LarryWx wrote:AJC3 wrote:Any lowering of pressure near Florida beyond day 5 isn't tropical at all. If it were to occur, it would be along a stalled weak inverted surface trough, beneath a mid to upper level trough, in an area of strong baroclinic forcing (i.e. upper divergence). #ContextIsImportant here.
I see that there is some suggestion by the ensembles that there may be a sfc low located near FL or off the SE coast beneath a pretty strong NE US around mid next week. Is that what you’re referring to?
I'm referring to surface low development near Florida beginning early next week (SUN-MON). Based off the 26/00Z runs, this would start to occur either on the Gulf side (00Z GFS) or near the Bahamas (00Z ECM). The ECM and GFS have been pretty inconsistent in their solutions, both surface an aloft, over the past 24 hours.
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
447 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023
<snip>
Next Weekend...An amplifying mid level ridge over the central CONUS will cause surface high pressure to build/strengthen over the eastern half of the CONUS, producing freshening onshore flow across FL. Just how unsettled the wx will continue to be locally depends on the position of the H50 trough/low SE of the ridge.A solution closer to the ECM (closed low over central FL) portends continued high rain chances (mostly showers) through the weekend, while the GFS`s sheared out trough axis over SOFL would trend us drier for Sun. For now, the forecast keeps of likely POPs through the weekend, however this is pretty low confidence.
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
446 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023
<snip>
Saturday-Monday...Models show amplification of the NOAM pattern aloft into a positive-tilt omega block, featuring a western CONUS trough, central CONUS ridge and a trough extending from the GOMEX across FL and along/offshore the SE Seaboard. While the ECM/GFS switched solutions regarding the evolution of the trough composing the SE part of the block (ECM more progressive/GFS with a cutoff) both show the unsettled pattern continuing through this weekend, then possibly trending drier next week as onshore winds freshen between high pressure to the north and a possible surface low centered either near the Bahamas (ECM) or GOMEX (GFS).