Texas Fall 2023

[tajmahal]

At Austin Camp Mabry today:
103°–78° (average of 89.5°).
The high and average broke the daily records.

Today tied for the 12th hottest September day on record (by average temperature). The high tied for the 21st hottest September temperature on record.

Today tied for the second–warmest day on record for so late in the season, behind only September 26, 2005.

[rwfromkansas]

Got up to 103 IMBY. Yuck.

Got multiple boundaries moving different directions just west of me. Hope that erupts something before they go too far east. I likely won't see anything since I am too far west, but here's hoping..

[Iceresistance]

Got up to 103 IMBY. Yuck.

Got multiple boundaries moving different directions just west of me. Hope that erupts something before they go too far east. I likely won't see anything since I am too far west, but here's hoping..

One just exploded in western Fort Worth

[rwfromkansas]

That really did erupt quickly. One frame showed nothing, then boom it was there. It's south of me, but hope more will get rain than feared.

[bubba hotep]

Large watch out. Pretty clear surface convergence boundary just west of Tarrant & Denton County lines. One cell has already fired off of that just West of Ft. Worth.

[CaptinCrunch]

Not a drop in northern FTW or southern Tarrant. Mid cities got a good down pour

[cstrunk]

Getting more interesting now, including a tornado warned storm near Commerce, TX.

[bubba hotep]

Getting more interesting now, including a tornado warned storm near Commerce, TX.

Excellent split on that cell.

[bubba hotep]

Mostly a miss for DFW, with the exception of a couple of smaller cells moving through the mid-cities. I think this is the 3rd event in a row that FWD went 70-80% coverage DFW wide a couple of days before the event to basically have everyone skunked. I think I would take a much more conservative approach for the next event

[CaptinCrunch]

Mostly a miss for DFW, with the exception of a couple of smaller cells moving through the mid-cities. I think this is the 3rd event in a row that FWD went 70-80% coverage DFW wide a couple of days before the event to basically have everyone skunked. I think I would take a much more conservative approach for the next event

I'll second that...

[mmmmsnouts]

Mostly a miss for DFW, with the exception of a couple of smaller cells moving through the mid-cities. I think this is the 3rd event in a row that FWD went 70-80% coverage DFW wide a couple of days before the event to basically have everyone skunked. I think I would take a much more conservative approach for the next event

They must just be forecasting whatever the models tell them. It goes back to a comment I made earlier in the thread, precip forecasts are a real blind spot for FWD.

Sub-severe cells keep popping up over Arlington, although we got some small hail for a few minutes and plenty of lightning. No idea how much rain, there are too many trees to get a good measurement.

[bubba hotep]

I should add that operational forecasting is very hard. Then add in the shift work component, and it can be a thankless job. My post earlier was more observational vs a critique of FWD. IIRC, FWD used to be much more conservative, and if they went high pops then you could take it to the bank.

[rwfromkansas]

The middle region got a couple storms at least, but north and part of south still missed out.

Shift work is honestly one of the worst parts of working at the NWS probably; rotating shifts are bad for your health.

[Texoz]

Storms escalated quickly near Round Rock and have hammered some areas with large hail along IH-35 down to Austin. Storms still firing off in east Austin to the airport. There's going to be some significant hail damage around here. I've already seen a twitter post of Round Rock Kia dealership that shows dozens of cars with windows blown out.

[dpep4]

Not sure about calling a DFW bust in the second inning, since then intermittent cells have continued to pop up and reform all evening. Individual tracks southeast then reforming slightly east, slowly filling in gaps like a Roomba would vacuum. N.FW to Arlington to Waxahachie, then mid-cities to southern Dallas, Coppell to mid-Dallas, and now Lewisville/The Colony towards Garland, after McKinney to southeast got theirs earlier. Starting to stretch west to southwest of Denton.

And now stuff has blown up along the Red River, is that the second front?

[mmmmsnouts]

I should add that operational forecasting is very hard. Then add in the shift work component, and it can be a thankless job. My post earlier was more observational vs a critique of FWD. IIRC, FWD used to be much more conservative, and if they went high pops then you could take it to the bank.

I should say they do very well on temperature and large scale weather events (severe episodes, fronts, winter weather). During summer when the rain is disorganized and all kinds of subtleties are in play to decide where and when it might rain, that's when it's really tough.

[utpmg]

Got hammered by these earlier here in East Austin:
[imgur]https://imgur.com/a/acypUvj[/imgur]

*EDIT* I fixed these in a subsequent post.

[rwfromkansas]

Over 5 inches near Kemp. They seem to cash in a lot there, wow.

[utpmg]

Got hammered by these earlier here in East Austin:
https://imgur.com/a/acypUvj

Lost power right as i posted those, and internet out until this morning. GOt large hail, around 2.75".

[cstrunk]

So close yet so far from a decent rainfall. Lots of places cashed in though. I ended up with 0.14". Warm, dry weather returns this week.