WPAC: BOLAVEN - Post-Tropical
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Hurricane2022
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Severe Tropical Storm
Last edited by Hurricane2022 on Tue Jan 23, 2024 9:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143865
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Severe Tropical Storm
WDPN32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN)
WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 10.7N 151.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 427 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
OVER THE PAST DAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE TUTT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND IMPROVED BROAD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW NOW EVIDENT
IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF 29-30
C COUPLED WITH A POOL OF DEEP WARM WATER ARE AIDING IN THE FORMATION
OF AN IMPRESSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE (CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS -83 C) OVER THE CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AS DEPICTED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A 081757Z SSMIS 91 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER WITH MULTIPLE, FRAGMENTED BANDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS TIME IS THE
ELONGATED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED NATURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CORE CONVECTION
(HOOK FEATURE EVIDENT IN THE SSMIS IMAGE). THUS, THERE IS MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
POSITION. THIS POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHT SHIFTS IN
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM
BECOMES MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
50 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, WHICH IS WITHIN THE RANGE OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 081537Z
CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 081730Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE
FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 24, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE FURTHER WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT POSITIONED TO
THE EAST AND INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 OVER WARM SST AND OVER A POOL
OF DEEP WARM WATER, WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF
GUAM. AFTER TAU 24, THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY ALIGNED, WHICH WILL FAVOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) DURING THE SYSTEM'S PASSAGE OVER THE NORTHERN
MARIANAS. PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 70 KNOTS TO
90 KNOTS DURING THIS PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL RI WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU 48
AS THE SYSTEM RECURVES NORTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR, WITH
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AFTER TAU 96, TS 15W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH A 65 NM TO 75 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM TAU 36
TO TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY, THE MAJORITY OF THE EPS AND GEFS SOLUTIONS
NOW TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTH OF GUAM. IN GENERAL, THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS SHOW A NARROW SWATH FROM ABOUT 14N TO 16N LATITUDE THUS
THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU
72. THE MESOSCALE MODELS (COAMPS-TC AND HAFS-A) SUPPORT RI AFTER
TAU 24 CONTINUING THROUGH TAU 84 WITH PEAK INTENSITIES OF 120 KNOTS
(HAFS-A AT TAU 60) TO 145 KNOTS (COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) AT TAU 120).
ADDITIONALLY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE IS TRIGGERED (CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST DAY) REFLECTING THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE
081200Z COAMPS-TC INTENSITY PROBABILITY DATA ALSO PROVIDES EXCELLENT
SUPPORT FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24 WITH PROBABILITIES
PEAKING AT 95 PERCENT FROM TAU 42 TO TAU 66.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN)
WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 10.7N 151.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 427 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
OVER THE PAST DAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE TUTT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND IMPROVED BROAD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW NOW EVIDENT
IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF 29-30
C COUPLED WITH A POOL OF DEEP WARM WATER ARE AIDING IN THE FORMATION
OF AN IMPRESSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE (CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS -83 C) OVER THE CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AS DEPICTED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A 081757Z SSMIS 91 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER WITH MULTIPLE, FRAGMENTED BANDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS TIME IS THE
ELONGATED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED NATURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CORE CONVECTION
(HOOK FEATURE EVIDENT IN THE SSMIS IMAGE). THUS, THERE IS MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
POSITION. THIS POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHT SHIFTS IN
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM
BECOMES MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
50 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, WHICH IS WITHIN THE RANGE OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 081537Z
CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 081730Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE
FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 24, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE FURTHER WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT POSITIONED TO
THE EAST AND INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 OVER WARM SST AND OVER A POOL
OF DEEP WARM WATER, WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF
GUAM. AFTER TAU 24, THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY ALIGNED, WHICH WILL FAVOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) DURING THE SYSTEM'S PASSAGE OVER THE NORTHERN
MARIANAS. PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 70 KNOTS TO
90 KNOTS DURING THIS PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL RI WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU 48
AS THE SYSTEM RECURVES NORTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR, WITH
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AFTER TAU 96, TS 15W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH A 65 NM TO 75 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM TAU 36
TO TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY, THE MAJORITY OF THE EPS AND GEFS SOLUTIONS
NOW TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTH OF GUAM. IN GENERAL, THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS SHOW A NARROW SWATH FROM ABOUT 14N TO 16N LATITUDE THUS
THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU
72. THE MESOSCALE MODELS (COAMPS-TC AND HAFS-A) SUPPORT RI AFTER
TAU 24 CONTINUING THROUGH TAU 84 WITH PEAK INTENSITIES OF 120 KNOTS
(HAFS-A AT TAU 60) TO 145 KNOTS (COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) AT TAU 120).
