2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[ThunderForce]

Is there any particular reason the Euro ensembles show little to nothing in that area?

[AutoPenalti]

Is there any particular reason the Euro ensembles show little to nothing in that area?

Could be a fantasy cane.

[Ianswfl]

Is there any particular reason the Euro ensembles show little to nothing in that area?

Could be a fantasy cane.

Seems we've had this with other storms lately. Either the euro or GFS doesn't show it. I like to use ensembles to see a pattern. When it's multiple runs of the GFS ensembles showing it it perks me up a bit. This run the operational GFS finally shows a weak TD so it might be trending towards the ensembles.

There will be a lot of moisutre in the western ATL next week. A wet and humid pattern returns here to SWFL too.

[ThunderForce]

Is there any particular reason the Euro ensembles show little to nothing in that area?

Could be a fantasy cane.

Seems we've had this with other storms lately. Either the euro or GFS doesn't show it. I like to use ensembles to see a pattern. When it's multiple runs of the GFS ensembles showing it it perks me up a bit. This run the operational GFS finally shows a weak TD so it might be trending towards the ensembles.

There will be a lot of moisutre in the western ATL next week. A wet and humid pattern returns here to SWFL too.

Personally I'd be happy with no more landfalls anywhere for the rest of the season, so I'm hoping the current Euro ensembles and model are right this time around.

[toad strangler]

!8z gfs stronger. Now shows a weak sheared TD forming late next week. Then at end of the run develops a tropical storm down there as well.

The 18z gefs is running. Ensembles much more active 18z so far for the first possible system and stronger too. One of the members takes a cat3 right into Tampa Bay slowly like Ian only further north. With the 18z showing a brief sheared TD finally it seems the operational gradually caving to the ensembles.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023092318/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_38.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023092318/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_31.png

I’m always watching until the end of October but those signals from the GFS are weak sauce IMO.

It will be getting late very quickly soon for the CONUS.

[SFLcane]

!8z gfs stronger. Now shows a weak sheared TD forming late next week. Then at end of the run develops a tropical storm down there as well.

The 18z gefs is running. Ensembles much more active 18z so far for the first possible system and stronger too. One of the members takes a cat3 right into Tampa Bay slowly like Ian only further north. With the 18z showing a brief sheared TD finally it seems the operational gradually caving to the ensembles.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023092318/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_38.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023092318/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_31.png

I’m always watching until the end of October but those signals from the GFS are weak sauce IMO.

It will be getting late very quickly soon for the CONUS.

More hurricanes showering up on the 18z gefs .Surely something to watch for now waters are extra warm.

[CFLHurricane]

!8z gfs stronger. Now shows a weak sheared TD forming late next week. Then at end of the run develops a tropical storm down there as well.

The 18z gefs is running. Ensembles much more active 18z so far for the first possible system and stronger too. One of the members takes a cat3 right into Tampa Bay slowly like Ian only further north. With the 18z showing a brief sheared TD finally it seems the operational gradually caving to the ensembles.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023092318/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_38.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023092318/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_31.png

I’m always watching until the end of October but those signals from the GFS are weak sauce IMO.

It will be getting late very quickly soon for the CONUS.

More hurricanes showering up on the 18z gefs .Surely something to watch for now waters are extra warm.

https://i.postimg.cc/3R1SL9Vs/IMG-7641.jpg

I’m not convinced with the models vacillating between feast and famine so close to October. We’ve got about two weeks left for the models to show a consistent signal on something before I’m going into off-season mode here on the Space Coast.

[floridasun]

No hurr on Oct 1 wife birthday weekend

[LarryWx]

!8z gfs stronger. Now shows a weak sheared TD forming late next week. Then at end of the run develops a tropical storm down there as well.

