Texas Fall 2023

[weatherdude1108]

[JDawg512]

Unfortunately it's warm Fall, warm winter, warm spring, HOT summer most of the time with sprinkles of cold days in between . And all this is an already warmer moving average baseline.

I'm still on the boat of an interesting winter with the kind of El Nino/PDO in place, but there's this eery feeling that the hot oceans + hot land is going to bite us again. At this point, I can accept normal, been beaten to submission.

I'm at a point where I'm seriously considering moving to escape this mess. I don't want brutal Winters either, but this year's Summer has truly gotten to me. I cycle and run several days a week, and usually the Summer months aren't that big of a deal. But trying to run at 9pm and it's still 99 degrees just isn't cutting it, also not accounting for not being able to sleep from running so late at night. Mornings this Summer were only slightly better.

Agreed! This summer in Austin offered no relief whether it was early morning or evening. I have two large dogs that enjoy and require walking as does their owner. We used to be able to go at 6:15-6:30 a.m. to beat the heat on our usual 2-mile trek. This past summer almost every morning was 78 degrees or warmer with high, suffocating humidity. We were lucky to average two days a week thanks to the gross weather.

If this is the new "normal" we're all in big trouble.

Unfortunately this year may be one of the "cooler" years in the coming decades. That is according to Michael Webber, who is a professor of Energy Resources at the University of Texas.

[JDawg512]

Agreed! This summer in Austin offered no relief whether it was early morning or evening. I have two large dogs that enjoy and require walking as does their owner. We used to be able to go at 6:15-6:30 a.m. to beat the heat on our usual 2-mile trek. This past summer almost every morning was 78 degrees or warmer with high, suffocating humidity. We were lucky to average two days a week thanks to the gross weather.

If this is the new "normal" we're all in big trouble.

It may be the New Normal for a while, I have never recalled consistent +80°F Dewpoints in Central Oklahoma. Sure, I had 80°F Dewpoints before, but they were not as consistent as this year. When the Tonga Volcano exploded in January 2022, it produced an ABSURD amount of Water Vapor into the atmosphere!

Yeah, because it was at exactly the right depth, it spewed 10% of the entire water vapor content of the stratosphere, INTO the stratosphere!

Too shallow an eruption would have spewed more particulates and aerosols. Too deep would have been too much water pressure on the eruption to explode much over the surface.

They said the water vapor could stay in the stratosphere for several years, temporarily warming up the planet until it cycles itself out.

Crazy to think about!

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/tonga- ... ratosphere

As more research has been done this year, findings are that the Tonga eruption (while having some influence) is not a major cause of heating.

https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/did-the-tonga-eruption-cause-this-years-extreme-heat

So is the gigantic eruption responsible for this summer's sweltering conditions?  "The short answer is no," Gloria Manney, a senior research scientist at NorthWest Research Associates and New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, and Luis Millán, a research scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told Live Science together in an email.

"Even though El Niño has made the global temperature higher and the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption might have affected some regions for a short time, the main culprit is climate change," they said.

And numerous studies show that the massive eruption isn't causing this climate change — human activites such as the burning of fossil fuels are the driving factor.

[JDawg512]

I've watched storms at night since I was a kid and very few ever caused me to actually feel nervous the way that storm did. It missed the rain cave just to the east but was close enough to being powerful winds that knocked a tree down on my house. Gonna be a lot of work to clear it out, not to mention any potential damage to the roof.

Bummer. So sorry.

Thanks, Its still on the house, however I don't think there is much more than cosmetic damage. It's metal roof and from what I can tell, (haven't claimed up on the roof yet, getting up there this evening) no structural damage.. Hopefully.

[Ntxw]

What is IO-MC?

Indian Ocean to Maritime Continent phase space of the MJO.

[bubba hotep]

Looking pretty good for DFW

[tajmahal]

I posted this about 3 pages up. This peer–reviewed study was published in May 2023.

"Compared to the low-prediction-skill era of 1960–2010, the influence of ENSO on the North Pacific is much more significant during 1910–1960, with ENSO’s effects extending significantly to the subpolar region. On the other hand, during 1960–2010, ENSO’s influences become weaker and were only limited to the mid-latitude."

From "Evaluating Changes in the Multiyear Predictability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Using Model Analogs since 1900" (2023)
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/11/5/980

=====

And then this on page 3, summarizing a peer–reviewed study from last year.

A negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation enhances winter and spring La Niña temperature and precipitation teleconnections. It also diminishes El Niño teleconnections.

From "Modulation of ENSO teleconnections over North America by the Pacific decadal oscillation" (2022)
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9327/meta

[Ptarmigan]

What is IO-MC?

Indian Ocean to Maritime Continent phase space of the MJO.

Thank you Ntxw. I always thought Indian Ocean does affect our weather. This includes hurricane season.

[Brent]

I'm going to London in 2 weeks where TWC has highs in the 60s but it sure would be nice to see some fall here before that looking promising after Tuesday Wednesday for sure or at least way better than it was today

[TropicalTundra]

Trends in the runs today look promising with some northern air coming down. Plus some decent rains by Friday. Fall on the way??

[Gotwood]

All I have to say is please lord let the CMC runs verify.

[bubba hotep]

All I have to say is please lord let the CMC runs verify.

[bubba hotep]

EPAC looks to turn on, and models are showing the potential for moisture to stream north from those systems into Texas. Depends on timing, but that is a big time heavy rainfall setup.

[South Texas Storms]

EPAC looks to turn on, and models are showing the potential for moisture to stream north from those systems into Texas. Depends on timing, but that is a big time heavy rainfall setup.

Yep, we often see that pattern occur in October during developing El Nino events. Wouldn't surprise me at all if that happens in a few weeks.

[Brent]

I dunno about rainfall yet but highs around 70 and lows near 50 next weekend showing up

[Ntxw]

After a long battle with never-ending heat and summer, Fall will finally arrive later this week. Godsend.

As noted above, there may also be a significant EPAC TC recurve that should be involved in the medium-long range.

[Itryatgolf]

After a long battle with never-ending heat and summer, Fall will finally arrive later this week. Godsend.

As noted above, there may also be a significant EPAC TC recurve that should be involved in the medium-long range.

I know this isnt fall related, but if we can get the shift in El niño more west, we will have a really great chance at a colder stormier winter

[Cpv17]

After a long battle with never-ending heat and summer, Fall will finally arrive later this week. Godsend.

As noted above, there may also be a significant EPAC TC recurve that should be involved in the medium-long range.

I know this isnt fall related, but if we can get the shift in El niño more west, we will have a really great chance at a colder stormier winter

Yep! That’s what I’m hoping for.

[Ntxw]

Frothing looking at Euro temps. Highs 60s/70s and lows in 50s. Never really heats back up after. Opportunities for rain. Lock it in.

This would help.

[rwfromkansas]

I hope the rain continues to impact such a broad area and not trend west and skip DFW again. But, this time it seems likely to be more widespread I think.