https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1705704292152127489
ATL: PHILIPPE - Post Tropical/Extratropical - Discussion
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Best Track:
Lost a bit of latitude:
AL, 17, 2023092400, , BEST, 0, 153N, 403W, 35, 1005, TS
Lost a bit of latitude:
Last edited by abajan on Sat Sep 23, 2023 8:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
abajan wrote:Best Track:AL, 17, 2023092400, , BEST, 0, 153N, 403W, 35, 1005, TS
Lost a bit of latitude.
Indeed.
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Sciencerocks
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I can't tell if the center is completly or semi exposed by looking at the first visible frames.
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WalterWhite
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WeatherBoy2000
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
WalterWhite wrote:Why is Philippe struggling?
Wind shear, it could be doing worse though:
https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1705920945423097857
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Dvorak is up to 3.0.
A. 17L (PHILIPPE)
B. 24/1200Z
C. 16.3N
D. 40.5W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T3.0/3.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 2.5 AND THE
PT IS 3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...BROWN
A. 17L (PHILIPPE)
B. 24/1200Z
C. 16.3N
D. 40.5W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T3.0/3.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 2.5 AND THE
PT IS 3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...BROWN
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
0z Best Track:
AL, 17, 2023092412, , BEST, 0, 160N, 412W, 45, 1000, TS
Last edited by abajan on Sun Sep 24, 2023 8:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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jconsor
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Last edited by jconsor on Sun Sep 24, 2023 8:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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WalterWhite
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
abajan wrote:0z Best Track:AL, 17, 2023092412, , BEST, 0, 160N, 412W, 45, 1000, TS
https://images2.imgbox.com/c7/54/LZINLBS4_o.png
Intensification is happening more quickly than the NHC is forecasting.
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ThunderForce
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Although there's quite a bit of shear it seems like this storm is doing a bit better than expected.
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Please refer to the NWS, NHC, SPC or a professional meteorologist for information and decision making during storms.
Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Center is reforming under convection per the ASCAT
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Sciencerocks
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Hurricane2022
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
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WalterWhite
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
abajan wrote:0z Best Track:AL, 17, 2023092412, , BEST, 0, 160N, 412W, 45, 1000, TS
https://images2.imgbox.com/c7/54/LZINLBS4_o.png
It is gaining a bit of latitude. It is definitely strengthening.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AL, 17, 2023092418, , BEST, 0, 166N, 420W, 45, 1000, TS
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Sciencerocks
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NHC is having a difficult time with the future forecast.
Afterwards, models are in quite
poor agreement on if the shear continues to rise to strong levels,
which causes dissipation like the ECMWF, or if it becomes more
manageable to allow for further intensification, similar to the
GFS's hurricane forecast at day 5. There are no obvious clues to
the correct solution, and this is probably a very difficult forecast
due to the feedback of Philippe's track affecting intensity, in
addition to the inherent challenges of moderate shear cases
poor agreement on if the shear continues to rise to strong levels,
which causes dissipation like the ECMWF, or if it becomes more
manageable to allow for further intensification, similar to the
GFS's hurricane forecast at day 5. There are no obvious clues to
the correct solution, and this is probably a very difficult forecast
due to the feedback of Philippe's track affecting intensity, in
addition to the inherent challenges of moderate shear cases
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