Texas Fall 2023

[weatherdude1108]

I'm at a point where I'm seriously considering moving to escape this mess. I don't want brutal Winters either, but this year's Summer has truly gotten to me. I cycle and run several days a week, and usually the Summer months aren't that big of a deal. But trying to run at 9pm and it's still 99 degrees just isn't cutting it, also not accounting for not being able to sleep from running so late at night. Mornings this Summer were only slightly better.

Agreed! This summer in Austin offered no relief whether it was early morning or evening. I have two large dogs that enjoy and require walking as does their owner. We used to be able to go at 6:15-6:30 a.m. to beat the heat on our usual 2-mile trek. This past summer almost every morning was 78 degrees or warmer with high, suffocating humidity. We were lucky to average two days a week thanks to the gross weather.

If this is the new "normal" we're all in big trouble.

It may be the New Normal for a while, I have never recalled consistent +80°F Dewpoints in Central Oklahoma. Sure, I had 80°F Dewpoints before, but they were not as consistent as this year. When the Tonga Volcano exploded in January 2022, it produced an ABSURD amount of Water Vapor into the atmosphere!

Yeah, because it was at exactly the right depth, it spewed 10% of the entire water vapor content of the stratosphere, INTO the stratosphere!

Too shallow an eruption would have spewed more particulates and aerosols. Too deep would have been too much water pressure on the eruption to explode much over the surface.

They said the water vapor could stay in the stratosphere for several years, temporarily warming up the planet until it cycles itself out.

Crazy to think about!

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/tonga- ... ratosphere

[dpep4]

I see a smattering of small areas around the state hit the rain lottery today. Others winning brief $5 scratch off showers. All in areas that need it. Some progress.

[Iceresistance]

Don't lose hope!


https://s6.gifyu.com/images/S4A8h.png

[Ntxw]

Ensembles are somewhat onboard with shifting the NPAC pattern to more El Nino. It may take another week. All this is still long range but I'm feeling a little optimistic there is a pathway out of this. Some of the cold fronts modeled may not be total fantasy.

[869MB]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023092712/gfs_T850a_namer_42.png

GFS/CMC/and EPS brings on the Aleutian low (El Nino pattern) that helps to kick off the change. Lets see if we can string together some good runs. They have been at least cooling W-Can of late (model wise.)

I’ve been periodically checking the long range GFS and EPS hoping for a persistent strong Aleutian Low signal because it should theoretically induce warmer waters (or maybe better stated, less cooler waters) over our seemingly never ending -PDO regime over time. One of the possible reasons we’ve seen a recent strengthening of the cooler waters in this region may because of the reemergence of the deeper cooler, in-depth waters from our past La Niña. (The strong positive Atlantic AMO may be playing another factor as well.)

For anyone else wondering, the Aleutian Low is one of the methods how the ENSO modulates the PDO. El Niño usually induces a stronger than normal Aleutian Low during the winter months, which in turn induces stronger southerly winds over the waters along the West Coast of North America, which in turn reduces the amount of cooler waters that emerge from the cooler depths below. So hopefully, a persistent strong Aleutian Low formation may eventually reverse these cooler PDO trends and overcome the ‘reemergence’ factor from our most recent multi year La Niña.

[jasons2k]

Some late night showers north of CLL.

[Ntxw]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023092712/gfs_T850a_namer_42.png

GFS/CMC/and EPS brings on the Aleutian low (El Nino pattern) that helps to kick off the change. Lets see if we can string together some good runs. They have been at least cooling W-Can of late (model wise.)

I’ve been periodically checking the long range GFS and EPS hoping for a persistent strong Aleutian Low signal because it should theoretically induce warmer waters (or maybe better stated, less cooler waters) over our seemingly never ending -PDO regime over time. One of the possible reasons we’ve seen a recent strengthening of the cooler waters in this region may because of the reemergence of the deeper cooler, in-depth waters from our past La Niña. (The strong positive Atlantic AMO may be playing another factor as well.)

