ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CronkPSU]

Most of us here have been tracking Lee for 20 days now.
I'll be the first to admit that I am suffering from hurricane fatigue.

I just want the Lee story to be over.

The inherent problem with long trackers.

20? It has been around since the 2nd!

lol many of us were following it waaaaayyy before that on the talking tropics room in the long range forecast threads

[dukeblue219]

WPC still issuing advisories for NHC...

[RevanTheJedi96]

Really hoping this at least weakens a good bit before landfall so it doesn't cause much damage. Best case scenario would be for Lee to defy the model guidance and quickly turn east out to sea before being able to get near land.

Pretty much every model has this weakening into an ET mess prior to any direct impacts.

Things can still change, but that's where we stand now.

Dude you have been saying the same thing for days and you speak like this has already happened. BTW, the NHC doesn't even agree with you. It still has Lee as a hurricane around the Gulf of Maine.

[IcyTundra]

Really hoping this at least weakens a good bit before landfall so it doesn't cause much damage. Best case scenario would be for Lee to defy the model guidance and quickly turn east out to sea before being able to get near land.

Pretty much every model has this weakening into an ET mess prior to any direct impacts.

Things can still change, but that's where we stand now.

Storm surge is going to be the issue with Lee. Bigger wind field=bigger surge

[PavelGaborik10]

Really hoping this at least weakens a good bit before landfall so it doesn't cause much damage. Best case scenario would be for Lee to defy the model guidance and quickly turn east out to sea before being able to get near land.

Pretty much every model has this weakening into an ET mess prior to any direct impacts.

Things can still change, but that's where we stand now.

Dude you have been saying the same thing for days and you speak like this has already happened. BTW, the NHC doesn't even agree with you. It still has Lee as a hurricane around the Gulf of Maine.

Literally nothing I posted above was speaking in past-tense.

In fact, quite the opposite.

PS : The NHC has this well offshore as a minimal cat 1, it weakens significantly prior to landfall, nobody remotely credible is buying into landfall as a hurricane with Lee as you continue to suggest.

[RevanTheJedi96]

Pretty much every model has this weakening into an ET mess prior to any direct impacts.

Things can still change, but that's where we stand now.

Dude you have been saying the same thing for days and you speak like this has already happened. BTW, the NHC doesn't even agree with you. It still has Lee as a hurricane around the Gulf of Maine.

Literally nothing I posted above was speaking in past-tense.

In fact, quite the opposite.

PS : The NHC has this well offshore as a minimal cat 1, it weakens significantly prior to landfall, nobody remotely credible is buying into landfall as a hurricane with Lee as you continue to suggest.

It is entirely possible for it to impact Nova Scotia/Maine as a minimal CAT 1 still. Even a more Western direction toward Cape Cod is entirely possible. Models aren't set in stone yet.

"nobody remotely credible is buying into landfall as a hurricane with Lee"

I have heard nothing of the sort. We are still multiple days out before Lee comes here. Making your opinion seem like fact, such as what you are doing, is just as bad as fear-mongering. I am not saying Lee will or will not hit as a hurricane. We don't know yet.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Downplaying Lee's impacts as being only an "extratropical mess" is weird to me considering how severe Sandy's impacts were in 2012.

[PavelGaborik10]

Dude you have been saying the same thing for days and you speak like this has already happened. BTW, the NHC doesn't even agree with you. It still has Lee as a hurricane around the Gulf of Maine.

Literally nothing I posted above was speaking in past-tense.

In fact, quite the opposite.

PS : The NHC has this well offshore as a minimal cat 1, it weakens significantly prior to landfall, nobody remotely credible is buying into landfall as a hurricane with Lee as you continue to suggest.

It is entirely possible for it to impact Nova Scotia/Maine as a minimal CAT 1 still. Even a more Western direction toward Cape Cod is entirely possible. Models aren't set in stone yet.

"nobody remotely credible is buying into landfall as a hurricane with Lee"

I have heard nothing of the sort. We are still multiple days out before Lee comes here. Making your opinion seem like fact, such as what you are doing, is just as bad as fear-mongering. I am not saying Lee will or will not hit as a hurricane. We don't know yet.

Can you provide some sources among credible mets who currently believe it's likely Lee will be a category 1 upon landfall? Maine seems significantly too far W, SE Nova Scotia or New England with a quick hook may be possible, but given the current expectation of a rapid slowdown upon approach Maine simply looks extremely unlikely at this time to face Hurricane conditions.

That's simply the reality of where we currently stand, this isn't subjective.

[PavelGaborik10]

Downplaying Lee's impacts as being only an "extratropical mess" is weird to me considering how severe Sandy's impacts were in 2012.

Sandy was 900 miles wide, Lee is barely more than 1/3rd her size.

Among recent times we've seen plenty of high impact post-tropical events in the area...Sandy, Dorian and of course Fiona last year.

About the only thing Lee will have in common with all of them is the area(s) we expect to be impacted.

