ATL: SEAN - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[ScottNAtlanta]

Lots of the models have this going WNW to NW then a turn to the west in about 3-5 days

[abajan]

Lots of the models have this going WNW to NW then a turn to the west in about 3-5 days
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/92L_tracks_latest.png

Perhaps that partly explains the marked shift in orientation of the shaded area indicating the 7-day-formation-chance region.

2PM yesterday:




2PM today:

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward across
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[abajan]

AL, 92, 2023101018, , BEST, 0, 97N, 300W, 30, 1008, LO

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2023101100, , BEST, 0, 96N, 314W, 30, 1008, LO,

[zzzh]

Upgraded to TD19.

[cycloneye]

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

Sprawling nature will likely work against intensification in short term. Don’t see this getting named before unfavorable conditions kick in. Sean’s gonna have to wait until either later this month or 2030. Next!

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like we'll have Sean soon

19L NINETEEN 231011 0600 10.1N 32.6W ATL 35 1006

[Subtrop]

AL, 19, 2023101106, , BEST, 0, 101N, 326W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEAN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,

[al78]

Another weak storm that has little prospects to add to the collection. That is now a 3:1 ratio of named storms to hurricanes, quite high. Despite the very warm SSTs this year the MDR hasn't been favourable for tropical cyclone intensification.

[abajan]

Sprawling nature will likely work against intensification in short term. Don’t see this getting named before unfavorable conditions kick in. Sean’s gonna have to wait until either later this month or 2030. Next!

And not even 6 hours later it's Sean.

[abajan]

Another weak storm that has little prospects to add to the collection. That is now a 3:1 ratio of named storms to hurricanes, quite high. Despite the very warm SSTs this year the MDR hasn't been favourable for tropical cyclone intensification.

Well, it is an El Niño year.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Another weak storm that has little prospects to add to the collection. That is now a 3:1 ratio of named storms to hurricanes, quite high. Despite the very warm SSTs this year the MDR hasn't been favourable for tropical cyclone intensification.

It is almost mid-October of an El Nino season. Even in the best of seasons you don't really expect development in this area this time of year. Anything we get out of the MDR is icing on the cake. We get a weak TS and perhaps another one behind it. Although it may not be to most this is pretty impressive to me.

[Nimbus]

Something to watch but the system coming off the African coast now will make it further west.
West coast of Florida doesn't need any western Caribbean waves developing this time of year.

[ChrisH-UK]

Sean has a lot of convection bubbling up and should be in a low shear environment, I think it might do better than what we think. The 06z GFS run has it rolling in to the Caribbean, this could become interesting.

Source - https://col.st/NjH1X

[tolakram]

Another weak storm that has little prospects to add to the collection. That is now a 3:1 ratio of named storms to hurricanes, quite high. Despite the very warm SSTs this year the MDR hasn't been favourable for tropical cyclone intensification.

2 cat 4's and a cat 5 in an el nino year seems to dispute this. A favorable Atlantic during an el nino year seems like it would behave just like this.