WPAC: BOLAVEN - Post-Tropical

[Teban54]

[mrbagyo]

Center Temp : +21.4C Cloud Region Temp : -76.8C

[mrbagyo]

2023OCT11 003000 6.2 939.7 119.8 6.2 6.1 7.4 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.42 -78.20 EYE 14 IR 51.6 17.17 -143.95 ARCHER HIM-9 20.4
2023OCT11 010000 6.2 939.7 119.8 6.2 6.0 7.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 21.12 -77.55 EYE 15 IR 51.6 17.26 -143.91 ARCHER HIM-9 20.5
2023OCT11 013000 6.2 939.7 119.8 6.1 6.1 7.2 1.3T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF 21.38 -76.82 EYE 15 IR 51.6 17.33 -143.87 ARCHER HIM-9 20.6
2023OCT11 020000 6.2 939.6 119.8 6.1 6.1 7.3 1.3T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF 22.72 -77.04 EYE 15 IR 51.6 17.44 -143.83 ARCHER HIM-9 20.7
2023OCT11 022000 6.2 939.6 119.8 6.1 6.1 7.3 1.3T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF 21.74 -77.41 EYE 15 IR 51.6 17.54 -143.78 ARCHER HIM-9 20.8

[mrbagyo]

[Foxfires]

TPPN11 PGTW 110006

A. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN)

B. 10/2330Z

C. 16.98N

D. 144.13E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.5. MET YIELDS 6.0. PT YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/2044Z 16.33N 144.40E SSMS


RAE

No.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/619419338151034911/1161457988494700654/IMG_1856.gif?ex=65385f0b&is=6525ea0b&hm=8626bd803c513db66ef267618e39483c66e02be7b6502a70c63e545039f03b9c&

How much you wanna bet this is never operationally classified as a Cat 5?

I'll bet you a lot!

You lost lol

[doomhaMwx]

Eye temp from polar-orbiting satellites is already as high as 25-26C.

 https://twitter.com/zeb199818/status/1711964631319859367



 https://twitter.com/CyanideCN_/status/1711926035078578529

[1900hurricane]

I dig it.

[doomhaMwx]

Looks like the beginnings of a secondary eyewall on the latest MW scan.

[ElectricStorm]

15W BOLAVEN 231011 0600 18.2N 143.4E WPAC 145 915

I think this is a bit too low. I'd probably go 150-155kts

[doomhaMwx]

T2315(Bolaven)

Issued at 2023/10/11 06:50 UTC
Analysis at 10/11 06 UTC
Grade TY
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N18°05′ (18.1°)
E143°25′ (143.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 110 km (60 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 560 km (300 NM)

Forecast for 10/11 18 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N19°50′ (19.8°)
E142°55′ (142.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 210 km (115 NM)

[Hayabusa]

15W BOLAVEN 231011 0600 18.2N 143.4E WPAC 145 915

I think this is a bit too low. I'd probably go 150-155kts

Maybe by 12z if the eye retains at near or equal 20C+ or if CI is at 7.5

2023OCT11 070000 7.2 914.0 146.0 7.2 7.4 7.5 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.92 -78.50 EYE 15 IR 83.5 18.23 -143.30 ARCHER HIM-9 21.5

[doomhaMwx]

A moat is becoming more pronounced around the eyewall, and CIMSS M-PERC product indicates that an EWRC is highly likely to commence soon.

Assuming an EWRC goes smoothly, Bolaven can still easily re-intensify given that it has yet to experience the most favorable upper-level environment in its life (improving poleward outflow in the next 24 hours).

[doomhaMwx]

T7.5 from JTWC

TPPN10 PGTW 110908

A. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN)

B. 11/0840Z

C. 18.45N

D. 143.16E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.5.
MET YIELDS 6.0. PT IS CONSTRAINED TO 7.0. DBO DT, AS THE CMG CANOPY
HAS PERSISTED OVER 6 HOURS, JUSTIFYING BREAKING 2.5 T NUMBER CHANGE
IN 24HR CONSTRAINT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
11/0414Z 17.53N 145.07E AMS2
11/0414Z 18.02N 143.55E AMS2
11/0414Z 18.02N 143.55E AMS2
11/0414Z 18.02N 143.55E AMS2


CVACH

[Hayabusa]

Nice ADT value

[Hayabusa]

D-PRINT 162 kts

[Hayabusa]

JMA 09Z upgrades to 905 mb, new peak forecast 900 mb, also 2023's Bolaven is now officially stronger than 2012's Bolaven (910 mb) (actually it already did at 06z in terms of winds)

T2315(Bolaven)
Issued at 2023/10/11 09:45 UTC
Analysis at 10/11 09 UTC
Grade TY
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N18°30′ (18.5°)
E143°10′ (143.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 110 km (60 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 560 km (300 NM)
Forecast for 10/11 21 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°10′ (20.2°)
E143°00′ (143.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 900 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 210 km (115 NM)

[mrbagyo]

JMA now at 905 hpa / 110 knots - projected peak is 900 hPa / 115 knots

CMA already has it at 900 hPa / 68 m/s

I think JTWC would up the intensity to 155 by 12z

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN11 PGTW 111149

A. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN)

B. 11/1130Z

C. 18.75N

D. 143.01E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.5.
MET YIELDS 6.0. PT YIELDS 7.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


EL-NAZLY

[Yellow Evan]

DPrint probably on the money here maybe a little low. Eye temperature has been over 20C for 9 hours and CDO has expanded outward overnight.

[aspen]

I think this has probably peaked at 160-165 kt, due to how long it’s maintained a >20C eye and CMG ring with spots of CDG. You don’t get a 26C eye from just a run-of-the-mill Cat 5.