ATL: SEAN - Remnants - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 92, 2023100800, , BEST, 0, 95N, 190W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038, SPAWNINVEST, al732023 to al922023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal922023.dat

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A low-latitude tropical wave located a few hundred miles off
the west coast of Africa continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by midweek while it moves
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Blake

Old Talking Tropics thread

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A low-latitude tropical wave located several hundred miles to the
south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by midweek while it
moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

More lower in latitude.

AL, 92, 2023100812, , BEST, 0, 82N, 208W, 25, 1010, DB

[WalterWhite]

Could we legitimately see a Cape Verde storm in November at this rate?

[zal0phus]

Could we legitimately see a Cape Verde storm in November at this rate?

At this time of year I feel like it would just remain undeveloped until it enters the Caribbean, at which point only then would we need to worry

[ScottNAtlanta]

This looks to be organizing pretty quickly. It looks like a depression now.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of
organization in association with a low-latitude tropical wave
located several hundred miles to the south of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by midweek while it moves westward to west-northwestward across
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF/HMON like it, HAFS not so much. I think we can see a strong TS, perhaps a Cat 1 but probably not much more than that. I think this could be the last Cape Verde storm of the season (although I wouldn't be surprised to see a wave develop further west at some point)

[cycloneye]

Even more lower in latitude at 18z.

AL, 92, 2023100818, , BEST, 0, 77N, 228W, 25, 1010, DB

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/zoom_earth/status/1711119093053489410

[abajan]

Even more lower in latitude at 18z.

AL, 92, 2023100818, , BEST, 0, 77N, 228W, 25, 1010, DB

[cycloneye]

I think at 00z, it will be further south.

[abajan]

This looks to be organizing pretty quickly. It looks like a depression now.

Hopefully you're right, because the quicker it develops, the more likely it is to "feel the weakness" to its north and turn northwest and head safely into the open Atlantic and threaten no land areas (except perhaps for the Azores). However, according to the Best Track data it has been losing latitude over at least the last 30 hours, and the Coriolis effect at its current latitude is very slight. This will help retard development of the disturbance, probably resulting in it getting farther west than previously expected.

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A low-latitude tropical wave located several hundred miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form around midweek while it moves
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[abajan]

Apparently, the previous Best Track data have been adjusted.

AL, 92, 2023100900, , BEST, 0, 83N, 238W, 25, 1010, DB

[cycloneye]

Apparently, the previous Best Track data have been adjusted.

AL, 92, 2023100900, , BEST, 0, 83N, 238W, 25, 1010, DB

Yes. Bigtime adjustements to the whole file.

AL, 92, 2023100800, , BEST, 0, 87N, 186W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2023100806, , BEST, 0, 84N, 197W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 92, 2023100812, , BEST, 0, 83N, 208W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 220, 110, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 92, 2023100818, , BEST, 0, 83N, 223W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 92, 2023100900, , BEST, 0, 83N, 238W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,

[Landy]

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A low-latitude tropical wave located several hundred miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. This system has become better organized
since yesterday, and environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system during the next several days.
A tropical depression is likely to form around midweek while it
moves west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.