ATL: RINA - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2023092412, , BEST, 0, 90N, 250W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 60, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034, SPAWNINVEST, al782023 to al912023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912023.dat

Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 2#p3049222

[kevin]

Another one, 2023 is the endless Cape Verde season... 00z Euro has a high-end TS or cat 1 at the end of its run.

[cycloneye]

Is a small system.

[Hurricane2022]

Any chance of this becoming a Cat2+ hurricane?

[SconnieCane]

Fish (relatively speaking, Lee did have some land impacts) parade continues; ironically this El Nino season may end up quite similar to 2010, a strong La Nina, with numerous MDR TCs but they all recurve.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
A small area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form around mid-week while the system moves
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[galaxy401]

Models seem more enthusiastic for this system but if Philippe gets stronger then expected, this system will have a tougher time.

[cycloneye]

Keeps moving SW at 250 degrees.

AL, 91, 2023092418, , BEST, 0, 87N, 265W, 20, 1010, DB

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

Fish (relatively speaking, Lee did have some land impacts) parade continues; ironically this El Nino season may end up quite similar to 2010, a strong La Nina, with numerous MDR TCs but they all recurve.

Except for the Bermuda forecast its pretty good news.
Getting close to the Texas end of season with no major impacts this year.
Florida historically has some bad storms in October but they are pretty rare.

[cycloneye]

Code Red 70%

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is now likely to form around mid-week as the
system moves west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

This should become at least a TS, but I think it could be dealing with shear from Phillippe so I'm not super bullish on it for now

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2023092500, , BEST, 0, 90N, 280W, 20, 1010, DB

[cycloneye]

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

2 AM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a broad area of showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form around mid-week as the system moves
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[abajan]

8 AM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next few days as the system moves
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Is getting sheared from outflow of Philippe.

AL, 91, 2023092512, , BEST, 0, 102N, 307W, 20, 1010, DB

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next few days as the system moves
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Sciencerocks]