Texas Fall 2023

[Edwards Limestone]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1709207944896872942

[Brent]

Already clouds and some sprinkles here. The end is near

[rwfromkansas]

And like that, WPC is now lowering totals again for DFW after going better yesterday.

Getting screwed again. Looks like an inch. Maybe 2 for eastern burbs.

Look, I am glad we are having some pattern changes here. It's just frustrating when the WPC said we would get 3-5 inches a few days ago and now it just keeps whittling back.

[rwfromkansas]

The Euro is actually increasing totals for DFW, so that's something I guess.

[bubba hotep]

The Euro is actually increasing totals for DFW, so that's something I guess.

Back to widespread 2-3" totals. Actually, not that far off from the GFS.

[bubba hotep]

18z HRRR has a few areas of localized heavy rain - SW of Houston, Eastern Portions of DFW, and East Texas near I20.

[weatherdude1108]

I'm not surprised (like others have pointed out) about decreasing QPF as these rain events get closer. Seems to be our life story down here these past several months.


I guess a small silver lining is it'll cool off, which will reduce evaporation of whatever water is in the soils. This frontal passage that scours out moisture is more typical of a neutral/nina. Probably the -PDO's fauit, or the new Nino normal.lol Blah.

Maybe it'll get going in November (as it gets pushed out further and further).


000
FXUS64 KEWX 031915
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
215 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

An upper trough continues sliding to the east this afternoon. Flow
over Texas has become southwesterly. The low level flow is from the
east through southeast re-enforcing the warm, moist airmass over
South Central Texas. So far, the cap is holding over CWA, but
convection has developed to our northwest and there is an MCV to the
southeast. With the very warm, moist airmass in place we expect
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon
and tonight. There is some chance for a strong to severe storm to
move into western Val Verde County, but that chance is very low. The
upper trough will continue moving toward the east destabilizing the
atmosphere over us. Combined with the warm, moist air and strong
heating during the day Wednesday this will generate isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best chances will be over
the east where the deepest moisture will reside. Wednesday night a
strong cold front will move through northwest Texas and showers and
thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front. This activity will
move into our CWA from the north during the evening and spread south
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

A relatively deep upper trough axis will be crossing into the
central CONUS early Thursday, with the southern portion of this axis
in OK/TX offset to the west from the northern portion in a
positively tilted manner. This axis will move across south-central
TX over a cold front that should push through during the day, and
scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast as a result.
These storms will drift southward Thursday and Thursday night, with
high moisture content to work with. However, forecast rainfall
amounts have trended downward over the past 24 to 48 hours,
unfortunately. While widespread 0.2-1" rainfall amounts are likely
for most areas, localized misses as well as higher totals of 2-4+"
will be possible. WPC will update the Day 3 ERO today to downgrade
from Slight (level 2 of 4) to Marginal (1 of 4) given the continued
decrease in model QPF. The best chances for these localized higher
totals are expected to be along our eastern counties from Williamson,
Lee, and Bastrop south and eastward, as well as in the southern
portions of the area right along the Rio Grande. Frontal timing will
be nailed down a little better in subsequent forecasts, but the NAM
is usually a go- to for this scenario and it pushes the leading edge
into our northern Hill Country counties from Llano to Williamson in
the 12-15Z time frame, meaning most of the rain should come during
the daylight hours for all but our southern counties.

Some post-frontal showers/storms may linger over our southern and
western areas Thursday night into Friday, but this is beginning to
look less likely, especially after midnight as we lose the mid-level
PVA-associated lift. This first front won`t wipe out our surface
moisture, but will begin to chip away as mid and upper level
moisture as a continental airmass pushes in. High temperatures
Thursday and Friday should be mainly in the 80s, a welcome sight,
but the best news in the temperature department arrives late Friday
into the weekend as surface high pressure settles in and pushes the
surface moisture out to the gulf. Morning lows Friday in the mid 60s
to low 70s will fall to the mid 50s to mid 60s for Saturday morning,
then into the 50s areawide by Sunday morning. Better yet, highs
Saturday and Sunday should be mainly in the 70s! Although we`re
holding onto some low-end POPs in the forecast over the weekend, it
is likely to be mostly dry. It will be a beautiful weekend for those
who enjoy milder weather, and these temperatures will be the coolest
we`ve experienced since April for most locations! We expect a
gradual warming trend early next week.

[weatherdude1108]

My area is in the green to light green donut hole.

