2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[REDHurricane]

We’ve passed 100 ACE already. With Nigel and possibly Ophelia on the way in the next week or so, this season could finish with 130-140+ ACE, far higher than last year in a La Niña.

I'm thinking 140 ACE should pretty much be a lock at this point, and hyperactive (>165) is looking more likely than not:


(Note this was last updated a week ago so WeatherTIger's actual forecast for today would be higher)

The real question in my mind is, are we going to approach or exceed ~200 ACE like the UKMET and University of Arizona have been predicting all along? We've probably got at least 2 more CV long trackers coming up in the next few weeks, plus anything that might spin up in the Caribbean or Gulf throughout the entirety of October and November. I'd give it about a 1/3 chance of reaching 200 right now, but it'll depend a lot on how Margot/Nigel end up performing before the CV season starts to subside.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Despite CDAS's cold bias, since mid August the tropical Atlantic has continued to get even warmer:





Contrasted with the critical enso 3.4:



Both are roughly neck and neck when it comes to anomalous warmth. This is probably a big reason why the el nino so far has failed to suppress the Atlantic in any meaningful way. Nigel looks to be another big ace maker and there's a signal for another long tracking CV storm around the 20th-25th range.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1702785965536760143

[Ianswfl]

Latest CFSv2 next June has similar very similar warm SST setup to this season, except has the Caribbean sea more above normal that earlier this season. If it's a hyperactive season that would favor stronger Carribean systems, and of course possible stronger system entering the Gulf if we get a long tracker like Ivan.

[Teban54]

Latest CFSv2 next June has similar very similar warm SST setup to this season, except has the Caribbean sea more above normal that earlier this season. If it's a hyperactive season that would favor stronger Carribean systems, and of course possible stronger system entering the Gulf if we get a long tracker like Ivan.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2023091606/cfs-mon_01_ssta_atl_9.png

Wrong thread, make a 2024 indicators thread and post it there

[Hurricane2022]

Latest CFSv2 next June has similar very similar warm SST setup to this season, except has the Caribbean sea more above normal that earlier this season. If it's a hyperactive season that would favor stronger Carribean systems, and of course possible stronger system entering the Gulf if we get a long tracker like Ivan.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2023091606/cfs-mon_01_ssta_atl_9.png

Wrong thread, make a 2024 indicators thread and post it there

But we're barely past the peak of the current hurricane season

[weeniepatrol]

Latest CFSv2 next June has similar very similar warm SST setup to this season, except has the Caribbean sea more above normal that earlier this season. If it's a hyperactive season that would favor stronger Carribean systems, and of course possible stronger system entering the Gulf if we get a long tracker like Ivan.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2023091606/cfs-mon_01_ssta_atl_9.png

There are reasons to weigh solutions like this one more than usual, but even still given the timeframe we will have to wait and see. As of right now, next year does look spooky. Climate guidance also shows La Niña developing by next Summer

[zzzh]

Post Nino years are usually favorable.

[WalterWhite]

2020 now has 15 storms as of September 17 00:00 UTC. The only seasons that had more storms by that time were 2005 and 2020. This means that, depending on how the rest of the season goes, 2021 could exhaust the main naming list.

Exhausting the main naming list would require only 6 more storms to form, which is more realistic than some might think. That could happen if 3 more storms form this September, 2 form in October, and 1 forms in November. Alternatively, that could happen if 4 more storms form this September, 1 forms in October, and 1 forms in November. Alternatively, that could happen if 2 more storms form this September, 3 form in October, and 1 forms in November. Alternatively, that could happen if 3 more storms form this September and 3 form in October.

With how many storms recent Septembers have had (2018 and 2019 with 7, 2020 with 10, 2021 with 9, and 2022 with 6), it seems probable that 2023 will get quite close to exhausting the main list, if not exhausting it outright.

EDIT: Exhausting the main naming list would require 7 more storms to form because Subtropical Storm 01L was unnamed. Still, this is very much possible.

[WalterWhite]

The five most recent seasons have had at least five or more storms form after September 17.

