ATL: NIGEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic
continues to produce some disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development of this system is expected over the next few
days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at
10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this
weekend over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1702019352915063285

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Another one to watch in Bermuda. For the third time this season we are under a Warning with the next storm coming down the pike. We’re a magnet this year…

[Kazmit]

Another one to watch in Bermuda. For the third time this season we are under a Warning with the next storm coming down the pike. We’re a magnet this year…

The past few years have been extremely active for us. Bermuda is near the top of the list of places most frequently hit by hurricanes.
https://hurricanecity.com/rank.htm
Luckily, they're typically quantity over quality. Fabian was the last really bad one.

[WalterWhite]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands continue to become better organized this evening.
Environmental conditions are favorable for further development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this
weekend as the low moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10
to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[abajan]

Another one to watch in Bermuda. For the third time this season we are under a Warning with the next storm coming down the pike. We’re a magnet this year…

The past few years have been extremely active for us. Bermuda is near the top of the list of places most frequently hit by hurricanes.
https://hurricanecity.com/rank.htm
Luckily, they're typically quantity over quality. Fabian was the last really bad one.

My next door neighbor's from there. She, and her son who lives there but frequently visits her, have often spoken of Fabian's ferocity.

[Sciencerocks]

[IsabelaWeather]

Is it just me, or is this disturbance moving due W? NHC has it moving NW the whole time.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Another one to watch in Bermuda. For the third time this season we are under a Warning with the next storm coming down the pike. We’re a magnet this year…

The past few years have been extremely active for us. Bermuda is near the top of the list of places most frequently hit by hurricanes.
https://hurricanecity.com/rank.htm
Luckily, they're typically quantity over quality. Fabian was the last really bad one.

In 2019 Humberto took a piece of my roof. Not as bad as Fabian but it was a proper storm. And Fay and Gonzalo, both making direct landfalls as hurricanes in the same week, that was an interesting pair.

[abajan]

Looks like our next tropical depression is about to form:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
have increased and become a little better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development, and this system is likely to become a tropical
depression during the day or so while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[MarioProtVI]

Looks like our next tropical depression is about to form:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
have increased and become a little better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development, and this system is likely to become a tropical
depression during the day or so while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

https://images2.imgbox.com/1c/74/RTSoocQi_o.gif

I think NHC’s 48-h is way too high. Still looks very broad and no sign of an LLC forming. Models don’t have genesis until Saturday/Sunday. Should be 60-70% 48-h IMO.

[SconnieCane]

Is it just me, or is this disturbance moving due W? NHC has it moving NW the whole time.

That shaded area on the TWO isn't a track cone, since there are no forecast track points for something that they aren't issuing advisories on. It's the area where genesis may occur with the disturbance in question.

Its size and orientation does imply a general direction of motion, but it should be used with caution.

[Sciencerocks]

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I think NHC’s 48-h is way too high. Still looks very broad and no sign of an LLC forming. Models don’t have genesis until Saturday/Sunday. Should be 60-70% 48-h IMO.

Today is Thursday; Saturday is <48 hours away.

[IsabelaWeather]

Is it just me, or is this disturbance moving due W? NHC has it moving NW the whole time.

That shaded area on the TWO isn't a track cone, since there are no forecast track points for something that they aren't issuing advisories on. It's the area where genesis may occur with the disturbance in question.

Its size and orientation does imply a general direction of motion, but it should be used with caution.

That's not really true, though. The highlighted area is the area they expect a COC to form. Since it is narrow and slanted NW they obviously expect the main disturbed weather to move to the NW.

In fact, the NHC even says so.

...and this system is likely to become a tropical
depression during the day or so while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic...

As the day goes on it looks more and more westward, so I dont see why they don't show that.

[Sciencerocks]

Nice LLC forming! I think we're within 12 or so hours away from a depression with the organization of the convection forming ontop of the LLC. A good Ascat would do it.

[Michele B]

Another one to watch in Bermuda. For the third time this season we are under a Warning with the next storm coming down the pike. We’re a magnet this year…

Everybody gets a turn in the barrel....

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a broad low pressure area located
about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development, and this system is very likely to become a tropical
depression during the next day or so while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[zzzh]

Condition looks favorable. Wouldn't be surprised if it becomes another major hurricane.

[Teban54]

And God said, "Let there be convection," and there was convection.