[Portastorm]

Nah, that's actually the Hill Country, weatherdude. We should see about an inch around Austin per King Euro.

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

Nah, that's actually the Hill Country, weatherdude. We should see about an inch around Austin per King Euro.

Yeah, good for us. But they need it more in the hill country, for our water supply's sake. I'm just frustrated, but I have faith we'll all get a good soaker at some point.

Something's gotta give.

[Ntxw]

While it may be disheartening on the precip end, ensemble 500mb pattern going forward resembles warm north/northwest and cool south/southeast...El Nino. Can be comforting to say heat is about over.

[Gotwood]

What is the severe threat looking like?

[tajmahal]

September 2023 at Austin Camp Mabry:

* was by average daily temperature (85.9°), the second–warmest September on record, behind only 2019's extraordinary 88.0°;
* was by average daily high temperature (97.9°), the third–hottest September on record, behind only 2019 (99.8°) and 2011 (98.7°);
* was by average daily low temperature (73.9°), the fifth–warmest September on record;
* tied 1974 for the 35th driest / 89th wettest September on record;
* had eleven days with high temperatures of at least 100°, which is the third–highest September total on record;
* had nine days that failed to cool below 77°, which is the second–highest September total on record;
* broke or tied nine daily records for the hottest high temperature;
* broke or tied four daily records for the warmest low temperature; and
* broke or tied five daily records for the warmest average temperature.

[SoupBone]

For the first time in around 3 months, I can finally say we got measurable rain. Looks like we received about 1.5", and it came in over several hours so it had a chance to be absorbed. Haven't been this happy seeing rain in some time. Tomorrow looks like it's being forecast as 90% chance too, so we'll see.

[cstrunk]

Quite a few models this afternoon have been showing some big QPF totals (in isolated areas) in ETX/NE TX. A lot of it is dependent on WAA storms tomorrow morning through mid-day, follow by the large MCS that pushes through later that gives a more widespread 1-3". But it seems like there's a possibility for some storms that backbuild or train over localized areas in ETX that might really cash in. I'm sure I'll be in the area that gets 1" and a county over gets 6".

I am glad that it looks to still be a pretty widespread rain event for a lot of areas in Texas that need the rain... because there's not much after this for a little while at least.

*Edit - Just read the NWS SHV afternoon discussion and they think the possibility of the heaviest axis of rainfall may be along and north of I-30 in NE TX and into SE OK (they mention 6"+ totals possible)... but based on what I'm seeing from the latest model runs I think it may be closer to the I-20 corridor in ETX.

[Brent]

still been well into the 80s this week so far

[tajmahal]

From the Weather Prediction Center's excessive rainfall discussion on Tuesday at 7:08 pm CDT:

The previous SLGT risk was dropped for the D3 time frame as the QPF forecast has continued to slowly trend down with the heaviest precip now being aligned over the southwest Rio Grande Valley (RGV) between Laredo and Zapata and more localized heavy rainfall to the northeast over east-central TX. There's still an opportunity for an upgrade to a targeted SLGT over the RGV if guidance trends better for convergence over south TX and heavier precip signals re-appear within the population center along the river valley. Until then, the current MRGL should suffice, and was in agreement with some of the local WFO's within the risk area.

...

There's a decreasing signal for heavy rain over parts of southern Texas along the southern periphery of a cold front on Thursday. Upper-level energy associated with the deep parent low in Canada will swing through Texas and provide forcing for showers and thunderstorms to develop across southern portions of the state. The guidance has trended farther north with the favorable jet dynamics, however this does not mean that the excessive threat does not exist as there are still some areas which have received heavy rain recently and are susceptible to flash flooding within the current risk area. The latest guidance shifting the axis of heaviest rainfall into northern Mexico just south of the Rio Grande among other factors has lead to a decrease in risk from a SLGT to a Marginal Risk across the state, extending north into the Arklatex, mainly from residual impact from the morning MCS expected on Thursday.

Note that not all local NWS offices agreed with this downgrade.

[bubba hotep]

Let's go!

[jasons2k]

Just emptied 1.34” from yesterday/overnight. Not a bad start to October.

[rwfromkansas]

DFW keeps pushing east the precipitation totals on their map. I am now barely in 1.5 inches. But, the WPC map looks solid. I think most of us in N TX will be overall happy.

But, I feel quite bad for folks in S TX in dire need.