For anyone else wondering, the Aleutian Low is one of the methods how the ENSO modulates the PDO. El Niño usually induces a stronger than normal Aleutian Low during the winter months, which in turn induces stronger southerly winds over the waters along the West Coast of North America, which in turn reduces the amount of cooler waters that emerge from the cooler depths below. So hopefully, a persistent strong Aleutian Low formation may eventually reverse these cooler PDO trends and overcome the ‘reemergence’ factor from our most recent multi year La Niña.

Great explanation!

The biggest cause for the -PDO dip lately is the waters around and east of Japan. That's the other half component of the PDO. It's crazy warm. The shoe around North America warmed from last year (Nina) but that pool to the west is what's driving the spike. Aleutian low will cool it as well. The persistent forcing over the IO-MC as well (this is helpful for Atlantic TC) fuels the Aleutian ridge but can tank our PDO.

An Aleutian low pattern is often a precursor to strat PV disruption which usually signals -AO down the road.

[Ptarmigan]

Daily SOI is STILL running negative, since Mid-August!

It will eventually show itself in October, be ready for the deluge!

We have a ways to go before we get a legitimate cool down. Back in 2019, it was really warm in September and we know how that winter turned out Hopefully the niño will kick in sooner rather than later

I would take a warmest fall on record to have a cold winter every year

I am done with hot weather. I will take cold weather.

[Ptarmigan]

GFS/CMC/and EPS brings on the Aleutian low (El Nino pattern) that helps to kick off the change. Lets see if we can string together some good runs. They have been at least cooling W-Can of late (model wise.)

I’ve been periodically checking the long range GFS and EPS hoping for a persistent strong Aleutian Low signal because it should theoretically induce warmer waters (or maybe better stated, less cooler waters) over our seemingly never ending -PDO regime over time. One of the possible reasons we’ve seen a recent strengthening of the cooler waters in this region may because of the reemergence of the deeper cooler, in-depth waters from our past La Niña. (The strong positive Atlantic AMO may be playing another factor as well.)

For anyone else wondering, the Aleutian Low is one of the methods how the ENSO modulates the PDO. El Niño usually induces a stronger than normal Aleutian Low during the winter months, which in turn induces stronger southerly winds over the waters along the West Coast of North America, which in turn reduces the amount of cooler waters that emerge from the cooler depths below. So hopefully, a persistent strong Aleutian Low formation may eventually reverse these cooler PDO trends and overcome the ‘reemergence’ factor from our most recent multi year La Niña.

Great explanation!

The biggest cause for the -PDO dip lately is the waters around and east of Japan. That's the other half component of the PDO. It's crazy warm. The shoe around North America warmed from last year (Nina) but that pool to the west is what's driving the spike. Aleutian low will cool it as well. The persistent forcing over the IO-MC as well (this is helpful for Atlantic TC) fuels the Aleutian ridge but can tank our PDO.

An Aleutian low pattern is often a precursor to strat PV disruption which usually signals -AO down the road.

https://i.imgur.com/HGIXHG5.png

https://i.imgur.com/Uuj0d4Z.png

What is IO-MC?

[tajmahal]

I’ve been periodically checking the long range GFS and EPS hoping for a persistent strong Aleutian Low signal because it should theoretically induce warmer waters (or maybe better stated, less cooler waters) over our seemingly never ending -PDO regime over time. One of the possible reasons we’ve seen a recent strengthening of the cooler waters in this region may because of the reemergence of the deeper cooler, in-depth waters from our past La Niña. (The strong positive Atlantic AMO may be playing another factor as well.)

For anyone else wondering, the Aleutian Low is one of the methods how the ENSO modulates the PDO. El Niño usually induces a stronger than normal Aleutian Low during the winter months, which in turn induces stronger southerly winds over the waters along the West Coast of North America, which in turn reduces the amount of cooler waters that emerge from the cooler depths below. So hopefully, a persistent strong Aleutian Low formation may eventually reverse these cooler PDO trends and overcome the ‘reemergence’ factor from our most recent multi year La Niña.

Except that an El Niño is not helpful in predicting what the PDO will do.

[tajmahal]

On September 26, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology declared than an El Niño is ongoing. The bureau expects it to continue through February, possibly longer.

The bureau also said that a positive Indian Ocean dipole is likely to persist through December. That is good news for the upcoming short rains in equatorial east Africa.

