ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

[Iceresistance]

This is a very difficult forecast


https://s6.gifyu.com/images/S4O3w.jpg

[cycloneye]

Good news for the NE Caribbean Islands.

[Craters]

A new poster for the Tropical Meteorologists' Therapy Fund?



Sorry that's for Philippe, but I couldn't resist. Mod -- please delete this if it's inappropriate. Thank you.

[aspen]

The GFS, Euro, CMC, ICON, and HWRF all show Phillipe becoming the dominant system and intensifying into a hurricane as it heads north. The HAFS-A/B kill both systems.

[tolakram]

For all my criticism of the GFS, it seems to be consistently better with sheared systems. I believe it was the first to recognize Phil as winning, the Euro just came on board last night.

IF this actually happens, of course. For all I know all models will flip to Rina tomorrow.

[Kazmit]

GFS has been pretty consistent the past day or so with Phillippe deepening into a major while Rina dies out.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF a little bit closer to Leewards but eventually goes north.

[Woofde]

The 12z GFS keeps Philippe alive even past October 15th, taking it all the way to the canaries and then bouncing back to the open Atlantic. That would be quite crazy, though I doubt it comes to frutition.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The 12z GFS keeps Philippe alive even past October 15th, taking it all the way to the canaries and then bouncing back to the open Atlantic. That would be quite crazy, though I doubt it comes to frutition.

22 day life span would put it on par with other long lived Atlantic systems.. rare, but not impossible at all.

[WalterWhite]

The HWRF, HMON, and HAFS-A take this to a 110-kt major hurricane.

[kevin]

06z hurricane models overview. I didn't count sudden increases in wind for 1 frame (f.e. in HAFS-A at 42 hrs and HMON at 6 hrs) as a consistent upgrade in hurricane category. Clearly a big difference between HWRF/HMON and HAFS-A/HAFS-B.

HWRF
PEAK: 941 mb @ 111 hrs | 116 kt @ 102 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1001 / 44
06 / 1003 / 41
12 / 1001 / 40
18 / 1003 / 49
24 / 998 / 46
30 / 998 / 51
36 / 990 / 52
42 / 985 / 66 - CAT 1
48 / 978 / 73
54 / 979 / 76
60 / 977 / 70
66 / 971 / 81
72 / 964 / 84 - CAT 2
78 / 959 / 101 - CAT 3
84 / 955 / 96
90 / 949 / 93
96 / 948 / 95
102 / 947 / 116 - CAT 4
108 / 944 / 112
114 / 942 / 110
120 / 944 / 108
126 / 949 / 104

HMON
PEAK: 933 mb @ 96 hrs | 116 kt @ 96 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 998 / 43
06 / 990 / 68
12 / 990 / 55
18 / 987 / 59
24 / 984 / 67 - CAT 1
30 / 982 / 70
36 / 975 / 75
42 / 974 / 78
48 / 975 / 69
54 / 976 / 73
60 / 971 / 82
66 / 963 / 93 - CAT 2
72 / 960 / 101 - CAT 3
78 / 953 / 105
84 / 943 / 116 - CAT 4
90 / 937 / 109
96 / 933 / 116
102 / 949 / 91
108 / 953 / 78
114 / 955 / 77
120 / 958 / 65
126 / 964 / 73

HAFS-A
PEAK: 954 mb @ 114 hrs | 108 kt @ 114 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 998 / 48
06 / 1003 / 38
12 / 1001 / 40
18 / 996 / 51
24 / 995 / 45
30 / 1001 / 45
36 / 994 / 55
42 / 988 / 77
48 / 997 / 46
54 / 995 / 61
60 / 994 / 56
66 / 993 / 49
72 / 993 / 52
78 / 990 / 59
84 / 986 / 63
90 / 980 / 69 - CAT 1
96 / 974 / 77
102 / 971 / 95 - CAT 2
108 / 958 / 107 - CAT 3
114 / 954 / 108
120 / 958 / 98
126 / 961 / 97

HAFS-B
PEAK: 908 mb @ 117 hrs | 153 kt @ 105 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 991 / 51
06 / 1003 / 38
12 / 1003 / 40
18 / 1002 / 40
24 / 1000 / 41
30 / 1001 / 38
36 / 998 / 40
42 / 999 / 45
48 / 999 / 44
54 / 1001 / 39
60 / 993 / 48
66 / 995 / 58
72 / 999 / 39
78 / 999 / 42
84 / 995 / 47
90 / 1000 / 49
96 / 1001 / 40
102 / 1003 / 34
108 / 994 / 55
114 / 1003 / 43
120 / 1000 / 41
126 / 1005 / 39

[Hurricane2022]

HAFS-B

[kevin]

06z hurricane models overview. Only HWRF still shows a MH of these 4 models and the others barely show a cat 1.

