Texas Fall 2023

[Ralph's Weather]

A nice cooler than forecasted day with a high in the upper 60s in Tyler.

[Cpv17]

Looks like we're back to mostly "near normal" for precip in today's 6 to 14 day CPC outlooks, compared to "above normal" precipitation yesterday in the outlooks. I mean, "normal" for October is a couple inches or so, not bad.
Not the same as a "normal" precip July.lol

Models look pretty blah for rain, especially the GFS. Definitely don’t see anything worth getting excited about. Actually rainfall looks below normal overall if you ask me.

[Ntxw]

Along and east of I-35 is socked in clouds and much cooler, 10F or so cooler than to the west. West of I-35 is heating up quickly and might approach mid 90s today.

[CaptinCrunch]

Until the -PDO trends positive you can kiss the El Nino rain train goodbye. Our only rain chances are going to come via cold fronts and above average humidity. The tropicial systems off western Mexico curved much further south and sent that moisture over south Texas. We need those systems to recurve over northern Baja Mexico and stream over northern Texas to see those benifits.

[CaptinCrunch]

Along and east of I-35 is socked in clouds and much cooler, 10F or so cooler than to the west. West of I-35 is heating up quickly and might approach mid 90s today.

The extra cloud cover over NTX has been very welcome.

[Cpv17]

Until the -PDO trends positive you can kiss theat El Nino rain train goodbye. Our only rain chances are going to come via cold fronts and above average humidity. The tropicial systems off western Mexico curved much further south and sent that moisture over south Texas. We need those systems to recurve over northern Baja Mexico and stream over northern Texas to see those benifits.

If that’s the case, we can probably kiss our winter fun goodbye as well. I’ve also noticed the waters near the Gulf of Alaska are near normal. Really need those waters to get above normal.

[Itryatgolf]

Until the -PDO trends positive you can kiss theat El Nino rain train goodbye. Our only rain chances are going to come via cold fronts and above average humidity. The tropicial systems off western Mexico curved much further south and sent that moisture over south Texas. We need those systems to recurve over northern Baja Mexico and stream over northern Texas to see those benifits.

If that’s the case, we can probably kiss our winter fun goodbye as well. I’ve also noticed the waters near the Gulf of Alaska are near normal. Really need those waters to get above normal.

We may have both niña and niño this winter as strange as that sounds.

[Ntxw]

Until the -PDO trends positive you can kiss theat El Nino rain train goodbye. Our only rain chances are going to come via cold fronts and above average humidity. The tropicial systems off western Mexico curved much further south and sent that moisture over south Texas. We need those systems to recurve over northern Baja Mexico and stream over northern Texas to see those benifits.

If that’s the case, we can probably kiss our winter fun goodbye as well. I’ve also noticed the waters near the Gulf of Alaska are near normal. Really need those waters to get above normal.

We may have both niña and niño this winter as strange as that sounds.

It's actually not a bad thing. I've noted a few times before, it's not great for heavy rains, but it's actually pretty good for winter the -PDO as long as it's not overwhelming. The cold tongue with an El Nino can produce Alaskan ridging rather than GOA ridge. But agree there will be bouts of Nina like periods alongside Nino STJ. Wet, moist, humid air is warm air and like the big Super Ninos is too warm. -PDO has some more dominant dry, continental air that is colder.



The bigger concern is overall the Oceans are too warm. What role that plays is to be seen, it's been messing with a lot of cycles and oscillations. The typical indexes we love to use consists of SSTa warm here and cold there, but now it's warm here and even warmer there causing a -PDO but not in the sense that there is a lot of cold water in the NEPAC like in a historical -PDO, there isn't.

[weatherdude1108]

If that’s the case, we can probably kiss our winter fun goodbye as well. I’ve also noticed the waters near the Gulf of Alaska are near normal. Really need those waters to get above normal.

We may have both niña and niño this winter as strange as that sounds.

