Texas Fall 2023

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weatherdude1108
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#381 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Sep 19, 2023 9:20 am

Fifty Rock wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:Speaking of Lubbock, some of my wife's relatives there said they got almost 5 inches of rain this last week. That's a ton of rain for that region of the South Plains, close to a third of their annual rainfall.


We got 5 plus inches here near Albany Texas over that same time and another good soaking Saturday morning. All that dead brown looking grass we had is turning green again. It’s crazy to see the difference from jus a few weeks ago.


Oh yeah, it looked much greener up there than it does in the central part of the state. More humid too.

I saw evidence of a wildfire on a part of the drive between Cedar Park and Lubbock (can't remember where). Acreage and acreage of charred ground and tanned shrubs and medium sized oak tree leaves that got too hot. Not sure if the trees will come back(?). Was sad to see.

Although the tinder dry zero green areas around here are showing some tiny green sprouts popping up. Another inch or two would turn the brown corner to greenage.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#382 Postby Fifty Rock » Tue Sep 19, 2023 10:15 am

tajmahal wrote:
Fifty Rock wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:Speaking of Lubbock, some of my wife's relatives there said they got almost 5 inches of rain this last week. That's a ton of rain for that region of the South Plains, close to a third of their annual rainfall.


We got 5 plus inches here near Albany Texas over that same time and another good soaking Saturday morning. All that dead brown looking grass we had is turning green again. It’s crazy to see the difference from jus a few weeks ago.


The Albany ALBT2 site has reported 2.97 inches of rain so far this month through the 18th. That site is south of town at the water treatment plant. By the way, one of my grandfathers was born on a ranch on the Clear Fork of the Brazos northeast of town.


Yes, they received quite a bit less than we did, I'm about 6 miles South of town towards Moran, about half or our rain came from pop up storms that sat over us or moved little to none. it's getting greener and greener every day. Hoping to get some more rain without the severe today.
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underthwx
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#383 Postby underthwx » Tue Sep 19, 2023 10:19 am

Fifty Rock wrote:
tajmahal wrote:
Fifty Rock wrote:
We got 5 plus inches here near Albany Texas over that same time and another good soaking Saturday morning. All that dead brown looking grass we had is turning green again. It’s crazy to see the difference from jus a few weeks ago.


The Albany ALBT2 site has reported 2.97 inches of rain so far this month through the 18th. That site is south of town at the water treatment plant. By the way, one of my grandfathers was born on a ranch on the Clear Fork of the Brazos northeast of town.


Yes, they received quite a bit less than we did, I'm about 6 miles South of town towards Moran, about half or our rain came from pop up storms that sat over us or moved little to none. it's getting greener and greener every day. Hoping to get some more rain without the severe today.


Not much rain to speak of here in Southern Brazoria county, but beggars can't be choosers, some is better than none, it is definitely more comfortable, as far as the humidity is concerned, so I'm not taking it for granted...
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#384 Postby Fifty Rock » Tue Sep 19, 2023 10:20 am

weatherdude1108 wrote:
Fifty Rock wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:Speaking of Lubbock, some of my wife's relatives there said they got almost 5 inches of rain this last week. That's a ton of rain for that region of the South Plains, close to a third of their annual rainfall.


We got 5 plus inches here near Albany Texas over that same time and another good soaking Saturday morning. All that dead brown looking grass we had is turning green again. It’s crazy to see the difference from jus a few weeks ago.


Oh yeah, it looked much greener up there than it does in the central part of the state. More humid too.

I saw evidence of a wildfire on a part of the drive between Cedar Park and Lubbock (can't remember where). Acreage and acreage of charred ground and tanned shrubs and medium sized oak tree leaves that got too hot. Not sure if the trees will come back(?). Was sad to see.

Although the tinder dry zero green areas around here are showing some tiny green sprouts popping up. Another inch or two would turn the brown corner to greenage.