ADDITIONALLY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE IS TRIGGERED (CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST DAY) REFLECTING THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE
081200Z COAMPS-TC INTENSITY PROBABILITY DATA ALSO PROVIDES EXCELLENT
SUPPORT FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24 WITH PROBABILITIES
PEAKING AT 95 PERCENT FROM TAU 42 TO TAU 66.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143865
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Severe Tropical Storm
WDPN32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 11.2N 149.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 303 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB,
GUAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHT FORMATIVE BANDS INTERSECTING TOWARD
AN OBSCURED BUT DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE GRADUAL
CONSOLIDATION.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 60 KTS AT 090311Z
CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 090530Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 15W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND
WILL COME TO WITHIN 61NM OF ANDERSEN AFB JUST AFTER TAU 24 AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEAST OF GUAM. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL
RECEDE EASTWARD AND ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD
TOWARD IWO TO. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY
THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, FUELED
BY INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND BY TAU 72 WILL PEAK AT 125KTS.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 90KTS BY TAU 120. ALSO, AROUND TAU 96, BOLAVEN WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, AND BY TAU 120, WILL TRANSFORM
INTO A HURRICANE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 156NM BY TAU 72 THEN TO 241NM
BY TAU 120 SANS NAVGEM, THE EXTREME LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK - LAID TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS
TO OFFSET NAVGEM - UP TO TAU 72, THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 11.2N 149.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 303 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB,
GUAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHT FORMATIVE BANDS INTERSECTING TOWARD
AN OBSCURED BUT DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE GRADUAL
CONSOLIDATION.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 60 KTS AT 090311Z
CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 090530Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 15W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND
WILL COME TO WITHIN 61NM OF ANDERSEN AFB JUST AFTER TAU 24 AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEAST OF GUAM. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL
RECEDE EASTWARD AND ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD
TOWARD IWO TO. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY
THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, FUELED
BY INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND BY TAU 72 WILL PEAK AT 125KTS.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 90KTS BY TAU 120. ALSO, AROUND TAU 96, BOLAVEN WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, AND BY TAU 120, WILL TRANSFORM
INTO A HURRICANE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 156NM BY TAU 72 THEN TO 241NM
BY TAU 120 SANS NAVGEM, THE EXTREME LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK - LAID TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS
TO OFFSET NAVGEM - UP TO TAU 72, THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143865
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Severe Tropical Storm
WDPN32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 12.0N 148.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 234 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB,
GUAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED DEEP FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDS
INTERSECTING TOWARD AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
A 091114Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AND CORROBORATED BY A DOPPLER RADAR FIX
FROM NWS WFO GUAM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT IMAGE AND A RECENT SAR PASS AND
SUPPORTED BY AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE
OVERALL 6-HR SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 091130Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 15W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND
WILL COME TO WITHIN 62NM OF ANDERSEN AFB AROUND 100700Z AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEAST OF GUAM. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL
RECEDE EASTWARD, ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD
TOWARD IWO TO. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY THEN
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, FUELED BY
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND BY TAU 72 WILL PEAK AT 125KTS.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 90KTS BY TAU 120. ALSO, AROUND TAU 96, BOLAVEN WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, AND BY TAU 120, WILL TRANSFORM
INTO A HURRICANE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 135NM BY TAU 72 THEN TO 165NM
BY TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK. THERE IS ONLY
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
RELATED TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 12.0N 148.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 234 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB,
GUAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED DEEP FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDS
INTERSECTING TOWARD AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
A 091114Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AND CORROBORATED BY A DOPPLER RADAR FIX
FROM NWS WFO GUAM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT IMAGE AND A RECENT SAR PASS AND
SUPPORTED BY AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE
OVERALL 6-HR SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 091130Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 15W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND
WILL COME TO WITHIN 62NM OF ANDERSEN AFB AROUND 100700Z AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEAST OF GUAM. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL
RECEDE EASTWARD, ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD
TOWARD IWO TO. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY THEN
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, FUELED BY
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND BY TAU 72 WILL PEAK AT 125KTS.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 90KTS BY TAU 120. ALSO, AROUND TAU 96, BOLAVEN WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, AND BY TAU 120, WILL TRANSFORM
INTO A HURRICANE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 135NM BY TAU 72 THEN TO 165NM
BY TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK. THERE IS ONLY
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
RELATED TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Severe Tropical Storm
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Sciencerocks
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Sciencerocks
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Sciencerocks
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Sciencerocks
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Sciencerocks
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon
T2315(Bolaven)
Issued at 2023/10/10 00:45 UTC
Analysis at 10/10 00 UTC
Grade TY
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N13°40′ (13.7°)
E146°35′ (146.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 95 km (50 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 500 km (270 NM)
Issued at 2023/10/10 00:45 UTC
Analysis at 10/10 00 UTC
Grade TY
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N13°40′ (13.7°)
E146°35′ (146.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 95 km (50 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 500 km (270 NM)
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon
Trying to do RI?
