Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert...Western Pacific

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Typhoon_Willie
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Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert...Western Pacific

#1 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Tue Nov 18, 2003 9:16 pm

New system developing!

WTPN22 PGTW 181730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 181721Z NOV 03//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6N4 159.4E9 TO 9.5N4 165.0E2 WITHIN THE NEXT
06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181200Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 9.3N2 164.1E2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N4 165.3E5 IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 9.3N2 164.1E2, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED OUTFLOW. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 191730Z1.//
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#2 Postby JCT777 » Wed Nov 19, 2003 8:56 am

The western Pacific stays active. Thanks for the update, Willie.
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#3 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Wed Nov 19, 2003 12:02 pm

No problem JCT777!
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#4 Postby Hurricanehink » Wed Nov 19, 2003 5:06 pm

Just to let you know, it is now Tropical Depression 26, and it should strengthen to a major typhoon.
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#5 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Wed Nov 19, 2003 5:14 pm

Wow lets keep up with this!
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