down the line.

Are you serious?

I asked this question because many times models do not get the intensity correct. Lee could be coming in weaker or stronger on its approach to the Northeast. At this point in time, I'd be way more concerned with how the models are tracking. The fact they keep going back and forth like this isn't ideal.

No, and many times they don't get the track correct this far in the long range either, hence why I literally said I'll continue the keep tabs on the system.

At the same time, nothing I'm seeing is setting off alarm signals either, so while again, I'll continue to monitor the system, it's not something I'm particularly concerned about at this time.

Not particularly sure what your issue is regarding my stance quite frankly.

[LarryWx]

It is premature imo to go with no NE US landfall with high confidence considering the 12Z GEFS among other things. I was last at 10% chance for NE landfall after having been as high as 20% and I'm considering raising it back some shortly.

[PavelGaborik10]

It is premature imo to go with no NE US landfall with high confidence considering the 12Z GEFS among other things.

Agreed.

Hell, I'm of the belief that direct/significant impacts are more likely than not for New England at this present time.

[LarryWx]

It is premature imo to go with no NE US landfall with high confidence considering the 12Z GEFS among other things.

Agreed.

Hell, I'm of the belief that direct/significant impacts are more likely than not for New England at this present time.

I'm not saying a NE direct/sig impact is likely at this point though, but I may very well soon come back up from my 10% chance of a US landfall. I was originally at 20% for awhile and then I went down to 10%.

[PavelGaborik10]

It is premature imo to go with no NE US landfall with high confidence considering the 12Z GEFS among other things.

Agreed.

Hell, I'm of the belief that direct/significant impacts are more likely than not for New England at this present time.

I'm not saying a NE direct/sig impact is likely at this point though, but I may very well soon come back up from my 10% chance of a US landfall. I was originally at 20% for awhile and then I went down to 10%.

If the left hook that the GFS and Icon are sniffing comes to fruition at the right time, it wouldn't take much to bring significant impacts to Maine, at all, even without a "landfall"

[hohnywx]

It is premature imo to go with no NE US landfall with high confidence considering the 12Z GEFS among other things. I was last at 10% chance for NE landfall after having been as high as 20% and I'm considering raising it back some shortly.

Larry, do you have an update on the 12z UKMET? Thank you!

[PavelGaborik10]

Euro shifts slightly W into SW Nova Scotia.

Trend is most certainly west today, chances of a New England impact have significantly increased.