#8 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 18, 2023 10:15 am
Thanks, Yaakov.
I found these seven TCs that formed from a nontropical origin that later hit the SE US as an H:
-Arthur 2014: early July; developing weak Nino; cat 2 into NC
-Gaston 2004: late Aug; weak Niño; cat 1 into SC
-Diana of 1984: early to mid Sep; incoming Nina; cat 2 into NC
-Cindy of 1959: early Jul; neutral ENSO; cat 1 into SC
-Yankee Hurricane of 1935: formed from nontropical low E of Bermuda Oct 30 that hit SE FL as a cat 2 H Nov 4th! Warm neutral ENSO
-Storm #5 of 1913: early Oct; formed from nontropical low off NE US and hit SC as cat 1/developing Nino
-Storm #2 of 1898: late Aug; cold neutral; cat 1 into GA
So, a TC that is purely nontropical in origin has resulted in a landfalling H on the SE US coast ~every 18 years on average over the last 125 years. The strongest landfalls were the three cat 2 hits, Arthur of 2014, Diana of 1984, and the Yankee H of 1935. Landfalls: 3 SC, 2 NC, 1 GA, 1 FL
TS landfalls on the SE coast from nontropical origins have occurred much more often than the once/18 years of H landfalls. But that’s intuitive because it typically takes a good bit of time for transition to tropical and there often isn’t a lot of time over water with them developing close to home.
I confirmed the much higher frequency of SE TS landfalls vs H landfalls from a non-tropical origin: 12 in 73 years or ~1 every 6 years on average. So, chances of a nontropical originating TC landfalling on the SE US as a TS are ~3 times higher than landfalling as a H:
2022: Colin
2021: Danny
2015: Ana
2007: Gabrielle
2002: Kyle
1981: Bret
1976: Dottie
1967: Doria
1965: #9
1962: #2
1960: Brenda
1952: #3
To clarify for the readers, the stats I presented are only for those that actually made landfall on the SE US. So, they wouldn’t apply to any that go NE and stay offshore, which may increase the chance for a H vs those that hit the SE.
Based on everything I’ve seen for the current situation along with my analysis of over seven decades of history, I predict that IF this were to ever transition to a TC and IF it then were to landfall on the SE US that it would landfall there as a TS. Also, if it were to landfall there, I predict either NC or SC with further N in SC favored over further S. This doesn’t look to me like a FL or GA landfall though nothing is certain because nothing is ever certain especially this far out.
Last edited by
LarryWx on Mon Sep 18, 2023 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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