ATL: LEE - Models

[PavelGaborik10]

Trend has been significantly weaker and west the past couple of days.

The bad : Lee is likely to impact both New England and SE Canada.

The good : Lee is likely to be a sloppy, rapidly weakening ET mess by this time.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET:

-slight left shift (vs 0Z's W NS landfall) with skim of W NS at 975 mb followed by move into Bay of Fundy and early 9/17 NB landfall

-slightly stronger peak of 940 mb Tues night

HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 63.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2023 0 23.1N 63.2W 944 89
0000UTC 12.09.2023 12 23.7N 64.6W 949 86
1200UTC 12.09.2023 24 24.2N 65.6W 948 83
0000UTC 13.09.2023 36 25.0N 66.5W 940 91
1200UTC 13.09.2023 48 26.1N 67.2W 940 85
0000UTC 14.09.2023 60 27.7N 67.3W 943 81
1200UTC 14.09.2023 72 29.8N 67.8W 946 75
0000UTC 15.09.2023 84 32.0N 67.7W 945 76
1200UTC 15.09.2023 96 34.5N 67.0W 952 66
0000UTC 16.09.2023 108 37.9N 66.1W 955 78
1200UTC 16.09.2023 120 41.4N 66.5W 960 60
0000UTC 17.09.2023 132 44.2N 66.3W 975 42
1200UTC 17.09.2023 144 47.5N 64.8W 991 37
0000UTC 18.09.2023 156 49.7N 62.6W 996 35
1200UTC 18.09.2023 168 50.2N 60.0W 1003 26

[LarryWx]

For record/trend following purposes, GEFS US initial landfalls: 12Z had a drop to 6 (19%) (3 ME, 2 MA, 1 NJ/NYC) with only one strong left hooking member. Almost all of the rest have initial landfall into NS or via the Bay of Fundy into NB.

Last 13 GEFS runs: 19%, 32%, 29%, 26%, 42%, 10%, 13%, 26%, 16%, 16%, 10%, 10%, 10%

[LarryWx]

For trend following purposes for those who like following these and for the record here are EPS 0Z/12Z run US landfalls, which have resulted in three runs in a row with 20%+:

9/11 12Z: ~11 (22%): ~9 ME, 2 MA

9/11 0Z: ~12 (24%): ~9 ME, 1 MA, 1 RI, 1 NY

9/10 12Z: 10 (20%): 6 ME, 3 MA, 1 RI

9/10 0Z: 3 (6%): 1 ME, 2 MA

9/9 12Z: 6 (12%) 9/17-19 (3 ME, 3 MA)
9/9 0Z: 3 (6%) 9/17 (3 ME)
9/8 12Z: 5 (10%) 9/15-18 (5 ME)
9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY)
9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ)
9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA)
9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA)
9/6 0Z: 5 (10%)
9/5 12Z: 2 (4%)
9/5 0Z: 4 (8%)
9/4 12Z: 1 (2%)
9/4 0Z: 2 (4%)

Aside: 12Z op hit W NS at 969 mb very early on 9/17

[Xyls]

Lee seems to be dead set on ruining New Brunswick's weekend. A lot of these model runs are really trying to angle this into the Bay of Fundy which I would think would likely maximize the storm surge potential here.

Giving hybrid Saxby 1869 and Arthur 2014 vibes. Stronger surge but maybe less wind or maybe the jet will cause massive power outages across the province like Arthur again?

Hopefully NB more prepared this time because Arthur was a fiasco. We shall see how well the tree trimming programs have worked. Also no major ice storm last year to help all the branches come down.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: gets down to 937 mb tomorrow evening, lowest yet for the restrengthening peak; a little further E track leading to landfall in W NS vs going into Bay of Fundy before NB landfall on 12Z run:

HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 64.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2023 0 23.9N 64.4W 945 82
1200UTC 12.09.2023 12 24.2N 65.8W 952 84
0000UTC 13.09.2023 24 24.8N 66.6W 937 89
1200UTC 13.09.2023 36 26.0N 67.2W 946 83
0000UTC 14.09.2023 48 27.6N 67.5W 943 83
1200UTC 14.09.2023 60 29.5N 68.0W 945 77
0000UTC 15.09.2023 72 31.7N 67.8W 941 78
1200UTC 15.09.2023 84 34.2N 66.8W 953 66
0000UTC 16.09.2023 96 37.8N 65.9W 958 76
1200UTC 16.09.2023 108 41.4N 65.6W 963 59
0000UTC 17.09.2023 120 44.7N 65.3W 977 45
1200UTC 17.09.2023 132 47.6N 63.5W 989 39
0000UTC 18.09.2023 144 49.8N 60.3W 994 33
1200UTC 18.09.2023 156 51.2N 54.1W 998 38
0000UTC 19.09.2023 168 CEASED TRACKING

[LarryWx]

1. The 0Z Euro hits the C ME coast ~8AM on 9/17 at 972 mb.

2. The 0Z EPS looks like it has the highest % of members with a US landfall yet. There are so many that it will be very hard to count them. Most by far are in ME.

