ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Teban54
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1641 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 10, 2023 4:36 pm

Eye clearing out quickly on IR, despite the heaviest convection not making it to the E (yet).
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1642 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 10, 2023 4:51 pm

aspen wrote:I’m still skeptical. The HAFS models are showing prolonged EWRC issues, and based on infrared/visible, there might be an outer eyewall (see the east side of the CDO).

We’ll have to see if recon finds a double wind maxima.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1643 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 10, 2023 5:02 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1644 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Sep 10, 2023 5:04 pm

First pass has about 953mb extrap
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1645 Postby zzzh » Sun Sep 10, 2023 5:12 pm

Image
Bad structure
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1646 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Sep 10, 2023 5:13 pm

That pass supports around 90-95kts
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1647 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 10, 2023 5:13 pm

zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/J1sFKEy.jpg
Bad structure

Yeah those endless EWRC runs from the HAFS-A/B are probably gonna verify.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1648 Postby REDHurricane » Sun Sep 10, 2023 5:14 pm

This period of intensification could be temporary, as the shear cutting through Lee's center has increased in the past several hours. All Lee needs is for the shear to lift north just a tiny bit and it'll be off to the races again, but at this point I'm not convinced that that is going to happen before the window of RI favorability has passed.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1649 Postby zzzh » Sun Sep 10, 2023 5:19 pm

:uarrow: That shear diagnostics is not accurate. You need to remove hurricane vortex to get the correct one.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1650 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Sep 10, 2023 5:19 pm

Eye drop supports 952mb
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1651 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Sep 10, 2023 5:39 pm

Lee's eye is RAPIDLY clearing out. :eek:

Image
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4pAI.png
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1652 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 10, 2023 5:41 pm

Kazmit wrote:
aspen wrote:I’m still skeptical. The HAFS models are showing prolonged EWRC issues, and based on infrared/visible, there might be an outer eyewall (see the east side of the CDO).

We’ll have to see if recon finds a double wind maxima.

This is a very slight double wind maxima, if at all. Won't surprise me if an eyewall meld happens instead.
Image

The eye also remains very saturated as shown with the dropsonade.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1653 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Sep 10, 2023 5:43 pm

The structure looks good now on Microwave

Image
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4pAF.png
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1654 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Sep 10, 2023 5:51 pm

Iceresistance wrote:The structure looks good now on Microwave

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4pAF.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4pAF.png

Wow that’s a significant improvement
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1655 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 10, 2023 6:05 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1656 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Sep 10, 2023 6:07 pm

Eye is 30 miles wide. I'd say he just finished an ERC...
unrelated question...since HHs are flying missions out of St Croix, do they deploy people down to St Croix and rotate crew or are they based there? Was just wondering if anyone knows
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1657 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Sep 10, 2023 6:11 pm

948.7 mb Extrapolated
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1658 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Sep 10, 2023 6:13 pm

ACE is up to 74.2 thus far this season. Lee is rackin' up points
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1659 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Sep 10, 2023 6:14 pm

Iceresistance wrote:948.7 mb Extrapolated

Looks like it hasn't moved much either
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1660 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Sep 10, 2023 6:18 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:948.7 mb Extrapolated

Looks like it hasn't moved much either

Since the lowest extrapolated reading from the previous pass was 952.5, this is a nearly 4mb drop since then
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