2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[TallyTracker]

Going to be interesting to see what October/November are like (though I don't expect much at all out of the latter). While most +ENSO years have reduced activity in the late season, this is not always the case, at least for October. 2014 and 2018 both were weak Niños that produced multiple hurricanes and a C4+ in October. 2023's Niño is stronger than those years but has been more active so far. Then you have 2004 which had a hyperactive Aug/Sep and only two weak storms in October.

If we have at least average ACE in Oct/Nov we should at least come close to the hyperactive threshold. Climate models have seemingly been trending stronger with Caribbean shear for October in recent runs. If that verifies, it would reduce the chances of October Caribbean activity but there could always be a favorable window at some point.

2009 is another year I think of that featured Hurricane Ida in the Caribbean and Gulf in November.

[MetroMike]

Of more immediate concern appears the Western basin is shut down for the rest of the month.
Will there even be favorable conditions returning as the area which should be favored by climo standards?

My area is still plagued by year long drought conditions and could use a tropical system or two to begin to make up the 15 inch + rainfall deficit for the year. Critical times here in an isolated area on the west coast.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1702425660592161127



Good thread from Danny Morris on Twitter, he talks about tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean this year with an El Niño and also gives some opinions about the next season.

[Ianswfl]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1702425660592161127?t=OlYXGVortCK9s85rFJKpCw&s=19
Good thread from Danny Morris on Twitter, he talks about tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean this year with an El Niño and also gives some opinions about the next season.

If the waters are as hot as the long range models predict and the precip maps are legit then 2024 is going to be rocking like 2004 or 2005 landfall wise. Probably could push going Greek as well I'm thinking.

[cainjamin]

This is a pretty crazy stat. Those are some big years there; average total ACE is 202. We'll see how the back half of the season goes, but it looks like we'll keep adding on as the MDR keeps spitting out storms.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1702432114439065805

[Hurricane2022]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1702425660592161127?t=OlYXGVortCK9s85rFJKpCw&s=19
Good thread from Danny Morris on Twitter, he talks about tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean this year with an El Niño and also gives some opinions about the next season.

If the waters are as hot as the long range models predict and the precip maps are legit then 2024 is going to be rocking like 2004 or 2005 landfall wise. Probably could push going Greek as well I'm thinking.

We dont use Greek Alphabet since 2021,

[rockice]

The pattern just doesn't favor Gulf tracks imo.

[Ianswfl]

If El Nino winds don't rip in the Gulf in Oct and Nov. I think we will see a couple Gulf monsters. Saw with Michael in the northern Gulf with above normal temps. Unless tons of fronts start dropping down and nothing to get sucked up from the Caribbean during that time. Same with Kate 85.

[weeniepatrol]

NHC has marked the wave behind 97L.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
by the middle part of next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter as it continues moving westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[IsabelaWeather]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1702425660592161127?t=OlYXGVortCK9s85rFJKpCw&s=19
Good thread from Danny Morris on Twitter, he talks about tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean this year with an El Niño and also gives some opinions about the next season.

If the waters are as hot as the long range models predict and the precip maps are legit then 2024 is going to be rocking like 2004 or 2005 landfall wise. Probably could push going Greek as well I'm thinking.

We dont use Greek Alphabet since 2021,

Wait, really? What do we do then if we go past "W"?

[Teban54]

If the waters are as hot as the long range models predict and the precip maps are legit then 2024 is going to be rocking like 2004 or 2005 landfall wise. Probably could push going Greek as well I'm thinking.

We dont use Greek Alphabet since 2021,

Wait, really? What do we do then if we go past "W"?

The use of Greek alphabet was discontinued after 2020 and replaced with two auxiliary lists, one for the Atlantic and one for EPAC.

The auxiliary lists can be found here on Wikipedia.

[Cachondo23]

If the waters are as hot as the long range models predict and the precip maps are legit then 2024 is going to be rocking like 2004 or 2005 landfall wise. Probably could push going Greek as well I'm thinking.

We dont use Greek Alphabet since 2021,

Wait, really? What do we do then if we go past "W"?

“The Greek alphabet will never be used again as it was distracting and confusing”

[IsabelaWeather]

We dont use Greek Alphabet since 2021,

Wait, really? What do we do then if we go past "W"?

“The Greek alphabet will never be used again as it was distracting and confusing”

Where does the quote come from? Doesnt make sense to post a quite with nothing else, no source or any information.

