Poll: Will the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season feature at least one major hurricane in either October or November?

[WalterWhite]

Options:

1) Yes

2) No

[cycloneye]

Made the poll for the members to vote and will be open for 10 days. Added the Dont know option.

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah I think we'll get one in Oct

[Old-TimeCane]

I think yes, most likely in October.

[kevin]

Yes I think 1 in October. Even in an El Nino, the SSTs are just so high that any brief window of lower shear will be sufficient in October imo.

[Chris90]

I voted yes, I don't think my seasonal numbers are going to pan out. For my S2K poll numbers to verify, I need Margot to become a hurricane, I need just 1 more storm, Nigel, to form and become a hurricane, and I need Lee to be the last major, with the season completely shutting down after this.

I have a pretty strong feeling my numbers are going to be too low in every category.

[Category5Kaiju]

What I am very curious to see is assuming this is indeed a "yes," what kind of track that kind of storm would take. It would be nice to see a nice, fish major that never affects land at any given point in time. But as we've seen before, we could have a track like Matthew or Hazel, or the more infamous Caribbean to Gulf recurving systems like Wilma or the 1921 Tampa Hurricane, during this time of the year. And it's quite obvious that this year hasn't exactly behaved like a moderate El Nino in many parameters.

[Teban54]

As of writing, 67% of respondents voted yes.

Great to see that since late July and August, the tide has turned from "the Atlantic needs to overperform in August before El Nino shuts down the basin at the start of September" to "Yes we'll probably get a late-season major despite the Nino"

[cycloneye]

Those who have not voted yet on this poll hurry because it closes for voting tonight at 8 PM EDT.

[Category5Kaiju]

For sure, October will be a very interesting month to watch. I think the troughing we're seeing now might be great for averting any Cape Verde threats, but if this sticks around, I would think that that might increase the risk of systems that form in the Caribbean to move northward.

[MarioProtVI]

On the contrary, AOI 1 is most likely to be the last major of the season (after Nigel which brings us to 5). There’s a good chance October will be less active then people think, with a STJ dropping south from the GoM and practically rendering most of the west-central Caribbean unfavorable for development. We will probably only see a high latitude subtropics Cat 1 and/or a very weak and sheared storm that for some reason decides to develop our in the open but gets sheared to oblivion a day after forming.

[WiscoWx02]

Thinking not. Had the same feeling in 2021 after Sam went up and nothing really happened after that. I know conditions are vastly different now than then but have a feeling things will shut down once Nigel or Ophelia leave the picture.

[Yellow Evan]

The El Nino subtropical jet makes it a challenge but it's not impossible.

[WeatherBoy2000]

I won't be surprised if one forms but El Nino should prevent anything like 2020 from happening again.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1703796837763723714




Climate models are hinting at a largely unfavorable Caribbean/gulf in the late season due to El Nino suppression finally kicking into gear. However, ssts are very warm, 30c+ temps dominate the gulf/Caribbean to a much larger extent compared to epac this year. Models indicate that the mdr through the ecar might still be favorable into October. Could see a storm like Gonzalo 2014.

[MarioProtVI]

On the contrary, AOI 1 is most likely to be the last major of the season (after Nigel which brings us to 5). There’s a good chance October will be less active then people think, with a STJ dropping south from the GoM and practically rendering most of the west-central Caribbean unfavorable for development. We will probably only see a high latitude subtropics Cat 1 and/or a very weak and sheared storm that for some reason decides to develop our in the open but gets sheared to oblivion a day after forming.

Coming back to this after today’s developments, I think Lee was our last major. Models are significantly backing off the AOI and Nigel flopping with its broad core likely enough to prevent a major out of this one despite favorable conditions.