Down to low, models don't know what to form... these model storms struggle because they want to go poleward/recurve
ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZSEP2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.0N 159.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 155.5E, APPROXIMATELY 632 NM EAST
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MSI AND A 202340Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS DEPICT A
DISORGANIZED, BROAD AND HIGHLY ELONGATED ROTATION WITH MULTIPLE SPINNERS
AND ASSOCIATED POCKETS OF CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
THE SYSTEM LIES WITHIN THE EASTERN REACHES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 96W IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C)
AND THE SUBSTANTIAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) DO NOT SUFFICE TO
COUNTERACT THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED TO THE
NORTHWEST, WHICH IS POSITIONED WELL TO ENHANCE OUTFLOW, IS ALSO USHERING
IN VERY DRY AIR AND WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CIRCULATION, HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY, AND
DO NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. GFS HAS NOTABLY
WEAKENED THE FORECASTED INTENSIFICATION OF 96W OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.