ATL: RINA - Models

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kevin
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ATL: RINA - Models

#1 Postby kevin » Sun Sep 24, 2023 9:10 am

Weak in the short term, but everything is still possible later on. Solutions range from a TD/TS to a MH.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 24, 2023 9:13 am

Hi kevin. Made the 91L models thread from you post at main discussion thread.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 24, 2023 11:52 am

12z UKMET briefly has it in this run.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.9N 25.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2023 0 8.9N 25.8W 1012 18
0000UTC 25.09.2023 12 CEASED TRACKING
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 24, 2023 1:31 pm

Two runs in a row that ECMWF develops 91L.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#5 Postby blp » Sun Sep 24, 2023 1:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:Two runs in a row that ECMWF develops 91L.

https://i.imgur.com/JHPS4Ls.gif


Yep and picking up pattern change with stronger High.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 24, 2023 1:58 pm

And again, the NE Caribbean islands are safe.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 24, 2023 7:28 pm

The question is which model between the best ones GFS and ECMWF will be right with the development of 91L. The eternal battle between those two models rages on.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#8 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 24, 2023 9:09 pm

18z hurricane model runs:
  • HMON: 990.3 mb, 69.7 kt @ 105 hrs
  • Both HAFS-A and HAFS-B parent have 91L developing, but lost track of it during their 91L runs. HAFS-A peaks at 998 mb, HAFS-B around 987 mb.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 25, 2023 12:00 pm

This 12z run from GFS is the first one that develops 91L into a strong TS to Hurricane. ECMWF again confirms it's king status. :D

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#10 Postby mantis83 » Mon Sep 25, 2023 1:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:This 12z run from GFS is the first one that develops 91L into a strong TS to Hurricane. ECMWF again confirms it's king status. :D

https://i.imgur.com/nP7dade.gif

yep yep :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#11 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 25, 2023 1:53 pm

12z Euro has a recurving major. It does get a little further west, though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 25, 2023 1:58 pm

The 4th major of 2023 if this occurs.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#13 Postby Teban54 » Tue Sep 26, 2023 10:11 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#14 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 26, 2023 1:11 pm

The HAFS models strongly disagree on 91L/Rina. HAFS-A gets this to Cat 2 intensity by the end of the run, but the HAFS-B keeps it as a sheared TS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#15 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 26, 2023 2:04 pm

Folks in Bermuda may have to watch it.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#16 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Sep 27, 2023 6:34 am

Now it seems the GFS still wants to turn this north and develop it, but I see no signs of that happening while the ECMWF wants to bring it slightly north and stall it out just east of the islands but really doesn't do anything with it until it takes it out at the end of the run. Extremely different solutions. The GFS threatens the Azores at the end of the run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 27, 2023 11:10 am

What is this? WOW. 91L is gone and Philippe dominates.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#18 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Sep 27, 2023 9:34 pm

Latest GFS is going al Fujiwara on this having 91L making a counter clockwise circle around Philippe and not developing it at all...very strange
(and last run it was Philippe doing the circling)
I even went back and looked to make sure I was seeing it correctly
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Re: ATL: RINA- Models

#19 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Sep 28, 2023 11:08 am

How does a model model the Fujiwara Dance???

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Re: ATL: RINA - Models

#20 Postby floridasun » Thu Sep 28, 2023 2:11 pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/18L_geps_latest.png
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