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon
WDPN32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.3N 145.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 21 NM NORTHEAST OF ROTA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY)
15W (BOLAVEN) SHOWING PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST (CDO) REGION, INTERMITTENTLY FLARING SOUTH OF THE MOSTLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP
CONVECTION EXHIBIT OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS AND GREAT RADIAL EXTENT, UP
TO 380NM NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A 100600Z ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING FROM
GUAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (PGUM) REPORTED 35KTS AT THE 850MB LEVEL
AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT OTHER THAN THE 850MB TO 640MB LAYER REFLECTING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 80 PERCENT. STATION WINDS FROM SAIPAN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (PGSN) AT 100554Z REPORTED EASTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 36KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 52KTS. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LLCC, PGUM STATION OBSERVATIONS OF 100627Z REPORTED 32KTS WESTERLY
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS. AS OF 100600Z, THE SYSTEM HAD
NOT YET REACHED THE CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO THE MARIANAS ISLANDS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RADAR
FIX AT 100530Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON GREAT ALIGNMENT BETWEEN MULTIPLE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
LISTED BELOW. UNFORTUNATELY, RADAR VELOCITY COULD NOT BE EXAMINED
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED RADAR FIX DUE TO LACK OF DATA AT THIS
LOCATION (BLANKED OUT CIRCLE ALONG GATE INTERVAL). HOWEVER, A
RADAR VELOCITY OF 69KTS IS OBSERVED WHERE THERE IS DATA NEAREST THE
FIX (WITHIN 10NM).
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 66 KTS AT 100600Z
CIMSS ADT: 67 KTS AT 100600Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 15W IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOMEWHAT
ERRATICALLY, STEPPING NORTH AND WEST IN DISTINCT INTERVALS AS THE
VORTEX CONTINUES TO SYMMETRIZE, BUT WILL GENERALLY TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS THE STR TO THE NORTH
RAPIDLY RE-CENTERS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF
THE RIDGE RAPIDLY ERODES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH,
TY 15W WILL SLOW DOWN TO A TRACK SPEED OF AROUND 9KTS AND ROUND THE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 36. AFTER ROUNDING THE RIDGE TY 15W WILL
RAPIDLY PICK UP THE PACE AND SHOOT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST AND DEEP TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS GENTLY EASED AND WEAKENED, WHICH IN
TIME WILL ALLOW THE VORTEX TO FURTHER SYMMETRIZE. ONCE FURTHER
CONSOLIDATED, NEAR TAU 12, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TAP INTO A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48
UNTIL THE PEAK INTENSITY IS REACHED PRIOR TO TAU 72. FOLLOWING
ROUNDING THE STR AXIS, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. TY 15W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 120 AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE 26C ISOTHERM AND
COMES IN PHASE WITH A 500MB TROUGH AND EMBEDS UNDER A 200MB JET MAX.
MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TY 15W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST, ROUND THE
STR AXIS NEAR TAU 36, AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK
BY TAU 48 AND MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 120. HOWEVER, THERE EXISTS
PROMINENT UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK SPEED AND MOTION BETWEEN JTWC
CONSENSUS MEMBERS, NAMELY THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. BETWEEN THE TWO NAMED, A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
OF 69NM AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 158NM IS PRESENT BY TAU 72. THIS
SPREAD BECOMES EXACERBATED BY TAU 120, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF
330NM AND AN ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 740NM. DESPITE THE DISAGREEMENT,
THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS REFLECT GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL,
CONTRIBUTING TO THE TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF HIGH THROUGH TAU
72 AND MEDIUM THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW THEREAFTER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.3N 145.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 21 NM NORTHEAST OF ROTA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY)
15W (BOLAVEN) SHOWING PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST (CDO) REGION, INTERMITTENTLY FLARING SOUTH OF THE MOSTLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP
CONVECTION EXHIBIT OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS AND GREAT RADIAL EXTENT, UP
TO 380NM NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A 100600Z ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING FROM
GUAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (PGUM) REPORTED 35KTS AT THE 850MB LEVEL
AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT OTHER THAN THE 850MB TO 640MB LAYER REFLECTING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 80 PERCENT. STATION WINDS FROM SAIPAN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (PGSN) AT 100554Z REPORTED EASTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 36KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 52KTS. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LLCC, PGUM STATION OBSERVATIONS OF 100627Z REPORTED 32KTS WESTERLY
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS. AS OF 100600Z, THE SYSTEM HAD
NOT YET REACHED THE CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO THE MARIANAS ISLANDS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RADAR
FIX AT 100530Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON GREAT ALIGNMENT BETWEEN MULTIPLE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
LISTED BELOW. UNFORTUNATELY, RADAR VELOCITY COULD NOT BE EXAMINED
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED RADAR FIX DUE TO LACK OF DATA AT THIS
LOCATION (BLANKED OUT CIRCLE ALONG GATE INTERVAL). HOWEVER, A
RADAR VELOCITY OF 69KTS IS OBSERVED WHERE THERE IS DATA NEAREST THE
FIX (WITHIN 10NM).
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 66 KTS AT 100600Z
CIMSS ADT: 67 KTS AT 100600Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 15W IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOMEWHAT
ERRATICALLY, STEPPING NORTH AND WEST IN DISTINCT INTERVALS AS THE
VORTEX CONTINUES TO SYMMETRIZE, BUT WILL GENERALLY TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS THE STR TO THE NORTH
RAPIDLY RE-CENTERS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF
THE RIDGE RAPIDLY ERODES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH,
TY 15W WILL SLOW DOWN TO A TRACK SPEED OF AROUND 9KTS AND ROUND THE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 36. AFTER ROUNDING THE RIDGE TY 15W WILL
RAPIDLY PICK UP THE PACE AND SHOOT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST AND DEEP TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS GENTLY EASED AND WEAKENED, WHICH IN
TIME WILL ALLOW THE VORTEX TO FURTHER SYMMETRIZE. ONCE FURTHER
CONSOLIDATED, NEAR TAU 12, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TAP INTO A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48
UNTIL THE PEAK INTENSITY IS REACHED PRIOR TO TAU 72. FOLLOWING
ROUNDING THE STR AXIS, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. TY 15W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 120 AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE 26C ISOTHERM AND
COMES IN PHASE WITH A 500MB TROUGH AND EMBEDS UNDER A 200MB JET MAX.
MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TY 15W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST, ROUND THE
STR AXIS NEAR TAU 36, AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK
BY TAU 48 AND MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 120. HOWEVER, THERE EXISTS
PROMINENT UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK SPEED AND MOTION BETWEEN JTWC
CONSENSUS MEMBERS, NAMELY THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. BETWEEN THE TWO NAMED, A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
OF 69NM AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 158NM IS PRESENT BY TAU 72. THIS
SPREAD BECOMES EXACERBATED BY TAU 120, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF
330NM AND AN ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 740NM. DESPITE THE DISAGREEMENT,
THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS REFLECT GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL,
CONTRIBUTING TO THE TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF HIGH THROUGH TAU
72 AND MEDIUM THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW THEREAFTER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon
Exploding in no time.
Looks like we're waking up to at least a category 3.
Looks like we're waking up to at least a category 3.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon
Bolaven is about to open its eyes
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Sciencerocks
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon
Absolute monster incoming. This might have a chance to challenge Mawar for the strongest storm of the year
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon
T-numbers are going to shoot through the roof once we get positive eye temps with that CDG ring. Maybe another 155+ kt storm incoming.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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