2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[zzzh]

By the way, NCEP is not the best reanalysis model for VP.

[cycloneye]

Dang. 2023 season among the exclusive top 10 list.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1701687892098363662




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1701689305553612840




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1701694407245013429

[Ianswfl]

This pattern currently in place concerns me in October in the caribbean in particualr for the the florida peninsula even though there's a subtropical jet across the Gulf.

You think a risk for an Wilma, or Ian in oct for me? What about November with the warm waters? Another Kate 1985?

[Ianswfl]

I think we need to watch the eastern Caribbean in late Sep. Also expecting more NW Caribbean activity than usual in Oct-Nov for an El Nino.

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1701549729803297243

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1701577706637242411

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1701583064885874875

How many storms do you think the Carribean will pump out in Oct, Nov?

[SFLcane]

It’s almost time to watch the Caribbean!



Although both the remnant MJO signal and El Nino conditions are broadly unfavorable for tropical cyclone development during Week-2, warm SSTs and a continued high climatological favorability support at least a slight potential for additional development over the MDR both during Week-2 and Week-3. Suppressed convection has precluded development over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico recently, and this pattern is favored to persist into Week-2; however, dynamical models indicate an increasing potential for development in these regions by Week-3.

[WalterWhite]

Even with the unfavorable MJO in September, however, I still think we are going to get to at the very least Philippe (and likely Rina) by the end of September.

[IcyTundra]

This pattern currently in place concerns me in October in the caribbean in particualr for the the florida peninsula even though there's a subtropical jet across the Gulf.

You think a risk for an Wilma, or Ian in oct for me? What about November with the warm waters? Another Kate 1985?

There is always a risk for Florida in October when the CAG (Central American Gyre) really starts to get going. We will see if the Nino shear reduces the risk in October but I wouldn't count on it.

[Ianswfl]

This pattern currently in place concerns me in October in the caribbean in particualr for the the florida peninsula even though there's a subtropical jet across the Gulf.

You think a risk for an Wilma, or Ian in oct for me? What about November with the warm waters? Another Kate 1985?

There is always a risk for Florida in October when the CAG (Central American Gyre) really starts to get going. We will see if the Nino shear reduces the risk in October but I wouldn't count on it.

November too. Especially if gulf stays warm i wouldn't be shocked even something weak in early dec.

Typically the oct storms for south fl are a tad weaker, not like the august and sept ones. However with the warm waters they could be stronger.

[Ianswfl]

It’s almost time to watch the Caribbean!

https://i.postimg.cc/YSBjDqPx/IMG-7617.png

Although both the remnant MJO signal and El Nino conditions are broadly unfavorable for tropical cyclone development during Week-2, warm SSTs and a continued high climatological favorability support at least a slight potential for additional development over the MDR both during Week-2 and Week-3. Suppressed convection has precluded development over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico recently, and this pattern is favored to persist into Week-2; however, dynamical models indicate an increasing potential for development in these regions by Week-3.

I'm getting pumped for western carribean sea season too. Do you think we could get a couple majors from the western carribean before season shutdown?

[zzzh]

Even with the unfavorable MJO in September, however, I still think we are going to get to at the very least Philippe (and likely Rina) by the end of September.

We never had unfavorable MJO since June. MJO has been stuck in Phase 1-2 for over 80 days and we had 0 Pacific MJO event . It is currently in phase 3/4 which suppresses EPAC and that favors the Atlantic as well.

[Kingarabian]

Even with the unfavorable MJO in September, however, I still think we are going to get to at the very least Philippe (and likely Rina) by the end of September.

We never had unfavorable MJO since June. MJO has been stuck in Phase 1-2 for over 80 days and we had 0 Pacific MJO event . It is currently in phase 3/4 which suppresses EPAC and that favors the Atlantic as well.

Exactly. Slower EPAC means it's a lot easier for TCG in the Atlantic.

[CFLHurricane]

This pattern currently in place concerns me in October in the caribbean in particualr for the the florida peninsula even though there's a subtropical jet across the Gulf.

You think a risk for an Wilma, or Ian in oct for me? What about November with the warm waters? Another Kate 1985?

There is always a risk for Florida in October when the CAG (Central American Gyre) really starts to get going. We will see if the Nino shear reduces the risk in October but I wouldn't count on it.

Personally I’m feeling mighty relaxed about the foreseeable season here on the Space Coast. These unusually strong autumnal fronts are shielding us from the east and there’s nothing for the rest of September on the models for several runs now. I do think there will be an October major or two due to the record warmth but my gut is saying most of the season is behind us.

[SFLcane]

You think a risk for an Wilma, or Ian in oct for me? What about November with the warm waters? Another Kate 1985?

There is always a risk for Florida in October when the CAG (Central American Gyre) really starts to get going. We will see if the Nino shear reduces the risk in October but I wouldn't count on it.

Personally I’m feeling mighty relaxed about the foreseeable season here on the Space Coast. These unusually strong autumnal fronts are shielding us from the east and there’s nothing for the rest of September on the models for several runs now. I do think there will be an October major or two due to the record warmth but my gut is saying most of the season is behind us.

Just 1 problem… The protective shield this year for Florida from the east if the pattern remains will draw anything that forms in the Caribbean guess we’re? North…

[NDG]

https://i.imgur.com/B5M7AG4.png
By the way, NCEP is not the best reanalysis model for VP.

Perhaps, but we all know 2004 had a slow and late start, second half of the hurricane season it paints a different picture on its reanalysis especially for September.

[zzzh]

https://i.imgur.com/B5M7AG4.png
By the way, NCEP is not the best reanalysis model for VP.

Perhaps, but we all know 2004 had a slow and late start, second half of the hurricane season it paints a different picture on its reanalysis especially for September.

https://i.imgur.com/5cF2Ao0.png
https://i.imgur.com/wbvylZt.png

August and Sep were the only months with significant activity.

[Cachondo23]

Its been exactly one month since the NHC started tracking what would be TS Gert and we have Nigel coming soon. Crazy stuff.

On another note, GFS “happy hour” tracking yet another wave moving due west into the Caribbean. Cabo Verde season wont stop but still no model support at all.

¿Donde esta El Niño?

[Ianswfl]

Its been exactly one month since the NHC started tracking what would be TS Gert and we have Nigel coming soon. Crazy stuff.

On another note, GFS “happy hour” tracking yet another wave moving due west into the Caribbean. Cabo Verde season wont stop but still no model support at all.

¿Donde esta El Niño?

For the land masses looks like it will be a slow season. Most storms in the open Atlantic.

[Deshaunrob17]

This year reminds me of those active MDR years when we’re just done talking about 1 MDR hurricane and then another tropical wave is poised become another MDR hurricane and then models show another the next week… Feels like 1995, 2004, 2010 and 2017. Fortunately, it’s been more like 2010 so far.

[Emmett_Brown]

ACE total for 2023 should pass 100 some time today. Pretty impressive. Average total for this date is about 67 so we continue to be well above average so far.

[CyclonicFury]

Going to be interesting to see what October/November are like (though I don't expect much at all out of the latter). While most +ENSO years have reduced activity in the late season, this is not always the case, at least for October. 2014 and 2018 both were weak Niños that produced multiple hurricanes and a C4+ in October. 2023's Niño is stronger than those years but has been more active so far. Then you have 2004 which had a hyperactive Aug/Sep and only two weak storms in October.

If we have at least average ACE in Oct/Nov we should at least come close to the hyperactive threshold. Climate models have seemingly been trending stronger with Caribbean shear for October in recent runs. If that verifies, it would reduce the chances of October Caribbean activity but there could always be a favorable window at some point.