ATL: OPHELIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop supports 984mb. About the same as last mission but western side is much weaker

[Steve]

Eye drop supports 984mb. About the same as last mission but western side is much weaker

Credit where due for 984.

[Sciencerocks]

[Landy]

Latest sonde supports pressure in the 979-980mb range. Still 60kt support with FL reductions. SFMR broken this mission.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Ophelia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
620 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...OPHELIA MAKES LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA...

Doppler Radar images, Air Force Hurricane Hunter data and surface
observations indicate that Ophelia made landfall near Emerald Isle
in North Carolina around 615 am EDT (1015 UTC) with estimated
maximum winds of 70 mph (110 km/h).

An observation in Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently reported
sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 73 mph (117
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 77.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi/Papin/Delgado

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

Looks like it will landfall near the lightly populated national forest location.
Myrtle beach will get the tropical storm winds.
The thing that bothered me during hurricane Irma was the freight train sound the 10 second wind gusts made over the roof that came with the squalls. Ophelia isn't a well organized hurricane like that though.
I was able to repair triple tab shingle glue strips that came unglued with a couple tubes of Henkel PLS30. Don't expect the Insurance companies to cover a claim for a new roof from a tropical storm.

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[syfr]

It's rapidly losing it's moisture supply ^^^^^^^^^^^

(also it's heat supply. It's quite cool here in NC today)

[TallyTracker]

saved radar loop
https://i.imgur.com/yOwt1Sc.gif

That does look like a tropical radar signature. The satellite view looks far less tropical.

[JRD]

The warm front is still very close to the center, which raises the possibility of extratropical transition as it continues inland, which is supported by current phase diagrams.

[Teban54]

IMO, Ophelia peaked briefly as a minimum Cat 1 hurricane between the two recon missions. It was clearly weakening before the second recon.

[cycloneye]

IMO, Ophelia peaked briefly as a minimum Cat 1 hurricane between the two recon missions. It was clearly weakening before the second recon.

They will review all at TCR.

[Steve]

It's rapidly losing it's moisture supply ^^^^^^^^^^^

(also it's heat supply. It's quite cool here in NC today)

I didn’t look at the cape, but I think it’s got enough infeed moisture from the Atlantic to keep the majority of the circulation wet. Also since it’s pretty slow moving, there’s training around the circulation but particularly the west and southern sides. There are a lot of flash flood warnings.

https://radar.weather.gov/station/KMHX/standard

https://radar.weather.gov/station/KRAX/standard

[syfr]

Yes, we have the flood watches/warnings here (I'm about due west of Greenville about 60 miles or so) but rain is just steady with some stronger bands. Even those are not as heavy as thunderstorm downpours. We've probably gotten 3" of rain or so since last night. We're through the heaviest rain it looks like.

The eastern part of NC (say from Johnston county east to the coast) is virtually flat for 120 miles, so water tends to pile up more in that direction.

We've had a few gusts that are probably in the 35-40 mph range but it's all good as long as the power stays on and the trees stay vertical.

[Sciencerocks]

[AnnularCane]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/7101/G4xmxA.gif

Watching the day pass.

[Sciencerocks]

[hipshot]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/1918/KjxpWy.gif

Still looks like it has a punch even that far inland.