Edit: It looks like ~4 in MA. I'm roughly guessing 12-15 in ME, where the rest are.

3. The odd thing is that the 0Z GEFS had the smallest # of US hits in quite awhile with only 4 (13%)!

4. Also odd is that the 0Z GEPS has only one US hit, the smallest # on a GEPS since way back at the 0Z 9/9 run!

5. Also odd is that the 0Z Euro is the only 0Z op model that hit the US. The GFS barely missed and the others were further away.

[RevanTheJedi96]

0Z EURO makes me sick. That's a direct landfall right where I am.

[TheDreamTraveler]

0Z EURO makes me sick. That's a direct landfall right where I am.

That's right where one of my best friends live. I don't think he's ever been in a true hurricane or a storm of this magnitude. So hopefully the storm isn't that bad. He lives near the coast too.

[RevanTheJedi96]

0Z EURO makes me sick. That's a direct landfall right where I am.

That's right where one of my best friends live. I don't think he's ever been in a true hurricane or a storm of this magnitude. So hopefully the storm isn't that bad. He lives near the coast too.

Lee could catch millions of people unguarded. In areas that have already seen way too much rain. This could be a really bad situation developing and time is running out.

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1701588380583178661

[LarryWx]

1. The 6Z GEFS was pretty similar to the 0Z GEFS except there was actually a slight increase vs 0Z up to 5 US landfalls vs 4 including 2 MA hits vs 0 MA on the 0Z. But the 6Z GEFS (19% US hits) is still not as active as the EPS (31%+).

2. Whereas the 6Z Euro op shifted slightly E of the 0Z Euro op, the 6Z EPS actually shifted even further W vs the 0Z EPS. Check out MA, for which the 0Z EPS had 4 landfalls. The 6Z EPS has ~8 MA landfalls in addition to 2 on the RI/MA border and another offshore ready to come in as of the end of the run! So, whereas the 0Z EPS had 4 US landfalls outside of ME, the 6Z EPS has ~11 of those!

[BobHarlem]

12z icon showing the short bend west like the Euro has now close to the NE for the first time, still landfalling in Nova Scotia though.

[aspen]

Is it just me, or the 12z GFS/CMC/ICON have trended a little further away from CT/RI/MA?

[hohnywx]

Is it just me, or the 12z GFS/CMC/ICON have trended a little further away from CT/RI/MA?

They all trended westward from 6z (0z in case of CMC and slightly compared to ICON/GFS).

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro is a bit E of the 0Z with a landfall near Eastport, ME.


Some additional 12Z op runs:

UKMET: Bay of Fundy/NB early 9/17

Meteo-France: Bay of Fundy/NB 9/16 PM

KMA: SW NS 9/16 evening

JMA: Cape Cod 9/16 PM

[LarryWx]

EPS prior two runs: The very active 0Z EPS still had only 4 (8%) of members hit the NE US outside of ME. The 6Z EPS had ~11 (22%)! That was by far the highest % with US landfalls outside of ME for any EPS.

12Z EPS: is back down to ~5 MA landfalls. ME still has a bunch though I think they decreased some. So, the new EPS is still quite active in regard to NE US landfalls but the mean track did shift a bit E vs the 6Z.

[ColdMiser123]

18z Euro is west of 12z, it's actually even a tick northwest of the 0z run last night. As everything ticked west at 18z, I'd expect TVCN to also tick west with the evening update.

[ColdMiser123]

Farthest west the EPS has been as well. A sizable majority of solutions are US landfalls. There are also a significant number of tracks into states other than Maine.

[LarryWx]

Farthest west the EPS has been as well. A sizable majority of solutions are US landfalls. There are also a significant number of tracks into states other than Maine.

I count ~15 on the 18Z EPS with a non-Maine US landfall, which is even more than the ~11 on the 6Z! At least one gets close to being a NH landfall. In addition, one 18Z GEFS member may actually be a NH landfall. I need a magnifying glass lol.

**Edited for correction: I had accidentally looked at yesterday's 18Z EPS on Weathernerds when I thought the new one was already out. Oooops!