2018: 5 storms (Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, and Oscar)
2019: 8 storms (Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Pablo, Olga, Rebekah, and Sebastien)
2020: 7 storms (Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta, and Iota)
2021: 5 storms (Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, and Wanda)
2022: 8 storms (Gaston, Ian, Hermine, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Martin, and Nicole)

The minimum storm count after September 17 is 5, and the average storm count after September 17 is 7. Given that 2023 already has 15 storms, the year should, if it follows the patterns of previous hurricane seasons, end with approximately 22 storms.

[Hurricane2022]

That could happen if 3 more storms form this September, 2 form in October, and 1 forms in November. Alternatively, that could happen if 4 more storms form this September, 1 forms in October, and 1 forms in November. Alternatively, that could happen if 2 more storms form this September, 3 form in October, and 1 forms in November. Alternatively, that could happen if 3 more storms form this September and 3 form in October.

[zzzh]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1703238698727542911

[Ianswfl]

Latest CFSv2 next June has similar very similar warm SST setup to this season, except has the Caribbean sea more above normal that earlier this season. If it's a hyperactive season that would favor stronger Carribean systems, and of course possible stronger system entering the Gulf if we get a long tracker like Ivan.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2023091606/cfs-mon_01_ssta_atl_9.png

There are reasons to weigh solutions like this one more than usual, but even still given the timeframe we will have to wait and see. As of right now, next year does look spooky. Climate guidance also shows La Niña developing by next Summer

Yea, from a landfall standpoint next year I think will be a biggie, especially with the Caribbean possibly boiling. This year it's the open atlantic fish storms. Next year with no El Nino I expect the threads to be in the Gulf and Caribbean more. This could be a 2004 or 2005 landfall type season next year.

[ScottNAtlanta]

With the El Nino winter weather preferred storm tracks...that could take some of the heat out of the GOM and the East Coast. Those Miller A type storms are usually very prevalent inn El Nino winters. That produces a lot of snow in the SE US and all the way up the coast. Warmer water in the GOM feeds those type storms too.

[WalterWhite]

GEFS ensembles are indicating that later this month:

- Tropical Storm Nigel could become Major Hurricane Nigel.
- The 0%/40% disturbance marked by the National Hurricane Center could become Major Hurricane Ophelia.
- A disturbance off the East Coast could become Tropical Storm Philippe.
- Energy from the Central American Gyre could become Tropical Storm Rina in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean Sea.

This alone would bring the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season to 18 storms, 7 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. These past few Septembers (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022) have featured a large quantity of storms, and 2023 appears to be no exception.

[WalterWhite]

From 2018 to 2022, the Atlantic has produced, on average, 1.8 major hurricanes (approximately 2) after September 20.

2018: Michael
2019: Lorenzo
2020: Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, and Iota
2021: Sam
2022: Ian

This means that, even if Tropical Storm Nigel becomes a major hurricane, we should expect about 2 more major hurricanes after that, which should give the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season about 6 major hurricanes by the time the season is finished.

[Category5Kaiju]

You can surely bet that this season will really cause wx enthusiasts to re-consider the exact role El Nino plays in relation to Atlantic activity, especially with the idea that the Atlantic basin may not be as cool as it was in past years going forward.

[WalterWhite]

You can surely bet that this season will really cause wx enthusiasts to re-consider the exact role El Nino plays in relation to Atlantic activity, especially with the idea that the Atlantic basin may not be as cool as it was in past years going forward.

It is all related to the West African Monsoon. At this point, the West African Monsoon is like an insurance policy for the North Atlantic: it protects the basin from below-average activity.

[NotSparta]

You can surely bet that this season will really cause wx enthusiasts to re-consider the exact role El Nino plays in relation to Atlantic activity, especially with the idea that the Atlantic basin may not be as cool as it was in past years going forward.

El Nino still has the same effect, it's just the Atlantic got so warm it overpowered the El Nino signal

[WalterWhite]

You can surely bet that this season will really cause wx enthusiasts to re-consider the exact role El Nino plays in relation to Atlantic activity, especially with the idea that the Atlantic basin may not be as cool as it was in past years going forward.

El Nino still has the same effect, it's just the Atlantic got so warm it overpowered the El Nino signal

This year, El Niño has barely had an impact on Caribbean vertical wind shear. Wind shear has been near-average these past few months. It might technically be an El Niño year, but atmospherically, it seems more like an ENSO neutral year.