The 18z gefs is running. Ensembles much more active 18z so far for the first possible system and stronger too. One of the members takes a cat3 right into Tampa Bay slowly like Ian only further north. With the 18z showing a brief sheared TD finally it seems the operational gradually caving to the ensembles.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023092318/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_38.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023092318/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_31.png

Just like the 12Z, this run has 5 moderate TS to H members out of 31.
This bears watching.

[Ianswfl]

!8z gfs stronger. Now shows a weak sheared TD forming late next week. Then at end of the run develops a tropical storm down there as well.

The 18z gefs is running. Ensembles much more active 18z so far for the first possible system and stronger too. One of the members takes a cat3 right into Tampa Bay slowly like Ian only further north. With the 18z showing a brief sheared TD finally it seems the operational gradually caving to the ensembles.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023092318/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_38.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023092318/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_31.png

Just like the 12Z, this run has 5 moderate TS to H members out of 31.
This bears watching.

The operation at the very end also forms another TS down there. The ensembles at the end of the run kinda hints too at something that might form down there.

I wonder if oct will crank out CAGS like what's going on in the east atl right now! Well, not that many that's not possible.

[blp]

Well the Euro has something different with Phillepe and the storm behind.

[Jr0d]

Anyone else see the spin in the thunderstorms in the Gulf just west of Florida?

No real model support, however some of the mesoscale show a weak low forming, apparently there is already a broad area of low(er) pressure.

While chances are low of development, I would have say to say there's a chance.

[gatorcane]

The Gulf continues to be unfavorable due to strong wind shear and the Western Caribbean doesn’t look favorable either, according to the GFS. El Niño continues to exert its influence across the Western portions of the basin and could continue to do so into October limiting any significant development. Can’t rule out something trying to get going but there should be shear there and tracks east of Florida through Cuba would be favored with the pattern.

[WalterWhite]

The Gulf continues to be unfavorable due to strong wind shear and the Western Caribbean doesn’t look favorable either, according to the GFS. El Niño continues to exert its influence across the Western portions of the basin and could continue to do so into October limiting any significant development.

https://i.postimg.cc/HsMnSCSz/gfs-ashear-Mean-watl-fh120-384.gif

Shear forecasts are not very reliable.

[CourierPR]

The Gulf continues to be unfavorable due to strong wind shear and the Western Caribbean doesn’t look favorable either, according to the GFS. El Niño continues to exert its influence across the Western portions of the basin and could continue to do so into October limiting any significant development. Can’t rule out something trying to get going but there should be shear there and tracks east of Florida through Cuba would be favored with the pattern.

https://i.postimg.cc/HsMnSCSz/gfs-ashear-Mean-watl-fh120-384.gif

Bastardi is looking for Gulf development later this week. I'll go with his well-educated opinion.

[Ianswfl]

The Gulf continues to be unfavorable due to strong wind shear and the Western Caribbean doesn’t look favorable either, according to the GFS. El Niño continues to exert its influence across the Western portions of the basin and could continue to do so into October limiting any significant development. Can’t rule out something trying to get going but there should be shear there and tracks east of Florida through Cuba would be favored with the pattern.

https://i.postimg.cc/HsMnSCSz/gfs-ashear-Mean-watl-fh120-384.gif

Bastardi is looking for Gulf development later this week. I'll go with his well-educated opinion.

Ensembles still as of 06z show a hurricane hit swfl either sept 30th or next sunday. One member 971 mb, strong cat2 and another member strong cat1

[ThunderForce]

At this point either the Euro or the GFS is going to end up having to cave to the other eventually, especially since it's not that far out. Both models' ensembles seem pretty different not even 120 hours out.

[SFLcane]

Looks like an epac storm incoming potentially GEFS backed away from the Caribbean.

[Ianswfl]

Looks like an epac storm incoming potentially GEFS backed away from the Caribbean.

So we know something might be down there. Question is where.

[Category5Kaiju]

Most recent CMC run seems to suggest two more storms forming (including the 10/40 AOI (91L) and another one right off the Eastern Seaboard) in the coming week or so.