Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 90L)

[Teban54]

concerning run for the islands and bahamas if latest gfs is correct. cmc recurves well north and east of islands, lets see what the euro says before sounding the alarms

So if a single run of a single model is further east, it's sufficient to be called a trend; but if a single run of a single model is further west, we have to see what others say before sounding the alarms?

[SFLcane]

concerning run for the islands and bahamas if latest gfs is correct. cmc recurves well north and east of islands, lets see what the euro says before sounding the alarms

So if a single run of a single model is further east, it's sufficient to be called a trend; but if a single run of a single model is further west, we have to see what others say before sounding the alarms?

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think it's a bit early to be getting worked up about a forecast model at 144 hrs out.
I just want 3 more hurricanes (out to sea preferred), and 30 more ACE points and my pre-season forecast will hit the bullseye (and sadly, I am probably under done)

[mantis83]

concerning run for the islands and bahamas if latest gfs is correct. cmc recurves well north and east of islands, lets see what the euro says before sounding the alarms

So if a single run of a single model is further east, it's sufficient to be called a trend; but if a single run of a single model is further west, we have to see what others say before sounding the alarms?

nope...unless it's a married run of a married model.. then yes! j/k seriously tho i just prefer to put more weight towards the euro in most situations It could cave in one run towards the gfs tho, hopefully it stays away from land

[mantis83]

that was one wild gfs run as it rakes the islands, bounces off the florida force field, turns north thru the bahamas then due north until getting tugged back west towards boston all the while growing in size geez...

[wxman57]

Good morning wxman....could you explain why this system developing earlier, would possibly turn Northward,? It's my understanding that the system will be affected by some shear early in its evolution, which may keep it in check for some time? I appreciate it...

A weaker, non-developing tropical wave is steered westward by low-level easterly trades. Once a storm develops, it is steered by winds higher up in the atmosphere, which are generally not the same as the low-level easterly trades. In this case, there is a weakness in the upper-level ridge east of the Caribbean. A stronger storm would "feel" that weakness and turn to the north. A weaker wave would not feel the weakness, and it would be carried westward by the lower level winds.

[cycloneye]

The merge is comming and the cone is more to the west.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is currently located a couple of hundred miles
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected
to merge with another disturbance located a few hundred miles to its
west in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[underthwx]

Good morning wxman....could you explain why this system developing earlier, would possibly turn Northward,? It's my understanding that the system will be affected by some shear early in its evolution, which may keep it in check for some time? I appreciate it...

A weaker, non-developing tropical wave is steered westward by low-level easterly trades. Once a storm develops, it is steered by winds higher up in the atmosphere, which are generally not the same as the low-level easterly trades. In this case, there is a weakness in the upper-level ridge east of the Caribbean. A stronger storm would "feel" that weakness and turn to the north. A weaker wave would not feel the weakness, and it would be carried westward by the lower level winds.

Thanks for the informative reply....it reminds me of Dr. Neil Frank describing stronger systems moving along "rivers of air"...like you refer to....you are in good company Xman...

[Sciencerocks]

[canebeard]

Good morning wxman....could you explain why this system developing earlier, would possibly turn Northward,? It's my understanding that the system will be affected by some shear early in its evolution, which may keep it in check for some time? I appreciate it...

A weaker, non-developing tropical wave is steered westward by low-level easterly trades. Once a storm develops, it is steered by winds higher up in the atmosphere, which are generally not the same as the low-level easterly trades. In this case, there is a weakness in the upper-level ridge east of the Caribbean. A stronger storm would "feel" that weakness and turn to the north. A weaker wave would not feel the weakness, and it would be carried westward by the lower level winds.

Thanks for the informative reply....it reminds me of Dr. Neil Frank describing stronger systems moving along "rivers of air"...like you refer to....you are in good company Xman...

"There is a wolf out there, this time!" Neil Frank

[mantis83]

12z euro remains consistent in showing a weaker system well north and east of the islands....gfs may be on an island too

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

that was one wild gfs run as it rakes the islands, bounces off the florida force field, turns north thru the bahamas then due north until getting tugged back west towards boston all the while growing in size geez...

This would be a retirement candidate.

[canebeard]

Analog. The "Great Hurricane Inez" (quote from NHC advisories while in central Caribbean) 1966, September 21-- Oct 11. Recon got a gust of 197 mph on 9/28/66. 927mb. 165 mph max sustained.

[imgur][/imgur]

[Dynamic]

Good morning wxman....could you explain why this system developing earlier, would possibly turn Northward,? It's my understanding that the system will be affected by some shear early in its evolution, which may keep it in check for some time? I appreciate it...

A weaker, non-developing tropical wave is steered westward by low-level easterly trades. Once a storm develops, it is steered by winds higher up in the atmosphere, which are generally not the same as the low-level easterly trades. In this case, there is a weakness in the upper-level ridge east of the Caribbean. A stronger storm would "feel" that weakness and turn to the north. A weaker wave would not feel the weakness, and it would be carried westward by the lower level winds.

Hi,
With great respect I ask you this question to understand better. Why in this case a stronger system as suggested by GFS moves further west and a weaker one as suggested by Euro recurve before?

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1704595409828520394

[ElectricStorm]

18z GFS similar to 12z through hour 186

[Category5Kaiju]

Latest GFS run looks pretty ugly

[cycloneye]

GFS has been consistent run after run developing this wave.

[mantis83]

wow! the 18z gfs run is even more crazy than the 12z run ...hopefully it won't verify

[ScottNAtlanta]

wow! the 18z gfs run is even more crazy than the 12z run ...hopefully it won't verify

18z GFS goes through PR and Hispaniola turning north through the Bahamas until getting trapped and forced west to the Tidewater area of VA. If the system developing off of FL moves into that area before hand that could cause tremendous flooding if it were to verify.