ATL: PHILIPPE - Post Tropical/Extratropical - Discussion

[underthwx]

Monday vs today... That's a huge official track swing in just 48 hours of likes I've hardly ever seen before. Suddenly Phillipe feels like a sleeper.

Monday:
https://i.imgur.com/6hEnO6c.png

This morning:
https://i.imgur.com/jospJEj.png

True that on its track, quite a difference, I had no idea until I just looked at 2K, what a difference a day can make....it appears as if Puerto Rico will see direct impacts?

[underthwx]

This is a part of the 515 am San Juan PR forecast discussion....."LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday

Philippe`s final future will influence this weekend`s weather
forecast; therefore, significant uncertainty is present. While
writing this discussion, Philippe had been weakening and will
weaken further. Based on the latest NHC forecast, Philippe will
weaken into a surface low pressure by the weekend. That said,
model guidance suggests that we may observe inclement weather as
early as Saturday due to the moisture field associated with
Philippe`s remnant surface low pressure. The unstable weather
pattern could last into early next week as the lingering moisture
of the remnants could remain over the region of Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands."

Winds will veer from the north on Saturday to the east-southeast
on Sunday, becoming southerly Tuesday into the middle of next
week.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1707060974228832754

[MarioProtVI]

Remember when models were showing a major before it formed?

INIT 26/0300Z 17.6N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 18.0N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 18.8N 51.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 19.8N 53.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 20.8N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 21.5N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 22.0N 57.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 22.0N 59.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 22.0N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Literally just Peter 2.0.

This might age bad if Philippe ends up the dominant force of the interaction with 91L/future Rina (which models seem to generally be alluding to). So it may end up being Iris 1995 2.0 (also had an uncertain forecast bc of an interaction with Humberto at a similar place).

[Teban54]

I must say I didn't expect to see Philippe looking better than 91L today. While I'm not counting on it yet, it won't surprise me to see Philippe becoming the dominant one if such trends continue.

[msbee]

Monday vs today... That's a huge official track swing in just 48 hours of likes I've hardly ever seen before. Suddenly Phillipe feels like a sleeper.

Monday:
https://i.imgur.com/6hEnO6c.png

This morning:
https://i.imgur.com/jospJEj.png

Guess I need to start paying closer attention.

[TheWisestofAll]

Looks like 91L and Convection are forcing a center relocation on Phil. This could slow the storm down signficantly and pull it further south.
The end result of this could result in Phil and 91L merging, which could possibly align the ULAC over Phil. Very complicated situation, and models are are extremely confused. (SHIPS has Phil becoming aligned and strengthening to a C2 before landfalling on PR.)

[Sciencerocks]

[crimi481]

Phil may find his way to the GOM? or Nova Scotia

[abajan]

Monday vs today... That's a huge official track swing in just 48 hours of likes I've hardly ever seen before. Suddenly Phillipe feels like a sleeper.

Monday:
https://i.imgur.com/6hEnO6c.png

This morning:
https://i.imgur.com/jospJEj.png

Guess I need to start paying closer attention.

Yep. Even if it's "just" a tropical depression by the time it reaches your area, it could still dump copious amounts of rainfall. One of Barbados' worst floods on record was produced by a slow-moving tropical depression in 1970. Several other islands were similarly affected by that system. This Wikipedia article states Barbados got 12 inches of rainfall but some parts of the island actually got well in excess of 20 inches.

[Chris90]

Has anyone else been having a horrible time trying to get microwave imagery from either of the navy sites? I usually use the FNMOC portal, but both of them have been refusing to load for me for the past 2 days. It loaded last night for me once, but that was it. It just keeps crashing.

[msbee]

Monday vs today... That's a huge official track swing in just 48 hours of likes I've hardly ever seen before. Suddenly Phillipe feels like a sleeper.

Monday:
https://i.imgur.com/6hEnO6c.png

This morning:
https://i.imgur.com/jospJEj.png

Guess I need to start paying closer attention.

Yep. Even if it's "just" a tropical depression by the time it reaches your area, it could still dump copious amounts of rainfall. One of Barbados' worst floods on record was produced by a slow-moving tropical depression in 1970. Several other islands were similarly affected by that system. This Wikipedia article states Barbados got 12 inches of rainfall but some parts of the island actually got well in excess of 20 inches.

I know
I’ve seen it happen here too.

[eastcoastFL]

This was one of the worst forecasts I’ve seen in a while as far as track goes. I guess even the best pros have some down days.

[TheWisestofAll]

This was one of the worst forecasts I’ve seen in a while as far as track goes. I guess even the best pros have some down days.

Really empathize with the NHC here. Two storms are signficantly interacting with each other generating absurd uncertainty in the models.

[floridasun]

Their fight between two area who will win

[Sciencerocks]

[crimi481]

The forecast naked swirl seems to be absorbing all the energy like a perfect storm. It wants no forecast - no ropes.
What is it. lol

[ChrisH-UK]

You can see why the models are having problems, it's a complete mess with Philippe and 91L fighting each other.

Source - https://col.st/S2NQw

[Cachondo23]

Fujiwhara Effect incoming?

[cycloneye]

Almost statioinary.

AL, 17, 2023092812, , BEST, 0, 185N, 545W, 45, 1002, TS