Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

Still looks like some (slightly) below normal temps starting Saturday across much of Florida with the Euro showing these temps lasting through day 10.

[gatorcane]

On this first day of fall, we see widespread dew points in to the 50s and 60s across north and central Florida this morning, very pleasant across a lot of Florida indeed. South Florida still holding onto dew points in the low 70s but even here you can “feel” the seasons are changing. After a hot (and rainy) summer for South Florida, the start of fall is certainly welcome and those lower dew points are not too far off now.

[gatorcane]

The GFS long-range is developing another deep area of low pressure off the SE US which looks to usher in very low dew points for early October across Florida. Still long-range but looks interesting and would be very welcome:

[TheHurricaneGod]

we have all these cumulus clouds yet cant get a single storm to form from them despite the incredibly juiced up atmosphere. the reality of an easterly flow. All the storms just go in the interior. but at least it stormed at 1 AM this morning.

[jlauderdal]

we have all these cumulus clouds yet cant get a single storm to form from them despite the incredibly juiced up atmosphere. the reality of an easterly flow. All the storms just go in the interior. but at least it stormed at 1 AM this morning.

We have had plenty of rain on the se coast, an mcs went through after midnight

[TheHurricaneGod]

we have all these cumulus clouds yet cant get a single storm to form from them despite the incredibly juiced up atmosphere. the reality of an easterly flow. All the storms just go in the interior. but at least it stormed at 1 AM this morning.

We have had plenty of rain on the se coast, an mcs went through after midnight

I guess since I've only just been here for a few days after spending summer in delaware

[chaser1]

Here in Central Florida, i'm pretty sure we have something like a 185 % chance of rain for yesterday, today, tomorrow, and rest of the week . At least for me this is looking like the 2nd straight day of a busted forecast. C'mon Fall, if I still must be subject to mid 70's dew points then at least give me the pleasure of watching that moisture fall from the sky.

[MetroMike]

Here in Central Florida, i'm pretty sure we have something like a 185 % chance of rain for yesterday, today, tomorrow, and rest of the week . At least for me this is looking like the 2nd straight day of a busted forecast. C'mon Fall, if I still must be subject to mid 70's dew points then at least give me the pleasure of watching that moisture fall from the sky.

Exactly, for some reason I doubted this weeks (abundant) rainfall forecast. Just been the ongoing pattern and storms to the south of the bay area just dry up on their way north so far.
At this point a tropical system is the only way to get a descent rainfall here.

[chaser1]

Here in Central Florida, i'm pretty sure we have something like a 185 % chance of rain for yesterday, today, tomorrow, and rest of the week . At least for me this is looking like the 2nd straight day of a busted forecast. C'mon Fall, if I still must be subject to mid 70's dew points then at least give me the pleasure of watching that moisture fall from the sky.

Exactly, for some reason I doubted this weeks (abundant) rainfall forecast. Just been the ongoing pattern and storms to the south of the bay area just dry up on their way north so far.
At this point a tropical system is the only way to get a descent rainfall here.

I really shouldnt complain because overall we really have gotten some healthy rains and nice convective storms for much of the Summer. On the other hand, you guys over on the W. Coast have really been sucking cactus lol. About how many inches of precip below normal are you sitting at? I would think easily between 4"-6" or more for the year?

[tropicwatch]

There has been a little low pressure area southwest of Panama City sitting there all day. There is some 850mb vorticity associated with it.

[MetroMike]

Here in Central Florida, i'm pretty sure we have something like a 185 % chance of rain for yesterday, today, tomorrow, and rest of the week . At least for me this is looking like the 2nd straight day of a busted forecast. C'mon Fall, if I still must be subject to mid 70's dew points then at least give me the pleasure of watching that moisture fall from the sky.

Exactly, for some reason I doubted this weeks (abundant) rainfall forecast. Just been the ongoing pattern and storms to the south of the bay area just dry up on their way north so far.
At this point a tropical system is the only way to get a descent rainfall here.

I really shouldnt complain because overall we really have gotten some healthy rains and nice convective storms for much of the Summer. On the other hand, you guys over on the W. Coast have really been sucking cactus lol. About how many inches of precip below normal are you sitting at? I would think easily between 4"-6" or more for the year?

We are at a deficit of 15 inches now at Tampa for the year. It's amazing how a general west wind all Summer can greatly affect the rainy season.

[chaser1]

Exactly, for some reason I doubted this weeks (abundant) rainfall forecast. Just been the ongoing pattern and storms to the south of the bay area just dry up on their way north so far.
At this point a tropical system is the only way to get a descent rainfall here.

I really shouldnt complain because overall we really have gotten some healthy rains and nice convective storms for much of the Summer. On the other hand, you guys over on the W. Coast have really been sucking cactus lol. About how many inches of precip below normal are you sitting at? I would think easily between 4"-6" or more for the year?

We are at a deficit of 15 inches now at Tampa for the year. It's amazing how a general west wind all Summer can greatly affect the rainy season.

Damn! That's a ton!!! You're right, it IS incredible what difference occurs simply as a result of the prevailing winds being different. That has got to be an affect primarily impacting an immediate marine environment far more then an inland location

[chaser1]

Here in Central Florida, i'm pretty sure we have something like a 185 % chance of rain for yesterday, today, tomorrow, and rest of the week . At least for me this is looking like the 2nd straight day of a busted forecast. C'mon Fall, if I still must be subject to mid 70's dew points then at least give me the pleasure of watching that moisture fall from the sky.

As I sit here listening to our resident owl above the pitter-patter of light falling rain, reflecting on the brief tornado warning from a couple hours ago along with my earlier thoughts ragarding today's busted weather forecast...I take solice in the knowledge that despite the darkness in my home & neighborhood from a failed transformer minutes ago - my untapped bounty of 2023 hurricane supplies contains an adequate supply of Merlot and Pino Noir.

I wonder what tomorrow's weather will bring.

[psyclone]

Well I got 3-5" of nothing this week! It's comedic how bad it's been. And I'm gonna cast well deserved stones at nws Ruskin for constantly overestimating our rain odds the entire summer. In all my decades here I have never seen such an atrocious track record. To be fair, they must be as baffled as the rest of us. Nevertheless the accuracy has been shockingly bad. Those forecasts of a wet Nino winter better come true as the rainy season was a total bust here.

[gatorcane]

On the flip side, this has been the rainiest summer in South Florida that I can remember. It rains every day and multiple times a day not to mention the humidity has been very high - A tale of two cities it appears while portions of the west coast has seen one of the driest summers on record. I do think the El Niño winter will bring in wet fronts through the peninsula so just a bit longer and we should see the parade of fronts and an active subtropical jet. In fact the first real front could be swinging through Florida in about 8-9 days from now if the models are correct with a good chance of rain as the front passes through then ushering in a noticeably “cooler” and drier air mass.

[canes92]

Sure has been rainy but looks like it might be coming to an end in my area. Will likely be sunny to partly cloudy with no rain and upper 80s all next week.

[HurricaneBelle]

Well I got 3-5" of nothing this week! It's comedic how bad it's been. And I'm gonna cast well deserved stones at nws Ruskin for constantly overestimating our rain odds the entire summer. In all my decades here I have never seen such an atrocious track record. To be fair, they must be as baffled as the rest of us. Nevertheless the accuracy has been shockingly bad. Those forecasts of a wet Nino winter better come true as the rainy season was a total bust here.

Yes, definitely feeling like Charlie Brown with Lucy and the football these days in Pinellas County. Hillsborough has gotten a fair amount of rain this week and as I type there's a heavy shower/storm a mile to my east in Oldsmar but Pinellas - especially the north half of Pinellas - has been the donut hole on radar more times than I can count.

NWS forecast says 70% chance of rain tomorrow - feeling lucky?

[gatorcane]

After many months of hot and humid conditions, here comes that front next weekend according to the GFS. Also this week should feature lower due points and a nice breeze to windy conditions across the peninsula which will feel nice:

[TheHurricaneGod]

Another day another toad strangler.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Here in Cape Canaveral, we got an absolutely insane amount of rain yesterday. Lots of flooding.