ATL: PHILIPPE - Post Tropical/Extratropical - Discussion

[floridasun]

hc say their issue ts watch islands by 5am if keep moving more sw by 5am

[JRD]

Seems that Philippe will continue moving SW as long as Rina is still active.

[cycloneye]

For our friends in the Leeward Islands, NHC may have watches or warnings later today.


Philippe is forecast to produce 1 to 4 inches of rain
across portions of the Leeward Islands by Monday into Tuesday. This
rainfall may result in isolated flash flooding.

Gusty winds are possible in portions of the northern
leeward islands by Monday.

[cycloneye]

Getting closer to Guadeloupe.

AL, 17, 2023100112, , BEST, 0, 159N, 584W, 45, 1002, TS[b]

[/b]

[abajan]

Getting closer to Guadeloupe.

AL, 17, 2023100112, , BEST, 0, 159N, 584W, 45, 1002, TS[b]

[/b]

https://i.imgur.com/Pgkh3Nk.png

There was quite a bit of lightning late last night here in Barbados and this morning most areas have been getting a few showers.

[wxman57]

It's a toss-up as to whether Rina or Philippe is more poorly organized this morning. Squalls are closer to Rina's center than to Philippe's. Not sure why recon made a single pass through Philippe's exposed center and headed back to base. Maybe equipment issues? In order for the northern Islands to get any sustained TS wind, Philippe would have to move into the NE Caribbean. Passing near the islands won't do it, as there is no TS wind west of the center or SW of the center. May be questionable if there are any at all. Another two zombie storms for 2023.

[Sciencerocks]

[WeatherBoy2000]

By shear persistence alone Philippe has accumulated 6 ace, for reference Idalia only generated 7.4 ace as a major hurricane. Models show Philippe remaining a horribly sheared storm until the middle of the week before it has any chance of becoming a hurricane.

[Cachondo23]

We waited until the first day of October for a TS Watch in the NE Caribbean for the season. Pretty rare?

[msbee]

Noon update from our local met office:
https://www.meteosxm.com/tropical-weather-update-3/

[cycloneye]

Begins to move westnorthwest.

AL, 17, 2023100118, , BEST, 0, 163N, 588W, 45, 1002, TS

[cycloneye]

Some convection trying to form around the center.

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

12Z GFS has Philippe tracking closer to the islands than the 12Z Euro but the weak dry side of the storm shouldn't pose much of a problem except for high surf.

[cycloneye]

Dont know what is up. Maybe they missed the center?

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Convection getting very close to the islands.

[msbee]

Convection getting very close to the islands.

https://i.imgur.com/oH37RwP.gif

Good morning Luis. Light on and off rain here in SXM. No watches set for us yet.I suspect we will have some squally weather later today.tonight. And probably heavy rain, which always causes localized flooding.
Everyone on the island still has PTSD from Irma, so people are nervous.
If we survived Irma, we can survive anything. LOL

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

AL, 17, 2023100212, , BEST, 0, 170N, 605W, 45, 998, TS