Texas Fall 2023

[Gotwood]

That CMC run could easily break records if it were to verify. 50s for highs and 30s for lows. Good amount of rain too for the metroplex on Thursday.

NAM's nearly in range too so it'll be fun to see what it has to say.

Yeah crazy. Looks like the GFS pushes the colder air more east which seems like always happens.

[cstrunk]

That higher QPF line keeps getting squeezed west of the TX/LA border... I don't like that trend. Glad cooler temperatures are on the way though.

[Gotwood]

That higher QPF line keeps getting squeezed west of the TX/LA border... I don't like that trend. Glad cooler temperatures are on the way though.

Yeah looks like my area is getting set up for a disappointment again. We badly need rain my front yard looks like a desert.

[Itryatgolf]

The models look good for yall folks. Unfortunately not for my area and we need the rain as well.

[rwfromkansas]

DFW totals look better from WPC today. Still looks to strongly cut off west of 35. Bit, still a good rain.

[Brent]

TWC going with a low of 44 here Saturday morning

[rwfromkansas]

The NAM looks good for DFW. I am still waiting to be too hopeful since frankly, we have been burned so much...

It looks pretty heavy, but since almost all of it falls late in the overnight hours early Thursday, a lot can go wrong. If that line changes orientation or something, something can still get screwed up. I would feel more comfortable if it was a multi-day event. If one day falls up, it can still make it up later.

Cautiously optimistic.

[bubba hotep]

18z NAM! I'm not promoting the but I have noticed that the last several DFW "events" looked good on the globals but the NAM never really showed anything. So, I feel like this is a good sign, maybe

[Edwards Limestone]

They’ve cut us down to 1” of rain that may or may not pan out on Thursday.

At least it won’t be as hot I guess.

[Cpv17]

They’ve cut us down to 1” of rain that may or may not pan out on Thursday.

At least it won’t be as hot I guess.

The WPC has issued a slight risk for excessive rainfall for your area on Thursday. I’d say as of right now it’s a good bet that you’ll get more than 1” of rain this week.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW keeps pushing the heaviest rain east and south. So we'll see what happens.

[Edwards Limestone]

They’ve cut us down to 1” of rain that may or may not pan out on Thursday.

At least it won’t be as hot I guess.

The WPC has issued a slight risk for excessive rainfall for your area on Thursday. I’d say as of right now it’s a good bet that you’ll get more than 1” of rain this week.

I hope it pans out but I’m not holding my breath. We’ve had systems that look as promising or better in this range before. The models always seem to start stepping down in magnitude at about this point- QPF forecast for my area has already been reduced by half.

The last couple of years have been brutal. Trees are dying everywhere in my part of the Hill Country. Just too dry and too hot since 2020 really.

I want to believe but it’s tough. -PDO is an absolute killer.

[tajmahal]

All the global deterministic models are now forecasting a maximum of 1.30 inches of rain for Austin Camp Mabry through October 10. For San Saba upstream on the Colorado River, the maximum is 1.67 inches.

From the ensembles for Camp Mabry, here are the 90th percentile rainfall forecasts through October 10:
3.24 inches...ECMWF
2.30 inches...GEM
1.41 inches ..GFS

Welcome rains, for sure, but don"t cut back on your tree watering.

[bubba hotep]

00z 3k NAM has a rain bomb over the eastern half of DFW

[ElectricStorm]

Wednesday looks like it could turn into an interesting severe weather day for NW TX/SW OK. Just a marginal risk for now but the HRRR and RRFS are showing some pretty solid potential. Low-level shear won't be anything crazy but could be enough to get the job done. I'm a little skeptical due to morning convection potentially lasting for a while but for October standards it certainly has my attention.

Even more excited for the cool-down coming up, hopefully for good this time.

[cstrunk]

Now the edge of the heavy rain blob has shifted back towards the TX/LA border. I guess it is better to not be in the bullseye 4-7 days out.

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't get too caught up in qpf amounts. This isn't the right 500mb set up for torrential rains, it's a line of storms accompanying the cold front. Locally can see higher amounts but it's your typical NW flow type events. Some rain and cooler Fall air is the moral of the story.

Something like the end of the Euro and CMC with a SW trough slowly kicking out is more of a rain type set up if it verified.

[CaptinCrunch]

I wouldn't get too caught up in qpf amounts. This isn't the right 500mb set up for torrential rains, it's a line of storms accompanying the cold front. Locally can see higher amounts but it's your typical NW flow type events. Some rain and cooler Fall air is the moral of the story.

Something like the end of the Euro and CMC with a SW trough slowly kicking out is more of a rain type set up if it verified.

I hear you, but with the drought we have been in, and that so many of us have missed out on the storms that have come though it's dishearting to see the coverage % start dropping just 24hrs out. Wednesday is a good example of this with the forecast dropping the coverage from 80% to now a 50% and that is now looking more like it will be the eastern hafe of the forecast area that will see the higher coverages.

We need an consistant multi day rain event across NTX to make a dent in the drought, just a good old fashion soaker that last 3-4 days, that isn't much to ask for!!

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't get too caught up in qpf amounts. This isn't the right 500mb set up for torrential rains, it's a line of storms accompanying the cold front. Locally can see higher amounts but it's your typical NW flow type events. Some rain and cooler Fall air is the moral of the story.

Something like the end of the Euro and CMC with a SW trough slowly kicking out is more of a rain type set up if it verified.

I hear you, but with the drought we have been in, and that so many of us have missed out on the stroms that have come though it's dishearting to see the coverage % start dropping just 24hrs out. Wednesday is a good example of this with the forecast dropping the coverage from 80% to now a 50% and that is now looking more like it will be the eastern hafe of the forecast area that will see the higher coverages.

We need an consistant multi day rain event across NTX to make a dent in the drought, just a good old fashion soaker that last 3-4 days, that isn't much to ask for!!

Totally understand! I was just noting the pattern for the coming few days was not the best looking pattern to get excited about high rainfall totals. Most in the northern and northeastern half of the state should still see a line of storms sweep through quick 1-3".

A couple of years ago (2021?) I noted in several posts the coming years would be challenge when the PDO was chugging negative and that heat and drought would become more prevalent, the rainfall totals would be subpar. Luckily I had prepared somewhat for such a stretch and changed my home landscaping for it. If 2008-2014 taught me anything is that long stretches of -PDO you just expect this. -PDO has been around since Fall of 2019, four years ago. We were doing ok in the beginning because we were coming out of an extremely wet +PDO period 2015-2018, but eventually the dry days outnumbered the wet days and here we are.

[South Texas Storms]

I wouldn't get too caught up in qpf amounts. This isn't the right 500mb set up for torrential rains, it's a line of storms accompanying the cold front. Locally can see higher amounts but it's your typical NW flow type events. Some rain and cooler Fall air is the moral of the story.

Something like the end of the Euro and CMC with a SW trough slowly kicking out is more of a rain type set up if it verified.

Yeah unfortunately it was looking better a few days ago when the trough was progged to hang back west for a few days. Now that's no longer the case and I'm just hoping for widespread totals of around an inch for this event.