ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

This image speaks volumes on how proficient the NHC has become at track forecasting:

https://images2.imgbox.com/23/4e/r7LH8Kbc_o.png

With the advent of quantum computing, I believe their intensity forecasting will become just as accurate in about 15 to 20 years' time.

It was a good forecast, but a relatively easy one, as was Idalia. There was very good model consensus on a pass near western Nova Scotia. Both Lee and Idalia were butting up against an upper-level trof, which provided fairly clear steering currents. Our 7-day track two days earlier was similar. There were some much more difficult typhoon forecasts in the West Pacific this season. Models completely disagreed with very weak steering currents.

Intensity forecasting is another matter. No matter how sophisticated the computer, the limiting factor is always going to be the input data. It's a challenge to get the data needed for a storm way out to sea. Until that problem is solved, better computers won't make any difference.

[PavelGaborik10]

Finally dropped to 60 KTS, though that is still likely being generous.

[cainjamin]

Reporting in from the Annapolis Valley in NS. Lost power around 10 am and the sump pump immediately started to fill out. Had to bail it out non-stop until the power came back on about 30 mins ago or else the whole basement would have flooded. The winds haven't been that bad, but we've had our wettest summer on record so there's really nowhere for all the extra water to go. Just hoping the power stays on and I don't have to spend all night bailing water out of the basement!

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/NateTWN/status/1703113431480467763

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/zoom_earth/status/1703120804756471867

[Sciencerocks]

I'd almost argue because of the convection close to the center that this could still be somewhat shallow warm core at some level. Maybe subtropical? I can understand the declaration earlier as extratropical but this development does leave at least some pulse.

[CrazyC83]

Having been at a conference the last week, I missed a lot.

It appears we won't have to worry about retiring Lee based on current impacts though.

[abajan]

https://twitter.com/NateTWN/status/1703113431480467763

Is that 117 km/h (73 mph)?

[wxman57]

https://twitter.com/NateTWN/status/1703113431480467763

Is that 117 km/h (73 mph)?

That sounds right (kph).

[Xyls]

Well, seems the storm weakened more than anticipated and came in at an angle where the Bay of Fundy surge wasn't going to be a real issue.

I'm here in NB and this one is very tame I would say compared to others.
Arthur is still the worst one I've been in.
Fiona, Dorian and even Irene from 2011 may have been more impactful than this one thus far?

The flopicane is flopping.

[mitchell]

Plane is finding that there may be some 50 kt max wind, nothing more. Strongest wind observation I can find at present is in Halifax, about 175 miles from the center. Wind gusts to 48 kts at present, but were as high as 57 kts. Not even any 25 mph sustained in Boston. Some gusts to TS strength in Cape Cod, but no sustained 34kt+ wind.

This storm passed near at least 2 NOAA bouys east of Cape Cod and neither one of them recorded sustained winds over 41 knots, or gusts above 60 knots. I'm surprised this storm continued to be classified a hurricane for as long as it did.

[PavelGaborik10]

Well, seems the storm weakened more than anticipated and came in at an angle where the Bay of Fundy surge wasn't going to be a real issue.

I'm here in NB and this one is very tame I would say compared to others.
Arthur is still the worst one I've been in.
Fiona, Dorian and even Irene from 2011 may have been more impactful than this one thus far?

The flopicane is flopping.

That's pretty crazy if Dorian and Fiona were more impactful there than Lee considering how damn far away from there they were when they came ashore.

I do remember reading about Allen having some decent impacts there way back when, what about Noel and Kyle? They were non-events in Eastern NS.

This seems to be a huge dud, strongest official gust I've come across at any station is just 108 KM/H(67 MPH).

I wasn't exactly exactly a massive, impactful event but I did think it would at least produce some 75-80 MPH gusts, at the very least widespread gusts of 70+.

[Xyls]

Well, seems the storm weakened more than anticipated and came in at an angle where the Bay of Fundy surge wasn't going to be a real issue.

I'm here in NB and this one is very tame I would say compared to others.
Arthur is still the worst one I've been in.
Fiona, Dorian and even Irene from 2011 may have been more impactful than this one thus far?

The flopicane is flopping.

That's pretty crazy if Dorian and Fiona were more impactful there than Lee considering how damn far away from there they were when they came ashore.

I do remember reading about Allen having some decent impacts there way back when, what about Noel and Kyle? They were non-events in Eastern NS.

This seems to be a huge dud, strongest official gust I've come across at any station is just 108 KM/H(67 MPH).

I wasn't exactly exactly a massive, impactful event but I did think it would at least produce some 75-80 MPH gusts, at the very least widespread gusts of 70+.

Well, I lived in different parts of the province for each of these storms so that may not mean I have the best perspective of the province overall.

I was in Western NB for Arthur which had power out for 4 days, and was a very powerful storm that had winds that definitely shook the house for at least 8 hours.

Dorian I was in Saint John area and I remember the large amounts of rain and localized flooding it caused. It also took down a bunch of trees in Kings Square.

Fiona I was in Moncton and I didn't actually think it was that bad (still windier and wetter than Lee), but Fiona caused significant damage in areas like Shediac NB due to the storm surge.

I still vaguely remember Irene being a big wind maker up here in 2011. Although not many impacts other than that, and I had other life events going on which might make that one stick out more to me than I otherwise would remember. If I didn't know there was a hurricane here with Lee I doubt I would've realized. I've been in stronger fall nor'easters that are more memorable thus far. Most notable thing about Lee has been it's inconsistency...

[brad512]

Yeah, in NB, it basically got "bad" here for approximately maybe 3-4 hours around 10am-2pm with high wind and rain, ever since then despite the peak supposed to be actually in the evening here, the winds have been basically nonexistent since around that time. I doubt it's a temporary lull either because it's been like this for about 5-6 hours now, once the rain left it seems like there's basically no wind on the dry side here.

There are fairly widespread outages in NS and NB that are going down some now but that's just because NS Power sucks and NB Power is only a bit better than them. The one thing this storm coming in as ET and cold-core did good though was breaking the constant heat and humidity that's been going on the last week or so.

[WalterWhite]

There has already been a death in Maine reported from Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee:

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/post-tropical ... 09840.html

[Sciencerocks]

[shaneomac]

Here in Cape Breton and my chair fell over by the winds but we will survive !

[brad512]

Got 985.0mb on my barometer at 22m as lowest as the center passed about 10km from my location, pretty much in line with 983mb on NHC now, figured I would at least track that as my last thing to do with this storm, 10+ days of watching this thing, over!

[PavelGaborik10]

Not sure which was the most underwhelming between Teddy, Bill & Lee.

Complete and total flop, not a single official gust recorded at hurricane strength throughout the entire province.