It's actually not a bad thing. I've noted a few times before, it's not great for heavy rains, but it's actually pretty good for winter the -PDO as long as it's not overwhelming. The cold tongue with an El Nino can produce Alaskan ridging rather than GOA ridge. But agree there will be bouts of Nina like periods alongside Nino STJ. Wet, moist, humid air is warm air and like the big Super Ninos is too warm. -PDO has some more dominant dry, continental air that is colder.

https://i.imgur.com/SUqYfCe.png

The bigger concern is overall the Oceans are too warm. What role that plays is to be seen, it's been messing with a lot of cycles and oscillations. The typical indexes we love to use consists of SSTa warm here and cold there, but now it's warm here and even warmer there causing a -PDO but not in the sense that there is a lot of cold water in the NEPAC like in a historical -PDO, there isn't.

Bummer. Not good news. Lake Travis is the lowest I've ever seen it.

Of course it has been known to fill back up in a matter of days if a storm is parked in the right spot.
https://hydromet.lcra.org/Documents/200 ... report.pdf

https://hydromet.lcra.org/riverreport/

[Itryatgolf]

If that’s the case, we can probably kiss our winter fun goodbye as well. I’ve also noticed the waters near the Gulf of Alaska are near normal. Really need those waters to get above normal.

We may have both niña and niño this winter as strange as that sounds.

It's actually not a bad thing. I've noted a few times before, it's not great for heavy rains, but it's actually pretty good for winter the -PDO as long as it's not overwhelming. The cold tongue with an El Nino can produce Alaskan ridging rather than GOA ridge. But agree there will be bouts of Nina like periods alongside Nino STJ. Wet, moist, humid air is warm air and like the big Super Ninos is too warm. -PDO has some more dominant dry, continental air that is colder.

https://i.imgur.com/SUqYfCe.png

The bigger concern is overall the Oceans are too warm. What role that plays is to be seen, it's been messing with a lot of cycles and oscillations. The typical indexes we love to use consists of SSTa warm here and cold there, but now it's warm here and even warmer there causing a -PDO but not in the sense that there is a lot of cold water in the NEPAC like in a historical -PDO, there isn't.

The -pdo isn't great for winter if it stays this negative so we should hope for a trend less negative moving forward. I read at another forum that if the pdo don't couple, we could have a chance this winter at some cold, but the pdo is keeping the niño from coupling as well because the pdo is really negative currently

[Ntxw]

We may have both niña and niño this winter as strange as that sounds.

It's actually not a bad thing. I've noted a few times before, it's not great for heavy rains, but it's actually pretty good for winter the -PDO as long as it's not overwhelming. The cold tongue with an El Nino can produce Alaskan ridging rather than GOA ridge. But agree there will be bouts of Nina like periods alongside Nino STJ. Wet, moist, humid air is warm air and like the big Super Ninos is too warm. -PDO has some more dominant dry, continental air that is colder.

https://i.imgur.com/SUqYfCe.png

The bigger concern is overall the Oceans are too warm. What role that plays is to be seen, it's been messing with a lot of cycles and oscillations. The typical indexes we love to use consists of SSTa warm here and cold there, but now it's warm here and even warmer there causing a -PDO but not in the sense that there is a lot of cold water in the NEPAC like in a historical -PDO, there isn't.

The -pdo isn't great for winter if it stays this negative so we should hope for a trend less negative moving forward. I read at another forum that if the pdo don't couple, we could have a chance this winter at some cold, but the pdo is keeping the niño from coupling as well because the pdo is really negative currently

It isn't for the coast, but for the interior west and plains we prefer neutral to slightly neg PDO. 2015-2018 all the winters were exceptionally warm with +PDO here. -PDO since 2020 has provided cold shots for us.



Like I mentioned before if you have a +PDO and strong El Nino, you're going to see persistent posts from wxman57 that it isn't cold in Canada.

[Ntxw]

Clouds are hanging on I-35, though trying to clear. Temperature contrast between sunny and cloudy.

