ATL: NIGEL - Models

[WalterWhite]

[Teban54]

https://i.postimg.cc/NjW7r1RC/97-L-intensity-latest.png

Surprisingly aggressive intensity forecast considering people thought in the 97L discussion thread that it will likely not become anything more than a TD or weak TS.

[WalterWhite]

Not many models are indicating development.

[mantis83]

this looks to recurve well east of florida and the entire east coast, however bermuda needs to be alert as the gfs goes just east while the euro goes just west of bermuda

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

12z GFS puts Bermuda in the western eyewall at 180 hours. That would make this our fourth hurricane in three weeks: Franklin, Idalia, Lee, and... I guess this will be Nigel?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Well that's not great.

[ScottNAtlanta]

this looks to recurve well east of florida and the entire east coast, however bermuda needs to be alert as the gfs goes just east while the euro goes just west of bermuda

It's a little too early to make a statement like that. I just looked at the latest GFS and EPS, and it seems future Nigel's track could be heavily influenced by what Margot does long term. The GFS seems to think Margot will curve around west and come back to as far south as 30N. I find that kinda hard to believe looking at the pattern. If Margot does not do that then you will have the high pressure coming off of Atlantic Canada joining with the high pressure in the Atlantic effectively blocking Nigel's northern progress. As of now...everything is on the table because we don't have a classified system to track yet.

[mantis83]

that's a good point. yesterday's cmc seemed to join the highs together, while the gfs and euro show an escape route

[Iceresistance]

HFBI wants a Category 4 from 97L


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4E0P.png

[ElectricStorm]

12z hurricane models are generally showing a pretty broad core, which would likely prevent this from becoming too strong. Of the four models, only the HWRF has it becoming a major. Not surprised the NHC bumped the peak down slightly, although this becoming a major is still very possible (maybe even likely)

18z runs are about to start, we'll see if they're similar to the 12z runs

[ElectricStorm]

Well so far both HAFS are much stronger with a tighter core. Both have a major by hour 63 and approaching Cat 4

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Spaghetti continue to shift east, away from Bermuda.

[WalterWhite]

[TallyTracker]

https://i.postimg.cc/W4sMh6R3/15-L-intensity-latest.png

With that spread, I like the NHC’s prediction of a 115 - 120 mph peak. Small chance of briefly hitting Cat 4 but not likely in my opinion.

[cycloneye]

None of the models including HAFS A-B, HWRF and the oficial NHC track go up to cat 3.

[Teban54]

None of the models including HAFS A-B, HWRF and the oficial NHC track go up to cat 3.

https://i.imgur.com/Ivm4Avg.png

I believe the OFCL line is just an interpolation based on the current BT initial intensity and NHC's forecast increments from the last advisory cycle. They'll probably lower the intensity forecast in 30 minutes, though.