[ThunderForce]

This is what they said about the Greek letters following 2021:

Geneva, 17 March 2021 - The World Meteorological Organization’s Hurricane Committee has retired Dorian (2019) and Laura, Eta and Iota (2020) from the rotating lists of Atlantic tropical cyclone names because of the death and destruction they caused. It also decided that the Greek alphabet will not be used in future because it creates a distraction from the communication of hazard and storm warnings and is potentially confusing.

Greek Alphabet

The annual name list has been exhausted on two occasions during the past 15 years, and it is likely that this will occur again in the future.

Hurricane Committee members agreed to create a supplemental list of names A-Z (excluding Q, U, as well as X, Y, and Z on the Atlantic list) that would be used in lieu of the Greek alphabet when the standard list is exhausted in a given season. Names on this list could be retired and replaced, when required. Names beginning with Q, U, X, Y and Z are still not common enough or easily understood in local languages to be slotted into the rotating lists.

The 2020 season showed that there were a number of shortcomings with the use of the Greek alphabet.

There can be too much focus on the use of Greek alphabet names and not the actual impacts from the storm. This can greatly detract from the needed impact and safety messaging.
There is confusion with some Greek alphabet names when they are translated into other languages used within the Region.
The pronunciation of several of the Greek letters (Zeta, Eta, Theta) are similar and occur in succession. In 2020, this resulted in storms with very similar sounding names occurring simultaneously, which led to messaging challenges rather than streamlined and clear communication.
Impacts from Eta and Iota were severe enough that those names have formally retired by the Hurricane Committee. There was no formal plan for retiring Greek names, and the future use of these names would be inappropriate.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-hurricane-committee-retires-tropical-cyclone-names-and-ends-use-of-greek

[aspen]

We’ve passed 100 ACE already. With Nigel and possibly Ophelia on the way in the next week or so, this season could finish with 130-140+ ACE, far higher than last year in a La Niña.

[WalterWhite]

We’ve passed 100 ACE already. With Nigel and possibly Ophelia on the way in the next week or so, this season could finish with 130-140+ ACE, far higher than last year in a La Niña.

There is a realistic change this season becomes hyperactive, which would make 2023 the first El Niño season to be hyperactive since 2004.

[weeniepatrol]

We’ve passed 100 ACE already. With Nigel and possibly Ophelia on the way in the next week or so, this season could finish with 130-140+ ACE, far higher than last year in a La Niña.

Let's be honest, there is a rapidly increasing chance this season finishes hyperactive.

I really do not buy zero systems after Nigel and Ophelia. It's only 15 September

[IsabelaWeather]

We’ve passed 100 ACE already. With Nigel and possibly Ophelia on the way in the next week or so, this season could finish with 130-140+ ACE, far higher than last year in a La Niña.

Nigel alone should get us to 140+

[WalterWhite]

Unlike in 2021, the ITCZ does not appear to be significantly displaced to the south, which should ensure that most tropical waves develop in the Atlantic during October and November, rather than in the Pacific. Moreover, despite the ongoing El Niño, wind shear has also been pretty low throughout the Western Atlantic. Additionally, SSTs in the Western Atlantic appear to be higher than where they were during 2020.

I doubt we are going to see 4 late season major hurricanes in the Western Atlantic like we did in 2020. However, I would not be surprised if we saw 1 or 2 major hurricanes in the Western Atlantic during the months of October and November. Models are already indicating potential activity in the Caribbean later this month, and that could potentially be continued into October.

[weeniepatrol]

Unlike in 2021, the ITCZ does not appear to be significantly displaced to the south, which should ensure that most tropical waves develop in the Atlantic during October and November, rather than in the Pacific. Moreover, despite the ongoing El Niño, wind shear has also been pretty low throughout the Western Atlantic. Additionally, SSTs in the Western Atlantic appear to be higher than where they were during 2020.

I doubt we are going to see 4 late season major hurricanes in the Western Atlantic like we did in 2020. However, I would not be surprised if we saw 1 or 2 major hurricanes in the Western Atlantic during the months of October and November. Models are already indicating potential activity in the Caribbean later this month, and that could potentially be continued into October.

Exactly. Zero signs of inhibitive El Nino conditions thus far, so it makes sense to anticipate Caribbean October activity.

I mean, I know that current shear is NOT future shear, but come on, this is NOT el Nino:



The fact that we are about to surpass the ACE of the EPAC (with Nigel) during an El Nino really makes you think