Both of these make a ferocious Austrialian summer more likely.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Edwards Limestone]

I’ve been periodically checking the long range GFS and EPS hoping for a persistent strong Aleutian Low signal because it should theoretically induce warmer waters (or maybe better stated, less cooler waters) over our seemingly never ending -PDO regime over time. One of the possible reasons we’ve seen a recent strengthening of the cooler waters in this region may because of the reemergence of the deeper cooler, in-depth waters from our past La Niña. (The strong positive Atlantic AMO may be playing another factor as well.)

For anyone else wondering, the Aleutian Low is one of the methods how the ENSO modulates the PDO. El Niño usually induces a stronger than normal Aleutian Low during the winter months, which in turn induces stronger southerly winds over the waters along the West Coast of North America, which in turn reduces the amount of cooler waters that emerge from the cooler depths below. So hopefully, a persistent strong Aleutian Low formation may eventually reverse these cooler PDO trends and overcome the ‘reemergence’ factor from our most recent multi year La Niña.

Except that an El Niño is not helpful in predicting what the PDO will do.

This doesn’t really make sense. Please elaborate.

[Portastorm]

I’ve been periodically checking the long range GFS and EPS hoping for a persistent strong Aleutian Low signal because it should theoretically induce warmer waters (or maybe better stated, less cooler waters) over our seemingly never ending -PDO regime over time. One of the possible reasons we’ve seen a recent strengthening of the cooler waters in this region may because of the reemergence of the deeper cooler, in-depth waters from our past La Niña. (The strong positive Atlantic AMO may be playing another factor as well.)

For anyone else wondering, the Aleutian Low is one of the methods how the ENSO modulates the PDO. El Niño usually induces a stronger than normal Aleutian Low during the winter months, which in turn induces stronger southerly winds over the waters along the West Coast of North America, which in turn reduces the amount of cooler waters that emerge from the cooler depths below. So hopefully, a persistent strong Aleutian Low formation may eventually reverse these cooler PDO trends and overcome the ‘reemergence’ factor from our most recent multi year La Niña.

Except that an El Niño is not helpful in predicting what the PDO will do.

This doesn’t really make sense. Please elaborate.

Spend 10 minutes on Google looking up "does ENSO influence PDO" and you will find that studies have been inconclusive. However, studies do show that the PDO will influence the ENSO state. The more negative the PDO is during a La Nina, the more pronounced effects of the La Nina. Conversely, if the PDO is strongly positive during an El Nino, the Nino impacts are more pronounced. But that doesn't answer our current question of debate which seems to be ... does a negative PDO mitigate the impacts of an El Nino? Studies do show that a strong Aleutian low diminishes a negative PDO.

[lukem]

The last two runs of the GFS have shown an EPAC system recurving over Mexico into Texas at the end of the run around October 12th. Obviously we are talking fantasy land, but this setup has led to massive rain and flooding during this time of the year with past systems. Something to watch closely over the coming weeks.

[Itryatgolf]

GFS/CMC/and EPS brings on the Aleutian low (El Nino pattern) that helps to kick off the change. Lets see if we can string together some good runs. They have been at least cooling W-Can of late (model wise.)

I’ve been periodically checking the long range GFS and EPS hoping for a persistent strong Aleutian Low signal because it should theoretically induce warmer waters (or maybe better stated, less cooler waters) over our seemingly never ending -PDO regime over time. One of the possible reasons we’ve seen a recent strengthening of the cooler waters in this region may because of the reemergence of the deeper cooler, in-depth waters from our past La Niña. (The strong positive Atlantic AMO may be playing another factor as well.)

For anyone else wondering, the Aleutian Low is one of the methods how the ENSO modulates the PDO. El Niño usually induces a stronger than normal Aleutian Low during the winter months, which in turn induces stronger southerly winds over the waters along the West Coast of North America, which in turn reduces the amount of cooler waters that emerge from the cooler depths below. So hopefully, a persistent strong Aleutian Low formation may eventually reverse these cooler PDO trends and overcome the ‘reemergence’ factor from our most recent multi year La Niña.

Great explanation!