HWRF
PEAK: 949 mb @ 108 hrs | 104 kt @ 96 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 997 / 44
06 / 991 / 63
12 / 993 / 63
18 / 991 / 63
24 / 991 / 55
30 / 994 / 50
36 / 991 / 50
42 / 988 / 59
48 / 986 / 55
54 / 983 / 60
60 / 977 / 63
66 / 977 / 56
72 / 972 / 72 - CAT 1
78 / 966 / 87 - CAT 2
84 / 960 / 99 - CAT 3
90 / 958 / 98
96 / 952 / 104
102 / 950 / 100
108 / 949 / 98
114 / 953 / 97
120 / 953 / 100
126 / 957 / 102

HMON
PEAK: 979 mb @ 102 hrs | 79 kt @ 126 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 998 / 46
06 / 998 / 46
12 / 989 / 58
18 / 994 / 56
24 / 992 / 61
30 / 994 / 51
36 / 994 / 55
42 / 994 / 50
48 / 995 / 43
54 / 989 / 65
60 / 992 / 52
66 / 995 / 51
72 / 994 / 57
78 / 993 / 58
84 / 994 / 56
90 / 990 / 53
96 / 987 / 62
102 / 979 / 67 - CAT 1
108 / 983 / 60
114 / 983 / 67
120 / 983 / 61
126 / 980 / 79

HAFS-A
PEAK: 985 mb @ 126 hrs | 68 kt @ 114 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 999 / 41
06 / 997 / 43
12 / 994 / 45
18 / 998 / 46
24 / 997 / 48
30 / 996 / 44
36 / 998 / 46
42 / 994 / 52
48 / 995 / 51
54 / 999 / 43
60 / 997 / 46
66 / 1000 / 50
72 / 997 / 46
78 / 993 / 48
84 / 994 / 45
90 / 992 / 51
96 / 991 / 56
102 / 993 / 58
108 / 992 / 55
114 / 990 / 68 - CAT 1
120 / 987 / 62
126 / 985 / 54

HAFS-B
PEAK: 981 mb @ 126 hrs | 70 kt @ 75 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 991 / 41
06 / 998 / 58
12 / 1001 / 51
18 / 998 / 47
24 / 995 / 48
30 / 1000 / 53
36 / 1001 / 46
42 / 1001 / 43
48 / 997 / 57
54 / 1002 / 37
60 / 1001 / 42
66 / 997 / 46
72 / 994 / 57
78 / 994 / 51
84 / 994 / 47
90 / 991 / 55
96 / 988 / 59
102 / 990 / 53
108 / 987 / 59
114 / 991 / 54
120 / 989 / 60
126 / 981 / 60

[PavelGaborik10]

Euro has been trying to left hook this thing into Atlantic Canada for a couple of days now.

My money is on a safe recurve.

[PavelGaborik10]

Looks like models are sending Philippe(or whatever remains of him) into the same area that was hit by Lee.

The positive news is they've trended weak and impacts would likely be equal, or likely even less than Lee, which didn't pack much of a punch at all.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Looks like models are sending Philippe(or whatever remains of him) into the same area that was hit by Lee.

The positive news is they've trended weak and impacts would likely be equal, or likely even less than Lee, which didn't pack much of a punch at all.

When I saw the models this morning I was literally "you've got to be kidding me!?". The track has shifted so dramatically since last Friday that it is unreal.

[Teban54]

FWIW, 0z HWRF still shows Philippe becoming a 65-70 kt Cat 1 when it's SE of Bermuda, but it's the only model that does so. HAFS-B shows 70 kt winds during extratropical transition.