This isn't Dorian, this isn't Sandy and it damn sure isn't Fiona, this is expected to be a large, rapidly weakening TS strength mess upon arrival.

[sicktght311]

Downplaying Lee's impacts as being only an "extratropical mess" is weird to me considering how severe Sandy's impacts were in 2012.

Sandy was 900 miles wide, Lee is barely more than 1/3rd her size.

Among recent times we've seen plenty of high impact post-tropical events in the area...Sandy, Dorian and of course Fiona last year.

About the only thing Lee will have in common with all of them is the area(s) we expect to be impacted.

This isn't Dorian, this isn't Sandy and it damn sure isn't Fiona, this is expected to be a large, rapidly weakening TS strength mess upon arrival.

Let’s not forget that sometimes all it takes is 4 or 5 feet of storm surge to completely ruin an entire coast lines worth of property and possessions. Just because this isnt a category 3 rocketing up the coast, doesn’t mean millions of people aren’t gonna have a really terrible weekend.

[Ubuntwo]

Literally nothing I posted above was speaking in past-tense.

In fact, quite the opposite.

PS : The NHC has this well offshore as a minimal cat 1, it weakens significantly prior to landfall, nobody remotely credible is buying into landfall as a hurricane with Lee as you continue to suggest.

It is entirely possible for it to impact Nova Scotia/Maine as a minimal CAT 1 still. Even a more Western direction toward Cape Cod is entirely possible. Models aren't set in stone yet.

"nobody remotely credible is buying into landfall as a hurricane with Lee"

I have heard nothing of the sort. We are still multiple days out before Lee comes here. Making your opinion seem like fact, such as what you are doing, is just as bad as fear-mongering. I am not saying Lee will or will not hit as a hurricane. We don't know yet.

Can you provide some sources among credible mets who currently believe it's likely Lee will be a category 1 upon landfall? Maine seems significantly too far W, SE Nova Scotia or New England with a quick hook may be possible, but given the current expectation of a rapid slowdown upon approach Maine simply looks extremely unlikely at this time to face Hurricane conditions.

That's simply the reality of where we currently stand, this isn't subjective.

Agreed that the slowdown over cool water will prevent hurricane force winds aloft from mixing to the surface in anything other than gusts, convection will be pretty shallow. NHC's highest hurricane-force odds over land are in the 5-10% category for a small portion of SW Nova Scotia. It's no Fiona but that doesn't mean it won't be a damaging system.

[Hurricane2022]

It doesn't make much difference whether Lee makes landfall as a large Category 1 hurricane or an extratropical cyclone with winds in over 75+ mph. The impacts will likely be the same and as already mentioned, post-tropical cyclones can cause many effects as if they were still tropical, like Sandy that devastated NY and places near and far, and also like Ida, despite being weak on land, produced tornadoes that were devastating, and like Merbok, which caused some significant damage to Alaska as an strong Ex-TC, and like FIONA, which was a catastrophe to Canada in last year, and several other cyclones that were destructive in different places despite no longer being tropical cyclones. We must always be attentive to the facts, as these things can easily end forests, cities, properties and even lives, if we do not take the due care and attention that has been requested by our local meteorological agency and other institutions.

[mantis83]

lee's eye is opening up!

[PavelGaborik10]

Downplaying Lee's impacts as being only an "extratropical mess" is weird to me considering how severe Sandy's impacts were in 2012.

Sandy was 900 miles wide, Lee is barely more than 1/3rd her size.

Among recent times we've seen plenty of high impact post-tropical events in the area...Sandy, Dorian and of course Fiona last year.

About the only thing Lee will have in common with all of them is the area(s) we expect to be impacted.

This isn't Dorian, this isn't Sandy and it damn sure isn't Fiona, this is expected to be a large, rapidly weakening TS strength mess upon arrival.

Let’s not forget that sometimes all it takes is 4 or 5 feet of storm surge to completely ruin an entire coast lines worth of property and possessions. Just because this isnt a category 3 rocketing up the coast, doesn’t mean millions of people aren’t gonna have a really terrible weekend.

I would anticipate a more broad area impacted but a lesser peak if Lee slows down as models currently suggest.

Though again, we don't even have the landfall point nailed yet, we still have some time regarding the eventual final destination.

[PavelGaborik10]

It doesn't make much difference whether Lee makes landfall as a large Category 1 hurricane or an extratropical cyclone with winds in over 75+ mph. The impacts will likely be the same and as already mentioned, post-tropical cyclones can cause many effects as if they were still tropical, like Sandy that devastated NY and places near and far, and also like Ida, despite being weak on land, produced tornadoes that were devastating, and like Merbok, which caused some significant damage to Alaska as an strong Ex-TC, and like FIONA, which was a catastrophe to Canada in last year, and several other cyclones that were destructive in different places despite no longer being tropical cyclones. We must always be attentive to the facts, as these things can easily end forests, cities, properties and even lives, if we do not take the due care and attention that has been requested by our local meteorological agency and other institutions.