The biggest cause for the -PDO dip lately is the waters around and east of Japan. That's the other half component of the PDO. It's crazy warm. The shoe around North America warmed from last year (Nina) but that pool to the west is what's driving the spike. Aleutian low will cool it as well. The persistent forcing over the IO-MC as well (this is helpful for Atlantic TC) fuels the Aleutian ridge but can tank our PDO.

An Aleutian low pattern is often a precursor to strat PV disruption which usually signals -AO down the road.

https://i.imgur.com/HGIXHG5.png

https://i.imgur.com/Uuj0d4Z.png

The pdo has been negative for a while, which does promote more -pna trough out west. One would think the intense niño will weaken the pdo, but hasn't happened yet. Also, I want to see the niño become more central or 3.4 aligned instead of 1.2 because an east based niño promotes more of a +ao/nao configuration

[Cpv17]

I’ve been periodically checking the long range GFS and EPS hoping for a persistent strong Aleutian Low signal because it should theoretically induce warmer waters (or maybe better stated, less cooler waters) over our seemingly never ending -PDO regime over time. One of the possible reasons we’ve seen a recent strengthening of the cooler waters in this region may because of the reemergence of the deeper cooler, in-depth waters from our past La Niña. (The strong positive Atlantic AMO may be playing another factor as well.)

For anyone else wondering, the Aleutian Low is one of the methods how the ENSO modulates the PDO. El Niño usually induces a stronger than normal Aleutian Low during the winter months, which in turn induces stronger southerly winds over the waters along the West Coast of North America, which in turn reduces the amount of cooler waters that emerge from the cooler depths below. So hopefully, a persistent strong Aleutian Low formation may eventually reverse these cooler PDO trends and overcome the ‘reemergence’ factor from our most recent multi year La Niña.

Great explanation!

The biggest cause for the -PDO dip lately is the waters around and east of Japan. That's the other half component of the PDO. It's crazy warm. The shoe around North America warmed from last year (Nina) but that pool to the west is what's driving the spike. Aleutian low will cool it as well. The persistent forcing over the IO-MC as well (this is helpful for Atlantic TC) fuels the Aleutian ridge but can tank our PDO.

An Aleutian low pattern is often a precursor to strat PV disruption which usually signals -AO down the road.

https://i.imgur.com/HGIXHG5.png

https://i.imgur.com/Uuj0d4Z.png

The pdo has been negative for a while, which does promote more -pna trough out west. One would think the intense niño will weaken the pdo, but hasn't happened yet. Also, I want to see the niño become more central or 3.4 aligned instead of 1.2 because an east based niño promotes more of a +ao/nao configuration

Yeah, the Niño needs to shift more west. It’s still too close to SA for my liking.

[Itryatgolf]

Great explanation!

The biggest cause for the -PDO dip lately is the waters around and east of Japan. That's the other half component of the PDO. It's crazy warm. The shoe around North America warmed from last year (Nina) but that pool to the west is what's driving the spike. Aleutian low will cool it as well. The persistent forcing over the IO-MC as well (this is helpful for Atlantic TC) fuels the Aleutian ridge but can tank our PDO.

An Aleutian low pattern is often a precursor to strat PV disruption which usually signals -AO down the road.

https://i.imgur.com/HGIXHG5.png

https://i.imgur.com/Uuj0d4Z.png

The pdo has been negative for a while, which does promote more -pna trough out west. One would think the intense niño will weaken the pdo, but hasn't happened yet. Also, I want to see the niño become more central or 3.4 aligned instead of 1.2 because an east based niño promotes more of a +ao/nao configuration

Yeah, the Niño needs to shift more west. It’s still too close to SA for my liking.

There are alot of conflicting signals, especially for this year. More than normal for sure but it's still early

[TropicalTundra]

End of the CMC with the same cool front for a few runs. Might have to actually keep some eyes on this?

[Cpv17]

CPC forecast looks much better today! Slightly above normal temps and above normal rainfall!

[South Texas Storms]

CPC forecast looks much better today! Slightly above normal temps and above normal rainfall!

Yep, our much needed pattern change is looking increasingly likely to begin next week. I'm so ready!