ATL: NIGEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AnnularCane]

Excerpt from 2 a.m. TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing limited and
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity well to the west of
its center. Additional development of this system is becoming
increasingly unlikely before it merges with a tropical wave to its
east during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Next!

African Wave: That would be me!

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricaneman]

This will merge with 98L

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity primarily to the west
of its center. Development of this system is unlikely before it
merges with a another area of low pressure (AL98) to its east during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

Decided to post the TWO here and not on the 98L one because of the cone and the BT position of 97L.

AL, 97, 2023091206, , BEST, 0, 119N, 321W, 25, 1012, LO

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97 and AL98):
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is expected to consolidate, with a low on the western side
becoming dominant over the next day or two. Gradual development of
the low is expected after that and a tropical depression is likely
to form by this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at about 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[abajan]

Excerpt from 2 p.m. TWO:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97 and AL98):
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is expected to consolidate, with a low on the western side
becoming dominant over the next day or two. Gradual development of
the low is expected after that, and a tropical depression is likely
to form by this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward
or northwestward at about 15 mph across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[galaxy401]

So should this thread continue then while 98L goes to Archives? They both seemed to be labeled Active but it's going to be a little confusing.

[AnnularCane]

So should this thread continue then while 98L goes to Archives? They both seemed to be labeled Active but it's going to be a little confusing.

It is confusing. Isn't 98L the area of interest with 20/80?

[cycloneye]

After they merge, NHC will let us know which will dominate and then which thread remains at active storms forum and which one goes to the 2023 archives file.

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97 and AL98):
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is expected to consolidate, with a low on the western side
becoming dominant over the next day or two. Gradual development of
the low is expected after that, and a tropical depression is likely
to form by this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at about 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$

[zzzh]

Already has a closed circulation but wind is only 10-15kt. Needs convection.
CCKW will reach the MDR by tomorrow and that will help it.

[zhukm29]

Interesting, looks like the NHC believes 97L will be the winner of the two invests in the end. Reminds me of a similar situation back in 2021, where we had two invests (90L and 91L) battle it out off the coast of Africa. In that case, the eastern invest (90L) won out and became (quite fittingly) TS Victor. Although Victor was not victorious against the environment it formed in and kind of underperformed, but that is another story.

[AnnularCane]

But didn't everyone say 97L was going to be the one to get eaten?

Tropical system goings-on are weird...

[CyclonicFury]

Interesting, looks like the NHC believes 97L will be the winner of the two invests in the end. Reminds me of a similar situation back in 2021, where we had two invests (90L and 91L) battle it out off the coast of Africa. In that case, the eastern invest (90L) won out and became (quite fittingly) TS Victor. Although Victor was not victorious against the environment it formed in and kind of underperformed, but that is another story.

It's possible the merger could result in a larger system that struggles to consolidate quickly. Wonder if we'll have another hurricane that struggles to intensify significantly due to inner core size issues.

[Hurricaneman]

Also have a feeling that Margot will have an effect on where this goes, could have something close to Bermuda next week

[Landy]

Just 97L now.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic
continues to produce some disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development of this system is expected over the next few
days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at
10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this
weekend over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[abajan]

Excerpt from 8AM TWO:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic
continues to produce some disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development of this system is expected over the next few
days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at
10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this
weekend over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[HurricaneBelle]

Interesting, looks like the NHC believes 97L will be the winner of the two invests in the end. Reminds me of a similar situation back in 2021, where we had two invests (90L and 91L) battle it out off the coast of Africa. In that case, the eastern invest (90L) won out and became (quite fittingly) TS Victor. Although Victor was not victorious against the environment it formed in and kind of underperformed, but that is another story.

[Sciencerocks]