ATL: PHILIPPE - Post Tropical/Extratropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1707392006597570844




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1707402788731601396




An absolute forecasting nightmare. Philippe is no longer expected to dissipate within the next five days, become a depression, or affect the islands.

[Teban54]

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1707392006597570844

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1707402788731601396

An absolute forecasting nightmare. Philippe is no longer expected to dissipate within the next five days, become a depression, or affect the islands.

It almost looks like Philippe is splitting itself into two storms, before even considering Rina

[tolakram]

I see a single LLC, with an MLC sheared NW of the LLC. Who's winning the betting odds for survival, Philippe or Rina?

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14581.19921875&y=6963.7998046875&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[tolakram]

Day cloud phase enhancement. https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14582.5595703125&y=6959.85986328125&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=jma_day_cloud_phase_distinction_rgb&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[hipshot]

Day cloud phase enhancement. https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14582.5595703125&y=6959.85986328125&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=jma_day_cloud_phase_distinction_rgb&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

Looking at that makes it look really confusing. Is that 2 storms or 2 circulations. Rina is not in that picture is she?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Philippe and Rina doing the Fujiwara Dance

[Teban54]

Day cloud phase enhancement. https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14582.5595703125&y=6959.85986328125&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=jma_day_cloud_phase_distinction_rgb&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

Looking at that makes it look really confusing. Is that 2 storms or 2 circulations. Rina is not in that picture is she?

That's just the displaced LLC and MLC of Philippe. Rina is well to the SE.

From NHC discussion:

Philippe remains a very disorganized and elongated storm.
Geostationary and microwave satellite images show a low-level
circulation center well to the west of the mid-level center, where
most of the deep convection is currently concentrated.

[AnnularCane]

Day cloud phase enhancement. https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14582.5595703125&y=6959.85986328125&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=jma_day_cloud_phase_distinction_rgb&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

Looking at that makes it look really confusing. Is that 2 storms or 2 circulations. Rina is not in that picture is she?

That's just the displaced LLC and MLC of Philippe. Rina is well to the SE.

From NHC discussion:

Philippe remains a very disorganized and elongated storm.
Geostationary and microwave satellite images show a low-level
circulation center well to the west of the mid-level center, where
most of the deep convection is currently concentrated.

You can see them both if you zoom out.

Kinda cute together, huh? I mean, well, assuming they don't get Fujiwhara'ed to death, I guess.

[MarioProtVI]

Looks like it’s opened up into a trough, as evidenced by low-level cloud motions. Broad area of spin and that “center” NHC noted in 11am seems to be a very weak mesovortex. I think they may gut this at 5, but possibly continue advisories due to the uncertainty with both it and Rina (this has precedent, with Fred 2021 when it degenerated over Cuba).

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1707448175265456334

[floridasun]

https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1707448175265456334

he good former met here miami

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing a well-defined LLC in high-res satellite imagery. I see a very elongated and weak circulation. Tough forecast due to its interaction with Rina.

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

I'm not seeing a well-defined LLC in high-res satellite imagery. I see a very elongated and weak circulation. Tough forecast due to its interaction with Rina.

I can see something like Ophelia 2011 where it degenerates, turns north, regenerates and becomes a significant hurricane in the subtropics which some models seem to agree on.

[Nimbus]

Looks like it’s opened up into a trough, as evidenced by low-level cloud motions. Broad area of spin and that “center” NHC noted in 11am seems to be a very weak mesovortex. I think they may gut this at 5, but possibly continue advisories due to the uncertainty with both it and Rina (this has precedent, with Fred 2021 when it degenerated over Cuba).

I only watched it till the last visible images but still had a closed circulation at some level.
The good news it will probably remain weak even if it does drift closer to the islands.

[Iceresistance]

Couldn't be more accurate with the confused models.

...PHILIPPE'S FATE IS UNCERTAIN...

5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 28
Location: 18.9°N 55.1°W
Moving: WNW at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

[Teban54]

To my amateur eyes, it looks like the LLC is being pulled SE into the convection and becoming slightly better defined.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Looks like Phil will be the dominant one after all.

INIT 29/0300Z 18.3N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 18.2N 55.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 17.9N 55.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 17.6N 55.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 17.2N 56.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 17.0N 56.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 17.0N 57.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 18.8N 57.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 21.7N 58.3W 50 KT 60 MPH