I'm not sure if this is directed towards me, but if it is I think you're most certainly misunderstanding my posts.

I've been through several hurricanes in Atlantic Canada(Igor and Juan being the two most noteworthy) and neither held a candle to post tropical Fiona, which I also experienced in Eastern Nova Scotia last September.

Not all extra-tropical systems are equal, the current message from professionals in the Maritimes is that this is unlikely to be nearly as impactful as Dorian, Fiona is in its own category.

Truth be told I was looking towards chasing down Lee as well, that's very unlikely to transpire after the recent western and weaker trend from the models. The main difference between a system like Fiona is it phased with the trough coming onshore, Lee is looking to phase significantly offshore and then rapidly weaken on approach.

[CronkPSU]

Literally nothing I posted above was speaking in past-tense.

In fact, quite the opposite.

PS : The NHC has this well offshore as a minimal cat 1, it weakens significantly prior to landfall, nobody remotely credible is buying into landfall as a hurricane with Lee as you continue to suggest.

It is entirely possible for it to impact Nova Scotia/Maine as a minimal CAT 1 still. Even a more Western direction toward Cape Cod is entirely possible. Models aren't set in stone yet.

"nobody remotely credible is buying into landfall as a hurricane with Lee"

I have heard nothing of the sort. We are still multiple days out before Lee comes here. Making your opinion seem like fact, such as what you are doing, is just as bad as fear-mongering. I am not saying Lee will or will not hit as a hurricane. We don't know yet.

Can you provide some sources among credible mets who currently believe it's likely Lee will be a category 1 upon landfall? Maine seems significantly too far W, SE Nova Scotia or New England with a quick hook may be possible, but given the current expectation of a rapid slowdown upon approach Maine simply looks extremely unlikely at this time to face Hurricane conditions.

That's simply the reality of where we currently stand, this isn't subjective.

the NHC has Maine almost fully in the cone as a cat 1

[PavelGaborik10]

It is entirely possible for it to impact Nova Scotia/Maine as a minimal CAT 1 still. Even a more Western direction toward Cape Cod is entirely possible. Models aren't set in stone yet.

"nobody remotely credible is buying into landfall as a hurricane with Lee"

I have heard nothing of the sort. We are still multiple days out before Lee comes here. Making your opinion seem like fact, such as what you are doing, is just as bad as fear-mongering. I am not saying Lee will or will not hit as a hurricane. We don't know yet.

Can you provide some sources among credible mets who currently believe it's likely Lee will be a category 1 upon landfall? Maine seems significantly too far W, SE Nova Scotia or New England with a quick hook may be possible, but given the current expectation of a rapid slowdown upon approach Maine simply looks extremely unlikely at this time to face Hurricane conditions.

That's simply the reality of where we currently stand, this isn't subjective.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/211441_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

the NHC has Maine almost fully in the cone as a cat 1

It has just about everyone in the cone from New England up.

The reality is the models are showing a significant slowdown around this time period, hence why the next plot shows a significantly weakened 60 MPH system into the Maritimes.

The furthest west Lee travels, the more time to weaken over the water. Your best chance of receiving hurricane gusts are if the storm hits S Nova Scotia, or pulls a quick left hook into New England.

With models showing Lee phasing well offshore, the reality is it's extremely unlikely Lee deals hurricane conditions to Maine.

[CronkPSU]

Can you provide some sources among credible mets who currently believe it's likely Lee will be a category 1 upon landfall? .

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/211441_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

the NHC has Maine almost fully in the cone as a cat 1

It has just about everyone in the cone from New England up.

The reality is the models are showing a significant slowdown around this time period, hence why the next plot shows a significantly weakened 60 MPH system into the Maritimes.

yes after it crosses land for several hours...you asked for ANY credible source saying cat 1 into Maine, is the NHC not credible to you?

[dukeblue219]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/211441_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

the NHC has Maine almost fully in the cone as a cat 1

And yet their discussion says something more plausible:
Once the circulation reaches the colder water north of the Gulf Stream, more significant weakening is expected at the day 4-5 period as it quickly transitions to an extratropical low.

It's not that the storm won't be dangerous, but tropical? At that latitude?

[PavelGaborik10]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/211441_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

the NHC has Maine almost fully in the cone as a cat 1

It has just about everyone in the cone from New England up.

The reality is the models are showing a significant slowdown around this time period, hence why the next plot shows a significantly weakened 60 MPH system into the Maritimes.

yes after it crosses land for several hours...you asked for ANY credible source saying cat 1 into Maine, is the NHC not credible to you?

The NHC currently has Maine with 30-40% odds of receiving TS forced winds, roughly 20% lower than southern Nova Scotia.



The hurricane wind probabilities are significantly lower than that for Maine, in fact, they don't even currently exist according to this graph :



Hurricane conditions occuring in Maine is undeniably an outlier outcome as of this present moment.