[weatherdude1108]

Clouds are hanging on I-35, though trying to clear. Temperature contrast between sunny and cloudy.

https://i.imgur.com/QOLTqxt.gif

https://i.imgur.com/CidOrKg.png

Yeah, it didn't get above 72 at my house yesterday, and struggling to get out of the 70s today! Slightly below normal for a change.

[Edwards Limestone]

[tajmahal]

The PDO index this year:
–2.94...September (22nd lowest on record)
–2.46...August
–2.52...July
–2.53...June
–2.41...May
–3.07...April (14th lowest on record)
–2.45...March
–1.65...February
–1.25...January

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

[bubba hotep]

Clouds are hanging on I-35, though trying to clear. Temperature contrast between sunny and cloudy.

https://i.imgur.com/QOLTqxt.gif

https://i.imgur.com/CidOrKg.png

Was just coming to post that. Now some 90s out near the Falls and areas to the SW of there.

[Brent]

Lmao I see Tulsa is barely warmer than here in London. Didn't see that coming this soon. Otherwise pretty much what I expected for mid October not much sun

[gpsnowman]

Lmao I see Tulsa is barely warmer than here in London. Didn't see that coming this soon. Otherwise pretty much what I expected for mid October not much sun

See if King Chuck can deliver us some rain and cold. It's the least he could do.

[weatherdude1108]

The PDO index this year:
–2.94...September
–2.46...August
–2.52...July
–2.53...June
–2.41...May
–3.07...April
–2.45...March
–1.65...February
–1.25...January

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

I guess the last time it was this high in September was in 2012 at --2.99(?). Also 1933 at --2.97(?).

[tajmahal]

The PDO index this year:
–2.94...September
–2.46...August
–2.52...July
–2.53...June
–2.41...May
–3.07...April
–2.45...March
–1.65...February
–1.25...January

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

I guess the last time it was this high in September was in 2012 at --2.99(?). Also 1933 at --2.97(?).

Lowest PDO index values on record (1854–2023):
..(1)...–3.65...July 1950
..(1)...–3.65...April 1859
..(3)...–3.41...June 1890
..(4)...–3.35...October 1955
..(4)...–3.35...May 1894
..(6)...–3.32...July 1933
..(7)...–3.20...March 1894
..(8)...–3.19...May 1950
..(9)...–3.18...July 1882
(10)...–3.17...February 1949
(11)...–3.15...April 1894
(11)...–3.15...June 1880
(13)...–3.11...October 2021
(14)...–3.07...April 2023
(15)...–2.99...September 2012
(16)...–2.98...August 1950
(16)...–2.98...July 1894
(18)...–2.97...September 1933
(18)...–2.97...May 1880
(20)...–2.95...November 2011

January lowest on record:
–2.82...1949

September lowest on record:
(1)...–2.99...2012
(2)...–2.97...1933
(3)...–2.94...2023 (21st lowest on record, regardless of month)
(4)...–2.50...2011

December lowest on record:
–2.71...2021

Highest PDO index values on record (1854–2023):
..(1)...3.84...June 1869
..(2)...3.78...July 1869
..(3)...3.56...May 1869
..(4)...3.22...August 1941
..(5)...3.12...December 1904
..(6)...3.04...July 1902
..(7)...3.01...July 1941
..(8)...2.86...February 1941
..(9)...2.83...June 1941
..(9)...2.83...November 1936
(11)...2.79...July 1936
(12)...2.75...January 1905
(13)...2.68...December 1940
(14)...2.67...January 1941
(15)...2.57...January 1885
(16)...2.55...June 1997
(16)...2.55...November 1926
(18)...2.48...January 1942
(19) ..2.47...July 1983
(20)...2.43...March 1941

August 1941 was the last time that the PDO index was at least +3.00.

April highest on record:
2.31...1941

September highest on record:
2.24...1904

October highest on record:
2.35...1858

Highest PDO during 2000–23:
1.86...December 2014