There have been numerous fires to the Southwest of Abilene and near us, luckily most of them were able to be contained and occurred when the wind wasn't a factor. We just built a new house out in the middle of fire country, not much to stop them out here. The green grass is a welcome sign.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#385 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Sep 19, 2023 11:19 am

It's not moving much east, but it looks like he SPC just expanded tornado/hail/wind probs a bit south. Maybe a storm will survive into DFW if we are lucky.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#386 Postby Gotwood » Tue Sep 19, 2023 12:47 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:It's not moving much east, but it looks like he SPC just expanded tornado/hail/wind probs a bit south. Maybe a storm will survive into DFW if we are lucky.

Humidity levels are very low.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#387 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 19, 2023 3:47 pm

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#388 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 19, 2023 5:25 pm

The storm coming to Denton is MEAN!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#389 Postby cstrunk » Tue Sep 19, 2023 5:27 pm

Iceresistance wrote:The storm coming to Denton is MEAN!


It'll be interesting to see how long it lasts. HRRR has shown it but dies off before getting too far east/southeast.

It has another round making it through DFW later.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#390 Postby TarrantWx » Tue Sep 19, 2023 5:34 pm

Iceresistance wrote:The storm coming to Denton is MEAN!


It's been taking a hard right turn also heading towards the Metro now
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#391 Postby dpep4 » Tue Sep 19, 2023 5:35 pm

The NWS warnings keeps saying that storm near Denton is moving east, but radar continues to show it diving southeast. Looks like it will run along I-35E through Corinth, Lantana, and Lewisville.

edit: Aaaand a Lewisville cell has popped up.
Last edited by dpep4 on Tue Sep 19, 2023 5:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#392 Postby cstrunk » Tue Sep 19, 2023 5:42 pm

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2163.html

Mesoscale Discussion 2163
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Areas affected...north-central Texas.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686...

Valid 192220Z - 192345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686
continues.

SUMMARY...A supercell across north-central Texas could pose a large
hail threat this evening.

DISCUSSION...A supercell formed on the western periphery of mid-day
elevated convection which moved east across north-central Texas.
Given only weak CINH near this storm and its radar depiction over
the last hour, this storm has likely rooted and is surface based in
a region with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. 40+ knots of mid-level
northwesterly flow (per FWD VWP) has yielded near 50 knots of
effective shear. This environment will support supercells capable of
large hail (potentially 2+ inches). If this storm continues to turn
right, which it has started to do over the last 15 to 30 minutes,
portions of at least the northern DFW metro area may be impacted by
large to very large hail this evening.

If this storm continues to maintain its current intensity or
strengthen, an expansion of watch 686 may be needed.

..Bentley/Bunting.. 09/19/2023
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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#393 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Sep 19, 2023 6:26 pm

Quite the storm here in Ponder. That rain shaft was unreal.
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mmmmsnouts
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#394 Postby mmmmsnouts » Tue Sep 19, 2023 6:56 pm

Yet another storm that just barely missed the official DFW site so it doesn't "count."
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#395 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Sep 19, 2023 6:58 pm

mmmmsnouts wrote:Yet another storm that just barely missed the official DFW site so it doesn't "count."


That's what it was looking like. Oh well, another one that missed MBY as well :roll:
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#396 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Sep 19, 2023 7:06 pm

Beautiful heavy wind-driven rain with some T&L. Pea sized hail for a couple minutes also. Most rain I've seen in months. More please.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#397 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Sep 19, 2023 7:09 pm

More development near the Falls.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#398 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Sep 19, 2023 7:12 pm

gpsnowman wrote:More development near the Falls.


Hi-res models have been all over the place today but the 23z HRRR tries to drive those cells down through DFW
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#399 Postby DallasAg » Tue Sep 19, 2023 7:13 pm

mmmmsnouts wrote:Yet another storm that just barely missed the official DFW site so it doesn't "count."

Almost insulting - DFW records 0.01"

Nice little thunderstorm in North Dallas. 0.23" IMBY so far, and looks like the cell over Carrollton should roll through here anytime now. Not gonna end the drought or close the cracks in the ground, but it's a start.

Hope the real show forming out near Wichita Falls catches those who missed out earlier today. Seems like it should be Collin County's turn eventually, right?
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#400 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Sep 19, 2023 7:15 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:More development near the Falls.


Hi-res models have been all over the place today but the 23z HRRR tries to drive those cells down through DFW

The trajectory looks good if they hold together.
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