ATL: RINA - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2023092700, , BEST, 0, 112N, 406W, 30, 1008, LO

[ScottNAtlanta]

Most of the models had this turning NW by now. I don't see any evidence it's getting ready to make a turn more northerly. It's moving west at a pretty good clip. Looks like a center is trying to form at about 11N 43W. Both the GFS and ECMWF have this gaining some serious latitude in the next 12 hours

[abajan]

AL, 91, 2023092700, , BEST, 0, 112N, 406W, 30, 1008, LO

[blueskies]

Models were forecasting Philippe to be a long-lasting and intense hurricane. Well, that didn't happen. Will this one have the same fate? There just isn't any high pressure to its north to move it west through the Caribbean. Season appears to be winding down. Still have to watch the NW Caribbean for any late-season Florida mischief.

Late season mischief ?

[Sciencerocks]

[abajan]

Best Track:

AL, 91, 2023092706, , BEST, 0, 112N, 420W, 30, 1007, LO

Still moving west.

[abajan]

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with an area of low pressure located roughly halfway
between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form
in the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[abajan]

Best Track:

AL, 91, 2023092712, , BEST, 0, 116N, 435W, 30, 1007, LO

[Sciencerocks]

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is probably some interaction between 91L and Philippe. I think that models assumed a north moving Philippe would pull this with it. I think right now it is just to close to Philippe to develop and will probably follow it west

[WiscoWx02]

This sort of reminds me of 09L and Ida back in 2015. They were pretty close together for most of their life and shear shredded both of them so they never really had much of a future past being designated as a TD or TS. What I think may happen here as well.

[MarioProtVI]

This sort of reminds me of 09L and Ida back in 2015. They were pretty close together for most of their life and shear shredded both of them so they never really had much of a future past being designated as a TD or TS. What I think may happen here as well.

Except Philippe might have a shot at hurricane intensity if it interacts more with 91L and gets pulled more south towards the favorable environment.

[abajan]

2PM:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized
in association with an area of low pressure located roughly halfway
between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form
in the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[WalterWhite]

Is it even still a certainty at this point that 91L becomes Rina?

[Sciencerocks]

[StormSkeptic]

Is it even still a certainty at this point that 91L becomes Rina?

Think a fair question. The models want to develop it, at least someswhat, but not impressed with how it looks at the moment. Also, think it depends on whether Philippe really fades away.

[cycloneye]

8 PM.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated
with an area of low pressure located roughly halfway between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for development, as long as this system
remains far enough removed from Tropical Storm Philippe to its west.
A tropical depression or storm is expected to form in the next day
or so while the system moves northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Looks better tonight. As long it not gets close to Philippe, it has a good chance to develop.

[cycloneye]

First dvorak update.

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91L)

B. 28/0000Z

C. 14.1N

D. 44.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. 2118Z SSMIS PASS SHOWED
A DEFINED LLCC. ROBUST OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND NE-E-SE QUADS. SYSTEM APPEARS
TO BE REMAINING DISCRETE FM 17L. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON